基于农户行为的浙江农村宅基地流转判别模型构建研究

发布时间：2018-06-09 01:21

本文选题：宅基地流转 + 影响因素　；参考：《中国农业资源与区划》2017年04期

【摘要】：[目的]探讨现阶段如何引导政府科学管理宅基地和农户合理利用宅基地,建立基于农户及其经济行为的宅基地管制调控机制。[方法]采用理论推理和实证分析相结合的方法对农村宅基地管制中农户和政府的决策模式进行分析,对浙江省朱庙村等20个村庄进行问卷调查,以判别分析模型为基础,运用数学建模、调查问卷和数据模拟分析等方法构建较为完善的农村宅基地流转判别模型,并投入实际运用验证。依据影响因素和模型分析结果,从取得、流转、退出等3个方面构建宅基地管制框架。[结果]现行管理制度下宅基地流转的资金补偿、家庭人口数、宅基地面积、闲置宅基地面积大小等4个因素对农户的宅基地流转意愿的判别影响不太显著,年纯收入、受教育年限、年龄及宅基地升值预期等4个因素对农户的宅基地流转意愿的判别影响不太显著;将农户流转意愿判别模型投入实际运用验证,发现模型的判别效果良好。[结论]影响农户是否愿意将宅基地流转出去的主要因素有资金补偿、家庭人口、宅基地面积、闲置宅基地面积。
[Abstract]:[objective] to probe into how to guide the government to manage the homestead scientifically and how to make rational use of the Homestead, and to establish the regulation and control mechanism of the Homestead based on the farmers and their economic behavior. [methods] the decision models of farmers and government in rural homestead control were analyzed by combining theoretical reasoning and empirical analysis. A questionnaire survey was conducted in 20 villages in Zhumiao Village, Zhejiang Province, based on the discriminant analysis model. By means of mathematical modeling, questionnaire and data simulation analysis, a more perfect discriminant model of rural homestead circulation is constructed, and put into practical application to verify it. According to the influencing factors and the results of model analysis, this paper constructs the regulatory framework of homestead from three aspects: acquisition, circulation and withdrawal. [results] under the current management system, four factors, such as the compensation of funds, the number of family, the area of house land and the size of idle land area, had little effect on the determination of the willingness of homestead circulation of farmers, and the net income per year was not significant. Four factors, such as years of education, age and expectation of homestead appreciation, had no significant influence on the determination of farmers' willingness to transfer homestead, and it was found that the discriminant effect of the model was good when the discriminant model was put into practical application. [conclusion] the main factors influencing farmers' willingness to transfer homestead are fund compensation, family population, homestead area and idle homestead area.
【作者单位】：浙江财经大学;五邑大学;中国国家气象局;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“环杭州湾农户行为对土地利用的影响机理及其调控机”(11YJAZH071) 国土资源部软科学研究课题“两岸‘共同’视角下平潭综合实验区土地管理制度与政策的创新研究”(201344)
【分类号】：F321.1

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