山东省棉花价格波动问题研究

发布时间：2018-06-04 01:11

本文选题：山东棉花 + 价格波动　；参考：《山东农业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近些年来,山东棉花的价格波动频繁,不利于棉花市场稳定和农民增收。本文利用定性、定量相结合的分析方法,探究了棉价波动的基本特征、相关影响及稳定建议。主要研究结论如下:1、运用趋势分析法对棉价的长期波动进行测算,发现2000年之后的棉价波动比之前更为剧烈,同时又对1990年以来的棉价波动进行了周期划分,共分为五个周期:(1)第一周期(1990-1995)。1990年到1991年价格几乎保持不变,1992、1993年棉花价格下降,1994、1995年价格又有所回升。(2)第二周期(1996-2000)。从1996年到1999年棉价持续下降,2000年棉价有所上升。(3)第三周期(2001-2003)。2001、2002年棉花价格下降,到了2003年棉价上升。(4)第四周期(2004-2011)。2004年价格下降,2005、2006年价格有所回升,2007年到2009年价格降低,2010年到2011年有所上涨。(5)第五周期(2012-)2014、2015年棉价降低,2016年有所回升。2、采用BN分析法对2000年到2016年的棉价短期波动进行分析,结果显示:(1)在分离确定性趋势时,棉花的确定性趋势是一直在稳定上升的,这是由棉花的生产成本增加及棉花的供给小于需求所致。(2)在分离周期成分时,把2000年到2016年的棉花月度价格划分成了6个完整的周期:(1)第一周期(2000.12-2002.8)其中棉价增加的月份有10个,减少的有11个。(2)第二周期(2002.9-2003.10)其中棉价增加的月份有9个,减少的有5个。(3)第三周期(2003.11-2005.5)其中棉价增加的月份有5个,减少的有14个。(4)第四周期(2005.6-2009.7)其中棉价增加的月份有21个,减少的有29个。(5)第五周期(2009.8-2010.11)其中棉价增加的月份有12个,减少的有4个。(6)第六周期(2010.12-2013.7)其中棉价增加的月份有14个,减少的有18个。(3)在分离随机性趋势时,发现这一成分正向影响着棉花价格的波动,且具有持久性。3、分析了影响棉价波动的因素。首先从定性的角度指出,供求关系,汇率、流动性问题以及进出口,前一期棉花价格以及国际棉价,粮食价格,棉花质量好坏,政策,相关制度健全性,棉花产业竞争力这几个方面对棉价波动有所影响,接着结合各方面的考虑从以上因素中选取了棉花净进口量,国际棉价,粮食价格,棉花产量以及前一期棉价这五个因素进行了定量分析,结果发现,前三点对棉价波动起着正向作用且影响较大;后两者对棉价波动起着负向作用且影响较小。4、分析了棉价波动对相关产业的影响。首先会影响农民收入,棉价高低决定着棉农收入的多少,而价格的长期不稳定波动势必给农民带来不良作用;其次会给纺织加工业带来坏处,一方面会减少国内加工企业的利益,阻碍企业的进步。另一方面会给出口公司带来影响,主要表现在不利于公司的出口正常运转,缩减公司的利益空间以及不利于国际竞争这三个方面。5、给出了稳定棉价、促进社会和经济发展的相关政策建议。(1)增强国家自身竞争力,确保棉价稳定。(2)在部分地方试点,继续完善、改进棉花收储政策。(3)政府加强监管,严厉处置违法的“农转非”,确保农作物正常种植面积。(4)确保棉花产业积极向上发展,增强其市场竞争。(5)重点培养龙头企业发展,实现棉花产业化经营。(6)监测、研究棉花等重要农产品市场。(7)进一步完善棉花市场机制,加强棉花市场的监管力度。(8)加大棉花产业投资力度。(9)大力支持优势棉区,优化棉花生产布局,建立棉花生产保护区。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the price fluctuation of cotton in Shandong is frequent, which is not conducive to the stability of cotton market and the increase of farmers' income. This paper uses qualitative and quantitative analysis methods to explore the basic characteristics of cotton price fluctuation, related effects and stability suggestions. The main conclusions are as follows: 1, the long-term fluctuation of cotton price is measured by the method of potential analysis, and 200 0 years later, the fluctuation of cotton price was more intense than before, and the cotton price fluctuation has been divided into five cycles since 1990. (1) the first cycle (1990-1995) from.1990 to 1991 was almost unchanged, the price of cotton declined in 19921993 years and the price of 19941995 years rose again. (2) second cycle (1996-2000). 1996 Cotton prices continued to decline from year to 1999, cotton prices rose in 2000. (3) third cycles (2001-2003).20012002 cotton prices decreased to 2003, cotton prices rose. (4) fourth cycles (2004-2011).2004 prices, 20052006 year prices rose, 2007 to 2009 prices decreased, 2010 to 2011 (5) fifth cycle (201 2-) the price of cotton was reduced in 20142015 years and.2 was picked up in 2016. BN analysis was used to analyze the short-term fluctuation of cotton price from 2000 to 2016. The results showed that: (1) the certainty trend of cotton was steadily rising in the separation of deterministic trend, which was caused by the increase of cotton production cost and the supply of cotton less than demand. (2) The monthly price of cotton from 2000 to 2016 is divided into 6 complete cycles: (1) the first cycle (2000.12-2002.8) in which there are 10 months of increase in cotton prices, 11 of the decrease, and (2) second cycles (2002.9-2003.10), among which the increase of cotton price is 9, and the decrease is 5. (3) the third cycle (2003.11-2005.5). Cotton prices increased by 5 months, reduced by 14. (4) fourth cycles (2005.6-2009.7) in which cotton prices increased by 21, reduced by 29. (5) fifth cycles (2009.8-2010.11) in which cotton prices increased by 12, reduced by 4. (6) sixth week (2010.12-2013.7) of the increase in cotton prices of the month has 14, reduced by 18 (3) when the trend of randomness is separated, it is found that this component is affecting the fluctuation of cotton price and has a persistent.3, and analyses the factors that affect the fluctuation of cotton price. First, from the qualitative point of view, the relationship between supply and demand, exchange rate, liquidity and import and export, the price of the first phase of cotton and international cotton price, grain price and quality of cotton, The policy, the integrity of the system and the competitiveness of the cotton industry have some influence on the fluctuation of cotton price. Then, according to all aspects, the net import of cotton, the international cotton price, the grain price, the cotton yield and the first phase of cotton price are quantitatively analyzed. The results show that the first three points are on the cotton price wave. It plays a positive role and has a greater impact; the latter two plays a negative effect on the fluctuation of cotton price and has a smaller influence on the.4, and analyzes the influence of the fluctuation of cotton price on the related industries. First, it will affect the farmers' income, the price of cotton is determined by the income of cotton farmers, and the long-term unstable fluctuation of the price will bring bad effects to the farmers; secondly, it will give textile to the textile. The disadvantages of the processing industry, on the one hand, will reduce the interests of the domestic processing enterprises and impede the progress of the enterprises. On the other hand, it will bring the influence to the export companies, mainly in the three aspects, which are not conducive to the normal operation of the export of the company, the reduction of the interest space of the company and the disadvantageous to the international competition,.5, the stability of the cotton price, the promotion of the society and the economy. (1) strengthen the national competitiveness of the country to ensure the stability of the cotton price. (2) pilot in some places, continue to improve, improve the cotton storage and storage policy. (3) the government to strengthen supervision, strict disposal of illegal "agricultural transfer", to ensure the normal growth of crops. (4) to ensure the positive development of the cotton industry and enhance its market competition. (5) focus on developing the development of leading enterprises and realizing the industrialized operation of cotton. (6) monitoring and studying the important agricultural products market such as cotton. (7) further improve the cotton market mechanism and strengthen the supervision of the cotton market. (8) increase the investment in cotton industry. (9) vigorously support the advantage cotton area, optimize the distribution of cotton production, and establish a cotton production protection area.
【学位授予单位】：山东农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.7

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