1984～2014年农业种养结构变化对城乡居民食物消费升级的响应研究

发布时间：2018-05-15 01:30

本文选题：种养结构 + 食物消费　；参考：《中国农业资源与区划》2017年09期

【摘要】：[目的]基于1984~2014年中国城乡居民食物消费与种养用地面积变化的时间序列数据,通过分析农业种养结构与食物消费之间的互馈机制,从人口与资源维度、农业维度、市场维度多视角研究农业种养结构对城乡居民食物消费升级的响应。[方法]通过引进食物消费结构熵与种养结构熵,首先说明了食物消费与种养用地转型的新趋势,然后利用灰色关联分析将诱使各类种养用地面积变化的主导因素提炼出来。[结果](1)城乡居民食物消费结构熵与农业种养结构熵均向多元、均衡方向发展且年均增长率分别达到3.29%与1.73%,食物消费结构熵变化速度快于种养结构熵;(2)农业种养结构熵与城乡居民食物消费结构熵具有联动增减性。从相关系数看,城镇家庭食物消费对种养结构变化贡献率较农村地区高5.30%;(3)通过灰色分析发现,人口与资源条件、农业条件、市场条件中各指标均与种养结构的变化存在极强、强、中等关联度。其中,人均水资源量(A_1)、农业机械总动力(B_1)、农林牧渔水利业电力消费量(B_2)、CPI(C_3)又与种植业(Z)、畜牧业(X)、渔业(Y)变化存在r0.90的极强关联;(4)种植业内部结构也存在粮食作物与菜瓜果、糖油料等经济作物的不断竞争,1984年菜瓜果、粮食面积分别占种养用地总面积的2.02%、80.64%,2014年占比变为6.69%、57.47%,表现出菜瓜果缓慢扩张、粮食剧烈收缩的整体态势。[结论]农业种养结构因中国城乡居民的食物消费增厚而逐渐转型,为寻求农业种养结构调整的改良效应,实现供需相契,必须削减不合时宜的农产品供应、合理配置粮经饲用地以适应需求升级的情况。
[Abstract]:[objective] based on the time series data of food consumption and land area change between urban and rural residents in China from 1984 to 2014, this paper analyzed the reciprocal feeding mechanism between agricultural breeding structure and food consumption, and analyzed the population and resource dimensions and agricultural dimensions. The response of agricultural planting and raising structure to urban and rural residents' food consumption was studied from multiple perspectives of market dimension. [methods] by introducing food consumption structure entropy and planting structure entropy, the new trend of food consumption and cultivation land transformation was explained, and then the main factors inducing the change of land area were extracted by grey correlation analysis. [results] the entropy of food consumption structure and agricultural planting and raising structure of urban and rural residents were multivariate. The average annual growth rate of food consumption structure was 3.29% and 1.73, respectively. The change of food consumption structure entropy was faster than that of planting and raising structure entropy. From the correlation coefficient point of view, the contribution rate of urban household food consumption to the change of planting and raising structure is 5.30% higher than that in rural area. The grey analysis shows that the population and resources condition, agricultural condition, market condition all have very strong change with the planting and raising structure. Strong, moderate correlation. Among them, there is a strong correlation between water resources per capita, total power of agricultural machinery, consumption of electric power in agriculture, forestry, fishery and water conservancy, and crop planting, animal husbandry, fishery, etc.) there is a strong correlation between the changes of water resources per capita, total power of agricultural machinery, electric power consumption of agriculture, forestry, and fishery water conservancy, and the internal structure of grain crops, vegetables, melon and fruit. The continuous competition of economic crops such as sugar and oil in 1984 shows that the grain area accounted for 2.022% 80.64 of the total land area for planting and breeding, and the proportion in 2014 increased to 6.69%, 57.47%, showing the whole trend of slow expansion of vegetable, melon and fruit and sharp contraction of grain. [conclusion] the structure of agricultural planting and raising has been gradually transformed due to the thickening of the food consumption of Chinese urban and rural residents. In order to seek for the improvement effect of agricultural planting and raising structure adjustment and to realize the consonance between supply and demand, it is necessary to reduce the untimely supply of agricultural products. Reasonable allocation of food and forage land to adapt to the situation of demand upgrading.
【作者单位】：南京农业大学公共管理学院;曲阜师范大学地理与旅游学院;国土资源部海岸带开发与保护重点实验室;
【基金】：国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目“中国城乡居民食物消费转型及其土地利用变化响应研究”(201510446008)
【分类号】：F126.1;F326

【相似文献】