基于生态足迹改进模型的云南省耕地利用可持续性研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 08:08

  本文选题：生态足迹 + 三角模型　； 参考：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：耕地作为人类赖以生存和发展的重要农业生产资料和战略资源之一,评价其利用可持续状况,对保障区域耕地资源动态平衡、协调区域人地关系和实现区域可持续发展具有极其重要的作用和意义。本研究选取典型山区省份云南省为研究对象,以第二次全国土地调查以来的2009~2014年为研究时段,以耕地生产的投入—产出为切入点,以耕地提供生产被人类消费的农产品及消纳耕地生产被消费的农产品所产生废弃物为落脚点,从创建耕地账户,划分足迹组分;分别采用传统生态足迹模型、引入应用碳足迹模型核算耕地生产性足迹、耕地生态性足迹2个子账户;修正传统生态足迹模型的均衡因子、产量因子等3个方面,改进传统的生态足迹模型。基于改进后的生态足迹模型核算云南省及各州市耕地生态足迹、耕地生态承载力,进而计算出耕地可持续压力指数、耕地可持续供需指数、耕地可持续效率指数,在此基础上,构建综合判定耕地利用可持续性的三角模型,并将耕地利用可持续性评价指数代入该模型,判定云南省及各州市耕地利用可持续性程度,分析其时空变化,提出耕地可持续利用的建议。本文的主要研究结论如下:1)从云南省耕地利用可持续性程度及其变化看,2009~2014年云南省耕地利用可持续状态经历了较强可持续(Ⅱ型)、一般可持续(Ⅲ型)、弱可持续(Ⅳ型)和弱不可持续(Ⅴ型)等4个状态类型,总体上呈现“W”型波动下降趋势。全省人均耕地生态足迹呈现持续上升、人均生态承载力呈波动下降;耕地可持续压力指数呈现增长趋势,耕地可持续供需指数呈现下降趋势,耕地可持续效率指数呈现下降趋势但指数值仍然较高,导致云南省耕地利用可持续状态总体上呈下降趋势。2)从云南省各州市耕地利用可持续性程度及其变化看,云南省16个州市的耕地利用可持续性程度普遍较低,多为一般可持续(Ⅲ型)、弱可持续性(Ⅳ型)、弱不可持续(Ⅴ型)等低等级的可持续性程度,且整体上呈现5种变化类型:(1)德宏州、昆明市、怒江州、红河州、曲靖市、文山州、临沧市和大理州呈现稳定型;(2)玉溪市、西双版纳州和保山市呈现“L”型下降变化;(3)雄州、昭通市和丽江市呈现反向“L”型变化;(4)普洱市呈现“N”型变化;(5)迪庆州呈现“V”型变化。3)从云南省耕地利用可持续性的空间格局看,2009~2014年云南省耕地利用可持续性的空间差异较大,耕地利用可持续性程度在空间分布上由滇东北区、滇中区向周边地区逐步增大,具体表现为:滇西南区滇西区滇东南区滇西北区滇东北区滇中区。4)云南省耕地可持续利用的提高应从政策层面、管理层面和技术层面着手。
[Abstract]:As one of the important means of agricultural production and strategic resources for human survival and development, the evaluation of the sustainable utilization of cultivated land can ensure the dynamic balance of cultivated land resources in the region. It is very important to coordinate the relationship between man and land and to realize regional sustainable development. In this study, Yunnan Province, a typical mountainous province, was selected as the research object, the period from 2009 to 2014 since the second National Land Survey was taken as the research period, and the input-output of cultivated land production was taken as the starting point. Taking cultivated land to provide agricultural products for human consumption and to absorb the wastes generated by cultivated land production and consumption of agricultural products as the foothold, from the establishment of cultivated land accounts, the footprint components are divided, and the traditional ecological footprint model is adopted respectively. The carbon footprint model was introduced to calculate the productive footprint of cultivated land and the ecological footprint of cultivated land to two sub-accounts, and the balance factor and yield factor of the traditional ecological footprint model were revised to improve the traditional ecological footprint model. Based on the improved ecological footprint model to calculate the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land in Yunnan and other cities, the sustainable pressure index of cultivated land, the index of sustainable supply and demand of cultivated land, and the index of sustainable efficiency of cultivated land are calculated. A triangle model is constructed to determine the sustainability of cultivated land use, and the evaluation index of cultivated land use sustainability is added to the model to determine the degree of cultivated land use sustainability in Yunnan and other cities and to analyze its temporal and spatial changes. Suggestions for sustainable utilization of cultivated land are put forward. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) from the perspective of the degree and changes of arable land use sustainability in Yunnan Province, from 2009 to 2014, the sustainable status of cultivated land use in Yunnan Province has experienced strong sustainability (type 鈪，

本文编号：1860627