世界耕地面积变化态势及驱动因素分析——以21个国家为例

发布时间：2018-04-30 22:05

本文选题：耕地 + 耕地面积总量　；参考：《世界农业》2017年03期

【摘要】：在世界人口不断增加、城市化水平显著提升而耕地资源急剧下降的背景下,探讨世界主要国家耕地面积变化态势及驱动因素对于中国未来耕地保护及粮食安全具有重要意义。本文选取耕地面积总量排名前10位国家以及根据《2010年世界人口状况报告》预测2050年人口将过亿的17个国家中的21个国家为研究对象,采用主成分与数理统计相结合的方法,分析各国在1961—2015年耕地面积总量与人均耕地面积变化情况,并探讨耕地面积变化的驱动因素。结果表明,1961—2015年,耕地面积总量呈递减趋势的国家越来越多,城市化水平提升、工业化推进、经济发展以及人口增长是其主要的驱动因素;而人均耕地面积递减的国家所占比例达85.71%,人口迅速增长和城市规模不断扩大是其主要驱动因素。
[Abstract]:Under the background of increasing world population, increasing urbanization level and sharp decrease of cultivated land resources, it is of great significance to explore the changing situation and driving factors of cultivated land area in major countries of the world for future cultivated land protection and food security in China. This paper selects the top 10 countries in the total cultivated land area and 21 of the 17 countries whose population will exceed 100 million in 2050 according to the State of World population report 2010 as the research objects, and adopts the method of combining principal component and mathematical statistics. The change of total cultivated land area and per capita cultivated land area in every country from 1961 to 2015 was analyzed, and the driving factors of cultivated land area change were discussed. The results show that from 1961 to 2015, more and more countries showed a decreasing trend of total cultivated land area. The urbanization level, industrialization, economic development and population growth are the main driving factors. The proportion of countries with decreasing per capita cultivated land area is 85.71, which is mainly driven by the rapid growth of population and the continuous expansion of urban scale.
【作者单位】：绵阳师范学院资源环境工程学院;
【基金】：县域经济中心(四川省重点实验室)项目“基于GIS的四川省县域经济空间差异研究”(xyzx1413)
【分类号】：F313

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