湖南省农业生产效率实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-07 19:36

本文选题：农业生产效率 + DEA　；参考：《南华大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：湖南省作为中部地区农业大省,素有“鱼米之乡”的美称。据《湖南省统计年鉴2013》显示,截至2012年,目前全省农村人口3830.46万人,全省农作物耕种面积851.20万公顷。2012年全省农林牧渔业总产值为4904.1亿元,位居全国32个省级行政区的第6,占全省地区生产总值的22.13%。可见,农业仍然是湖南在国民经济中占据很大比重,研究湖南省农业生产效率情况及其效率变动研究,对于湖南省了解自身农业发展现状,农业发展政策的制定都具有一定的现实意义。因此本文采用DEA和Malmquist模型对湖南省2007-2012年农业生产效率及其变动情况进行研究,主要从以下几个方面进行研究。第一部分主要对2007-2012年湖南省农业生产的投入和产出情况进行了统计分析,投入要素主要考虑了农村劳动力、土地、机械动力、化肥及农村用电量等要素,农林牧渔总产值为产出要素进行了统计分析,主要对湖南省农业生产情况进行分析。第二部分选取基于投入导向的规模报酬可变的DEA模型对湖南省2007-2012年各地区农业生产效率进行静态测评,计算了其农业生产综合效率、纯技术效率和规模效率。研究发现:(1)湖南省2007-2012年湖南省农业生产综合效率稳步提升,尽在2009年出现了小幅度下滑。(2)从地区对比研究发现,各地区农业生产综合效率差异明显,张家界市最低,衡阳市最为有效。(3)进一步对农业生产综合效率分解的技术效率和规模效率研究发现,落后地区农业生产综合效率低的主要原因是农业生产规模效率较低。第三部分在湖南省农业生产效率静态研究的基础上,基于湖南2007-2012市级面板数据,采用DEA-Malmquist指数模型,运用DEAP2.1软件计算了期间各地区全要素生产率变化指数,对研究期间湖南省农业生产效率的变动原因进行了研究。研究发现:(1)2007-2012年期间湖南省农业全要素生产率年平均增长率为5.4%,说明这期间湖南省总体农业生产效率是有效的,从总体平均增长率的指数分解来看,期间湖南省农业全要素生产率增长主要来源于技术进步,对全要素生产率的贡献率为3.7%。(2)湖南省农业全要素生产效率具有明显的波动性,但总体表现出增长趋势,期间只有2008-2009年全要素生产率出现负增长。并结合以上研究,为湖南省发展农业生产、提高农业生产效率提供以下建议:(1)积极发展低碳农业发展模式,借鉴其他地区先进的农业生产模式;(2)加大多农业生产的科技投入,加大对农业生产技术的推广,提高农业生产技术效率;(3)重视农业生产规模效率的提升,特别是要重视土地集约化经营官管理,加速土地改革,提高农业管理水平。
[Abstract]:Hunan Province, as a major agricultural province in the central region, is known as the "land of fish and rice". According to the Statistical Yearbook 2013 of Hunan Province, as of 2012, the rural population of the province is 38.3046 million, and the total area under cultivation of crops in the province is 8.512 million hectares. In 2012, the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in the whole province was 490.41 billion yuan. The country ranks the sixth of 32 provincial administrative regions, accounting for 22.13 percent of the province's GDP. It can be seen that agriculture still occupies a large proportion of the national economy in Hunan. To study the situation and changes of agricultural production efficiency in Hunan Province, to understand the current situation of agricultural development in Hunan Province, The formulation of agricultural development policy has certain realistic significance. In this paper, DEA and Malmquist models are used to study the agricultural production efficiency and its changes in Hunan Province from 2007 to 2012, mainly from the following aspects. The first part mainly analyzes the input and output of agricultural production in Hunan Province from 2007 to 2012. The input factors mainly consider rural labor force, land, mechanical power, chemical fertilizer and rural electricity consumption. The output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery was statistically analyzed, and the agricultural production in Hunan Province was analyzed. In the second part, the DEA model of variable scale reward based on input guidance is selected to evaluate the agricultural production efficiency of Hunan province from 2007 to 2012. The comprehensive efficiency of agricultural production, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency are calculated. The study found that the comprehensive efficiency of agricultural production in Hunan Province increased steadily from 2007 to 2012, and declined by a small margin in 2009.) from the regional comparative study, it was found that the comprehensive efficiency of agricultural production in different regions was significantly different, and Zhangjiajie City had the lowest. Further study on the technical efficiency and scale efficiency of comprehensive efficiency decomposition of agricultural production found that the main reason for the low comprehensive efficiency of agricultural production in backward areas was the low scale efficiency of agricultural production. In the third part, on the basis of the static research of Hunan agricultural production efficiency, based on the provincial panel data from 2007 to 2012, using DEA-Malmquist index model and DEAP2.1 software, the author calculates the total factor productivity change index of each region during the period. The reasons for the change of agricultural production efficiency in Hunan Province during the study period were studied. The study found that the average annual growth rate of agricultural total factor productivity in Hunan Province was 5.4in the period 2007-2012, indicating that the overall agricultural production efficiency of Hunan Province was effective during this period, and from the perspective of the exponential decomposition of the overall average growth rate, During this period, the growth of agricultural total factor productivity in Hunan Province mainly comes from technological progress, and the contribution rate to total factor productivity is 3.70.The total factor production efficiency of Hunan province is obviously fluctuating, but it shows an overall trend of growth. There was only negative growth in total factor productivity in 2008-2009. Combined with the above research, the following suggestions are provided for Hunan Province to develop agricultural production and improve agricultural production efficiency.) to actively develop low-carbon agricultural development models, and to learn from the advanced agricultural production model of other regions, and to increase the scientific and technological input for multi-agricultural production. We should pay more attention to the promotion of scale efficiency of agricultural production, especially to the management of intensive land management officers, accelerate land reform and improve the level of agricultural management.
【学位授予单位】：南华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F327

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