南昌市土地利用变化对碳排放影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-01 11:20

本文选题：碳排放 + 土地利用变化　；参考：《江西农业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：全球变暖、环境污染等关系到人类生存和健康等问题,我国当下经济高速发展、基础设施的扩建和人为调整土地利用,破坏生物圈内的碳循环,加重全球气候变暖,这些人类活动造成大气CO2增加量仅次于能源化石燃料。本研究是基于遥感、GIS技术和R/S模型分析。首先分析了南昌市2000-2015年四期各土地利用类型的面积和占比变化;然后通过阅读相关文献资料,对比相应模型计算方法,最后选取最适合南昌市的碳排放模型估计公式,根据当地的地理环境、气候条件以及数据获取的难易程度确定排放系数,计算选取时间跨度的碳排放量,通过四期的土地利用变化情况对碳排放从数量进行分析,随后利用R/S模型等分析,得出主要结论有:(1)研究阶段内,南昌市土地利用大致的变化趋势可概括为:数量变化方面,建设用地面积持续增加,耕地面积大规模减少,草地和未利用地面积也呈不断减少的趋势,林地面积经历了先增后减的波动变化,水域有所增多;在变化速度方面,建设用地还是处于快速扩张,耕地和未利用地则由早期的快速缩减到近年来减少幅度趋于平缓,园地林地草地和水域的波动幅度则较为平缓。(2)随着南昌市经济高速增长、工业化和城镇化的不断推进,基础设施快速建设,南昌市碳排放量增加十分明显。从研究初期的183.49×104t增长到研究末期的1056.93×104t,先后经历了三个不同阶段。第一阶段(2000-2005年):经济发展初期工业化水平较低,碳排放也处于一个增长相对比较缓慢的时期,年均碳排放增加26.6×104t。第二阶段(2005-2010年):经济快速发展工业化水平大幅提高,碳排放处于超高速增长时期。具体表现在,碳排放量从2005年的316.48×104t增长到2010年的1278.06×104t,增长三倍有余。第三阶段(2010—2015年):经济发展速度有所回落占碳排放很大比重的工业开始外迁,总碳排放也进入一个回落时期,从2010年的1278.06×104t下降到2015年的1056.93×104t,说明南昌市在发展经济同时还兼顾节能减排。(3)南昌市各种土地利用类型的碳排放差异明显。主导碳排放量是建设用地,其碳排放量占总碳排放量的95%以上,碳排放量从2000年的183.49×104t快速增加到2015年的1056.93×104t,年均增长58.23×104t。从表4-3中可以看出,南昌市未来很长一段时间建设用地还是主要的碳源。南昌市主要碳汇是园林地、水域用地,但是在整个研究期间面积变化较小,碳汇总量从10.57×104t增加到11.05×104t,增长了4.54%,增长量基本忽略。由于水域和林地的碳吸收量相对建设用地的碳排放量相差巨大,导致其他各种土地类型的碳汇效应并不明显。从各土地利用类型的碳排放量可知,耕地的碳排放量就大于林地、水域、草地、未利用地碳吸收量,并且总量相对建设用地相差较大,故这5种土地利用类型的碳源(或碳汇)效应对整个区域碳排放效应影响较小。(4)基于R/S模型分析结果表明:南昌市在节能减排、发展绿色经济、循环经济做出的努力是有目共睹,在未来的十几年中,碳排放量将随着科学技术、节能意识下碳排放总量逐年下降。
[Abstract]:Global warming and environmental pollution are related to the problems of human survival and health. In China, the rapid economic development, the expansion of the infrastructure and the artificial adjustment of land use, the destruction of the carbon cycle in the biosphere, and the aggravation of global warming, the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere is second only to energy fossil fuels. GIS technology and R/S model analysis. First, the area and the change of the land use types in the 2000-2015 years and four periods of the 2000-2015 years are analyzed. Then through the reading of relevant documents, the corresponding model calculation method is compared. Finally, the most suitable estimation formula for the carbon emission model of Nanchang is selected, according to the local geographical environment, climate conditions and data. The difficulty degree determines the emission coefficient, calculates the carbon emission of the time span, analyzes the carbon emissions from the four period of land use change, and then uses the R/S model to get the main conclusions: (1) in the study stage, the general trend of land use change in Nanchang can be summarized as the quantity change, The area of construction land continues to increase, the area of cultivated land has been reduced greatly, and the area of grassland and unused land has also been decreasing continuously. The area of woodland has experienced the fluctuation of first increase and decrease, and the increase of water area. In terms of the speed of change, the construction land is still in rapid expansion, and the cultivated land and unused land have been reduced from early rapid to recent years. In order to reduce the amplitude, the fluctuation range of the grassland and the water area of the garden is relatively slow. (2) with the rapid economic growth of Nanchang, the continuous promotion of industrialization and urbanization and the rapid construction of the infrastructure, the carbon emission of Nanchang is obviously increased. From the initial 183.49 x 104t to the end of the study, 1056.93 * 104t, successively There are three different stages. The first stage (2000-2005 years): the level of industrialization in the early stage of economic development is low, the carbon emission is also in a period of relatively slow growth, and the annual carbon emissions increase by 26.6 * 104t. second stages (2005-2010 years): the rapid economic development of industrialization level has been greatly improved, and the carbon emissions are in the period of ultra high speed growth. The volume of carbon emissions increased from 316.48 x 104t in 2005 to 1278.06 x 104t in 2010 and three times more than three times. The third stage (2010 - 2015): the industry began to move out of a large proportion of carbon emissions, and the total carbon emissions also entered a fall period, from 1278.06 x 104t in 2010 to 1056.93 in 2015. 104t, which shows that Nanchang has both energy conservation and emission reduction at the same time. (3) the carbon emissions of various types of land use in Nanchang are distinct. The dominant carbon emissions are construction land, and the carbon emissions account for more than 95% of the total carbon emissions, and the carbon emissions from 183.49 x 104t in 2000 to 1056.93 x 104t in 2015, and the annual average increase of 58.23 From table 4-3, we can see from table 4-3 that Nanchang city has a long period of construction land or main carbon source for a long time. The main carbon sinks of Nanchang are garden land and water use land, but in the whole period of study, the area changes small, the amount of carbon sinks increased from 10.57 x to 11.05 x 104t, increased by 4.54%, and the growth is basically ignored. Due to water and woodland Carbon emissions from other types of land are not obvious. The carbon emissions from various land use types show that the carbon emission of cultivated land is larger than that of woodland, water, grassland, and unused land carbon absorption, and the total amount is relatively large relative to the construction land, so the 5 kinds of soil are different. The effect of carbon source (or carbon sink) on the land use type has little influence on the carbon emission effect in the whole region. (4) the results of R/S model analysis show that the efforts of Nanchang in energy saving and emission reduction, the development of green economy and the recycling economy are obvious. In the next decade, the carbon emissions will be with the science and technology and the energy saving consciousness. Declining year by year.

【学位授予单位】：江西农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F301.24;X321

【参考文献】