中国渔业用冰量的分析评估

发布时间：2018-05-14 16:19

本文选题：渔业 + 用冰量　；参考：《上海海洋大学学报》2017年06期

【摘要】：随着我国渔业生产的发展,渔业用冰需求量逐渐增大,而我国目前尚无官方公布的渔业用冰需求量统计数据,制冰企业无法根据市场需求调节生产规模;制冰企业对用冰消费市场结构和发展趋势不掌握,直接造成制冰企业生产存在盲目性。通过建立经典的线性回归模型,估算出1995—2016年渔业用冰量,并与全国水产冷库制冰量趋势线相拟合,得出两者趋势一致的结论。表明估算得到的结果相对客观准确,符合我国渔业用冰的实际情况。通过异方差检验、平稳性检验、协整检验等一系列计量检验,表明回归模型不存在异方差,变量之间存在稳定及长期均衡关系,因而估算结果具有严格的统计意义。从总体趋势上看,我国的渔业用冰量不断增长,说明我国渔业生产规模正呈现不断扩大的趋势。进一步研究表明:我国涉渔第一产业预估用冰量占比较大,为40.74%,但年均增长率为3.04%;涉渔第二产业预估用冰量在三个产业中占比最小,为12.17%,但年均涨幅最高,达到7.99%;涉渔第三产业预估用冰量占比最高,为47.09%,且年均增长率为4.73%。预计到2030年,渔业总用冰量达到1 927万吨。
[Abstract]:With the development of fishery production in China, the demand for ice for fishery is increasing gradually. However, there is no official statistics on the demand of ice for fishery in our country, so the scale of production can not be adjusted according to the market demand. Ice making enterprises do not grasp the structure and development trend of ice consumption market, which directly leads to blindness in ice making enterprises. Through the establishment of the classical linear regression model, the fishery ice volume from 1995 to 2016 was estimated and fitted with the trend line of the national fishery ice production, and the conclusion that the two trends were consistent was obtained. The results show that the estimated results are relatively objective and accurate, and accord with the actual situation of fishery ice in China. A series of econometric tests, such as heteroscedasticity test, stationary test and cointegration test, show that there is no heteroscedasticity in the regression model, and there are stable and long-term equilibrium relations among variables, so the estimation results have strict statistical significance. In view of the general trend, the increase of fishery ice use in our country shows that the scale of fishery production in our country is increasing continuously. Further research shows that the estimated ice volume in the primary industry is 40.74, but the average annual growth rate is 3.04, and the forecast ice volume in the secondary industry accounts for the smallest proportion of the three industries, 12.17, but the annual increase is the highest. The proportion of estimated ice in the third industry is the highest, 47.09, and the average annual growth rate is 4.73. By 2030, the total amount of ice used in fisheries is expected to reach 19.27 million tons.
【作者单位】：全国水产技术推广总站中国水产学会;上海海洋大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：2015国家社科重点项目(15ADZ009)
【分类号】：F326.4

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