预期价格变动对农户生产行为调整的非对称影响——基于西双版纳胶农调查分析

发布时间：2018-05-07 16:12

本文选题：天然橡胶 + 价格变动　；参考：《农业现代化研究》2017年03期

【摘要】：农产品价格变动下农户生产决策的动态调整是一个既关系农户福利又影响产业安全的经济问题。基于理性预期理论,以天然橡胶为研究对象,利用对云南省西双版纳自治州612户橡胶种植户的调查数据,分析天然橡胶价格预期变动下农户的生产调整行为,探讨影响农户价格反应行为的决定因素。结果表明,农户在预期橡胶价格变动幅度越大时选择生产调整行为的可能性越高,并且在预期价格上升时调整生产行为的概率显著大于下降时,橡胶价格下降时,29.58%的农户会采取反应措施,而预期橡胶价格上升时,农户采取反应措施的达53.92%,呈现显著的非对称性反应。受到户主和家庭社会经济特征及橡胶种植园生产条件等因素的影响,农户应对天然橡胶价格变动的生产调整行为存在异质性。研究结果对近年来天然橡胶价格下降背景下的胶农的福利、橡胶的可持续发展以及天然橡胶战略资源安全等相关政策的制定有着重要的现实意义。因此,建议相关部门制定相应政策引导农户合理调整橡胶种植结构,出台必要补贴政策,保障农户收益及其对橡胶种植的积极性,从而实现我国天然橡胶产业的再生产与可持续发展。
[Abstract]:The dynamic adjustment of farmers' production decision under the change of agricultural product price is an economic problem which not only relates to the welfare of farmers but also affects the safety of industry. Based on the theory of rational expectation, taking natural rubber as the research object, using the investigation data of 612 rubber growers in Xishuangbanna Autonomous Prefecture of Yunnan Province, this paper analyzes the production adjustment behavior of farmers under the change of price expectation of natural rubber. To explore the determinants of farmers' price response behavior. The results show that the higher the range of expected rubber price changes, the more likely farmers are to choose the production adjustment behavior, and the probability of adjusting the production behavior when the expected price rises is significantly greater than that when the price decreases. When the price of rubber decreased, 29.58% of the farmers would take response measures, and when the price of rubber was expected to rise, the farmers would take the response measures up to 53.92, showing a significant asymmetric response. Due to the social and economic characteristics of the head of household and the production conditions of the rubber plantation, there is heterogeneity in the production adjustment behavior of the farmers in response to the price change of natural rubber. The research results have important practical significance for the welfare of rubber farmers, the sustainable development of rubber and the safety of natural rubber strategic resources under the background of declining price of natural rubber in recent years. Therefore, it is suggested that relevant departments should formulate appropriate policies to guide farmers to rationally adjust the rubber planting structure, introduce necessary subsidy policies, and ensure farmers' income and their enthusiasm for rubber planting. So as to realize the reproduction and sustainable development of our country's natural rubber industry.
【作者单位】：北京大学现代农学院中国农业政策研究中心;中国农业大学经济管理学院食物与健康经济研究中心;
【基金】：德国联邦教育与研究部(FKZ:01LL0919) 国家自然科学基金项目(71333013,71673008)~~
【分类号】：F323.7;F326.12

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