基于CLUE-S模型的岔口小流域土地利用变化模拟研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 04:28

本文选题：土地利用变化 + 空间格局模拟　；参考：《山西农业大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：土地利用变化研究是环境变化研究领域中的主要内容,其空间分布格局的变化从本质上改变着生态系统的结构和功能,对资源利用、环境保护以及经济可持续发展产生深远的影响。CLUE-S模型是一种在小尺度范围内研究土地利用变化较为可靠的模型。本文以2003年、2008年、2013年的土地利用现状为基础数据,利用Logistic回归方法分析土地利用类型与驱动因子间的相关关系,应用CLUE-S模型模拟研究区2013年的土地利用格局,验证模型的适用性。结合研究区的土地利用情况,构建未来的土地利用情景方案,模拟分析不同情景下研究区2023年土地利用空间格局的变化。主要研究结论如下：1.通过土地利用类型的数量变化、动态度变化以及空间转移变化分析研究区的土地利用变化情况,可知研究区最主要的土地利用类型为耕地、林地和草地,在研究时段内流域的土地利用变化主要发生在2008-2013年期间,其中最主要的变化为耕地内部坡耕地向梯田的转化。2.根据研究区土地利用变化特点和模型要求,确定参与模拟的地类为坡耕地、梯田、沟坝地、沟川地、果园、林地、草地和农村居民点;根据数据来源选取可达性、地形地貌、土壤等驱动因素,采用Logistic回归法分析各地类与驱动因子的相关关系,回归结果平均ROC值为0.89,表明选取的驱动因子对土地利用类型的分布有较强的解释能力。3.2008和2013年模拟结果评价的Kappa系数分别为0.96和0.91,说明CLUE-S模型适用于研究区的土地利用变化模拟研究。通过设置区位偏好变量以反映研究区坡改梯田这一土地利用政策,模型基本可以正确地模拟出梯田的分布,否则模拟结果非常不理想,从侧面反映出模型对参数敏感,以及土地利用政策对空间格局变化的影响程度。4.构建基于趋势变化、农业发展、生态保护为目标的情景方案。将不同情景下的土地利用模拟结果与2013年现状叠加对比,分析研究区土地利用在数量和空间方面的变化情况。研究区未来的土地利用在发展过程中,沟坝地、沟川地、农民居民点等地类基本保持现状,坡耕地和草地减少转变为梯田、果园和林地;流域的西北部、东南部以及中部坡耕地分布的区域,是研究区未来土地利用可能发生变化的区域。
[Abstract]:The study of land use change is the main content in the field of environmental change. The change of its spatial distribution pattern essentially changes the structure and function of ecosystem and the utilization of resources. The CLUE-S model is a reliable model for the study of land use change on a small scale. Based on the data of land use status in 2003, 2008 and 2013, this paper uses Logistic regression method to analyze the correlation between land use types and driving factors, and uses CLUE-S model to simulate the land use pattern in the study area in 2013. The applicability of the model is verified. According to the situation of land use in the study area, the future land use scenarios were constructed, and the spatial pattern of land use in 2023 was simulated and analyzed under different scenarios. The main conclusions are as follows: 1. Based on the quantitative change, dynamic change and spatial transfer change of the land use type, the main land use types in the study area are cultivated land, forest land and grassland, and the main land use types in the study area are cultivated land, forest land and grassland. The change of land use occurred mainly in the period of 2008-2013, and the most important change was the transformation from sloping farmland to terrace. According to the characteristics of land use change in the study area and the requirements of the model, the land types involved in the simulation were determined as sloping farmland, terrace, ditch and dam land, gully and Sichuan fields, orchards, woodlands, grasslands and rural settlements, and the accessibility, topography and landform were selected according to the data sources. Soil and other driving factors were analyzed by Logistic regression method. The average ROC value of regression results is 0.89, which indicates that the selected driving factors have strong explanatory power to the distribution of land use types. The Kappa coefficients of the evaluation of simulation results in 2013 and 2013 are 0.96 and 0.91, respectively, indicating that the CLUE-S model is suitable for soil in the study area. Simulation of ground use change. By setting the location preference variable to reflect the land use policy of slope to terrace in the study area, the model can simulate the distribution of terraced fields correctly, otherwise, the simulation result is very unsatisfactory, which shows that the model is sensitive to parameters. And the influence degree of land use policy on spatial pattern change. Construct scenario scheme based on trend change, agricultural development and ecological protection. The results of land use simulation under different scenarios were compared with the present situation in 2013, and the changes in quantity and space of land use in the study area were analyzed. The future land use of the study area in the process of development, gully dam land, gully and Sichuan land, peasant settlements and other basic status, sloping farmland and grassland reduced into terraces, orchards and woodland; northwest of the basin, The distribution of sloping farmland in southeastern and central regions is the area where land use may change in the future.
【学位授予单位】：山西农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F301.2

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