高寒生态脆弱区农户对气候变化的感知——以甘南高原为例

发布时间：2018-06-07 00:10

本文选题：甘南高原 + 农户　；参考：《生态学报》2017年02期

【摘要】：气候变化作为人类当前面临的最严峻挑战,已对生态脆弱区农户生计产生严重的负面影响,明确农户对气候变化的感知对于制定有效的气候变化适应政策非常关键。以甘南高原为研究区,基于入户调查数据,构建了农户对气候变化的感知度指数,分析了甘南高原农户的气候变化感知特征,并采用经济计量模型分析了影响农户气候变化感知的关键因素。结果表明:(1)甘南高原农户对气温变化的感知能力强于对降水变化的感知,并对近期发生的、规模较大、影响较严重的极端天气记忆较深;(2)农户对气候变化的严重性及可能性感知较强烈,感知到的适应成本与适应功效也较高,但感知到的自我效能较弱,其气候变化严重性、可能性、适应功效、自我效能及适应成本感知度指数分别为3.76、3.34、3.43、2.85、3.53,且农区农户对气候变化的风险感知与适应感知均最强,半农半牧区次之,纯牧区最弱;(3)气候变化信息、农户的客观适应能力、农户对社会话语的信任度、适应激励均会影响农户的气候变化感知,其中,适应激励为最关键的影响因素,其与农户的气候变化适应功效感知、自我效能感知均呈正相关,而与风险感知、适应成本感知呈负相关。最后,针对如何提高农户气候变化感知的准确度,增强农户应对气候变化的能力,提出相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Climate change, as the most severe challenge facing mankind, has had a serious negative impact on the livelihood of farmers in ecologically fragile areas. It is crucial to make clear the farmers' perception of climate change in order to formulate effective climate change adaptation policies. Taking the Gannan Plateau as the research area, based on the data of household survey, this paper constructs the index of farmers' perception of climate change, and analyzes the characteristics of farmers' perception of climate change in Gannan Plateau. The key factors influencing farmers' perception of climate change are analyzed by econometric model. The results show that the farmers in the Gannan Plateau have stronger perception of temperature changes than precipitation changes, and have a larger scale for recent events. (2) Farmers have a stronger perception of the severity and possibility of climate change, and the perceived adaptation costs and effects are also higher, but their perceived self-efficacy is weaker and their climate change severity is more severe. The index of possibility, adaptive efficacy, self-efficacy and cost perception of adaptation were 3.766 / 3.34 / 3.435 / 2.85 / 3.53, respectively, and farmers' perception of risk and adaptation to climate change was the strongest in agricultural areas, followed by semi-rural and semi-pastoral areas, and the weakest climate change information in pure pastoral areas. Farmers' objective adaptive ability, farmers' trust in social discourse and adaptive incentives will affect farmers' perception of climate change. Among them, adaptive incentives are the most critical factors, and they are sensitive to farmers' climate change adaptation efficacy. Self-efficacy perception is positively correlated, but negatively correlated with risk perception and adaptive cost perception. Finally, some policy suggestions on how to improve the accuracy of farmers' perception of climate change and enhance their ability to cope with climate change are put forward.
【作者单位】：西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院;中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41361106,41471116) 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NECT-11-0910) 甘肃省高校基本科研业务费项目
【分类号】：S162;F323.6

【相似文献】