国际粮价与国内粮价年度相关关系研究及十三五预测性建议

发布时间：2018-05-08 08:17

本文选题：国内粮食价格 + 国际粮食价格　；参考：《山东社会科学》2017年01期

【摘要】：随着我国经济的快速发展,粮食需求的持续性增长,我国已由粮食净出口国转变为粮食净进口国,而且粮食进口量逐年增加。国内粮食价格与国际粮食价格之间的相关关系也成为研究的热点。本文采用狭义的粮食概念,以小麦、稻谷、玉米三大主粮代表,在充分研究国内外文献的基础上,运用相关系数法分析国内粮食市场价格与国际粮食市场价格之间的相关关系。研究发现,三大主粮的价格与国际相同粮食价格的相关系数中,我国玉米价格与国际玉米价格的相关系数较大,小麦次之,而稻谷价格相关系数与国际大米价格的关联最小。对十三五期间的预测性建议,即继续坚持严格的粮食进口配额管理制度;提高我国对农业的支持力度;扩大国际农业合作范围;加强对国际农产品市场的监测;争夺国际大宗商品交易定价权和话语权。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy and the sustained growth of grain demand, China has changed from a net grain exporter to a net grain importing country, and the amount of grain imports has increased year by year. The correlation between domestic grain prices and international grain prices has also become a hot topic. In this paper, the narrow concept of grain is adopted, and the representative of wheat, rice and corn is used to analyze the correlation between the domestic grain market price and the international grain market price by using the correlation coefficient method on the basis of the full study of the literature at home and abroad. It is found that the correlation coefficient between corn price and international corn price is higher in China, followed by wheat price, and the correlation coefficient between rice price and international rice price is the least. The predictive suggestions for the 13th Five-Year Plan period are to continue to adhere to strict grain import quota management system; to enhance China's support for agriculture; to expand the scope of international agricultural cooperation; to strengthen the monitoring of the international agricultural product market; Competition for international commodity trading pricing power and voice.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F326.11

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