单产提升潜力衰减模型法在河南粮食单产中长期预测中的应用研究

发布时间：2018-05-27 17:08

本文选题：粮食安全 + 粮食单产　；参考：《自然资源学报》2017年09期

【摘要】：粮食单产水平的提高是河南粮食增产的主要原因,准确预测粮食单产水平,对科学判断河南粮食生产能力、制定粮食生产战略意义重大。论文针对目前直接以单产为变量建立的预测模型未能反映出单产增长的有限性和增速的减缓性之不足,研究提出了一种基于单产提升潜力衰减过程的单产预测方法。该方法利用河南耕地的平均单产潜力和历年实际单产数据,计算得到河南历年单产可提升潜力值;依据单产提升潜力理论上呈逐渐衰减之变化特点,可采用指数衰减函数建立单产提升潜力回归模型,以达到间接预测单产之目的。结果表明:1)单产提升潜力对数值与时间t之间具有高度负线性相关关系,适宜建立指数回归模型;2)回归模型V_q-V_t=e~(-0.009 5t+9.464 7)拟合优度R~2=0.973 1,在0.01置信水平上回归显著;3)预测模型反映出了单产提升潜力的有限性和衰减性,即单产潜力对单产水平的限制性,模型理论诠释清晰;4)利用河南1978—2000年的单产数据作为样本建立预测模型,用样本以外2001—2015年的实际单产作为观测值,对预测单产进行模型预测检验,结果表明该模型预测单产绝对误差均值为129.15kg/hm~2,仅为现有方法的0.17~0.82倍,且误差平稳,适宜于单产中长期预测;5)预测得河南2020、2025、2030年的平均单产分别为6 375、6 765、7 155 kg/hm~2,年均增幅为85.20~74.55 kg/hm~2,增速呈逐渐减缓趋势。
[Abstract]:The improvement of grain yield level is the main reason for increasing grain production in Henan Province. It is of great significance to predict grain yield level accurately and scientifically judge Henan grain production capacity and formulate grain production strategy. Aiming at the fact that the current prediction model based on unit yield as a variable can not reflect the limitation of unit yield growth and the deficiency of slowing growth rate, this paper proposes a forecasting method of unit yield based on the attenuation process of unit yield increase potential. Based on the average yield potential of cultivated land in Henan Province and the actual yield data over the years, the potential value of increasing yield per unit yield in Henan Province is calculated, and according to the characteristics of gradual attenuation in theory, the increase potential per unit yield in Henan Province is gradually reduced. The exponential attenuation function can be used to establish the regression model of the potential of increasing per unit yield to achieve the purpose of indirectly predicting the yield per unit yield. The results show that there is a highly negative linear correlation between the increase potential per unit yield and time t. It is suitable to establish an exponential regression model, V_q-V_t=e~(-0.009 5t 9.464 7) the goodness of fit is 0.973 1, and the regression is significant at the level of 0. 01 confidence. The prediction model reflects the limitation and attenuation of the potential for increasing per unit yield, that is, the potential per unit yield is limited to the level of unit yield. (4) using the data from 1978-2000 of Henan Province as the sample to establish the prediction model, and using the actual yield from 2001 to 2015 as the observed value, the model prediction test of the predicted yield is carried out. The results show that the average absolute error of the model is 129.15 kg / hm ~ (-2), which is only 0.17 ~ 0.82 times of that of the existing methods, and the error is stable. It is suitable for medium and long term prediction of yield per unit yield. It is found that the average yield of Henan 2020 / 2025 is 6375 / 2025kg / kg / hm ~ (-2), respectively, and the average annual growth rate is 85.20 / 74.55 kg / hm ~ (-1) / hm ~ (2) in 2030, and the growth rate is decreasing gradually.
【作者单位】：河南农业大学资源与环境学院;
【基金】：中国地质调查局地质调查计划项目(12120113007300)~~
【分类号】：F326.11

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