增长背景下我国粮食进口需求及弹性分析——基于主要品种的有界协整分析

发布时间：2018-06-10 07:54

本文选题：粮食进口 + 需求　；参考：《中央财经大学学报》2017年01期

【摘要】：2003年以来,我国粮食进口需求不断增长,粮食进出口大致平衡的状态已发生了根本改变,粮食总量和主要粮食品种已经全面净进口,进口的快速增长引发了关于我国粮食安全的担忧,进口需求及增长原因值得深入探讨。笔者分析了我国粮食进口需求的增长趋势及原因,并选取了2003—2013年的数据,建立粮食进口需求模型,并采用有界协整的方法,重点分析了小麦、玉米和大米三大品种的进口需求,以及各自的收入和价格弹性。研究发现:在长期,国际国内相对价格、收入以及粮食进口需求三者之间存在着稳定均衡的关系;相对价格对进口需求的影响更为显著,价格下降,玉米、大米以及小麦的进口需求会显著增加,其中小麦最敏感;在长期,收入增长将进一步促进玉米进口增长,但对大米和小麦的进口影响有限。与短期相比,长期内相对价格对各品种的进口需求影响更大。因此,我国需要从长期和短期两个期间,国际国内两个市场,并基于品种差异来防范进口过快增长风险。
[Abstract]:Since 2003, China's grain import demand has been increasing, and the balance of grain import and export has been fundamentally changed. The total grain quantity and main grain varieties have been fully net imported. The rapid growth of imports has raised concerns about China's food security, and the import demand and the reasons for its growth are worthy of further discussion. The author analyzes the increasing trend and reason of China's grain import demand, selects the data from 2003 to 2013, establishes the model of grain import demand, and analyzes wheat with the method of bounded cointegration. Three major varieties of corn and rice import demand, as well as their income and price elasticity. It is found that in the long run, there is a stable and balanced relationship among relative price, income and food import demand, and the influence of relative price on import demand is more significant. Import demand for rice and wheat will increase significantly, with wheat being the most sensitive; in the long run, income growth will further boost corn imports, but the impact on rice and wheat imports will be limited. Compared with the short-term, the long-term relative prices have a greater impact on the import demand of various varieties. Therefore, China needs to guard against the risk of excessive import growth from the long-term and short-term periods, international and domestic markets, and based on the variety differences.
【作者单位】：武汉轻工大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家社科青年项目“基于风险与收益分析的我国粮食‘适度进口’问题研究”(项目编号:14CJY081) 湖北省教育厅人文社科重点项目“我国粮食进口增长趋势及风险分析”(项目编号:16D064) 国家自科青年项目“农业发展的低碳转型:进程评估、影响因素及推进策略”(项目编号:71203170)
【分类号】：F326.11;F752.61

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