农民工消费的城乡二元性研究

发布时间：2018-06-17 16:18

本文选题：农民工 + 二元消费　；参考：《陕西师范大学》2015年博士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,随着计划经济向市场经济体制的逐步过渡,被禁锢的生产要素开始转移。受益于家庭联产承包责任制的实施,农业的生产效率得以大幅提升,农村劳动力的供求关系发生了根本性变化,剩余劳动力开始了流出农村的历史征程。其转移方式有体制内和体制外两种,体制内主要以高等教育、城市建设征地及参军转业为主,而体制外则以农民自发地外出务工为代表。农村剩余劳动力在成为我国城乡二元体制弥合受益群体的同时,也承受着城乡二元结构演进滞后、不彻底之痛,所以就出现了虽在城市生活就业,但依然保持农民身份的“农民工”群体。农民工,“农民”是其身份,“工”则指其职业。这种职业与身份的脱离本身就是中国城乡二元结构的体现,而农民工的这种状况势必会对其生活消费造成影响。截止2014年底,我国城镇化率已达到54.6%,但按户籍人口计算,真实城镇化率仅为37.1%,两者的统计差异主要在于以农民工为主体的流动人口。农民工因其人数的庞大规模及快速增长的收入水平被众多学者誉为消费市场的“第三极”,再加上我国政府急于扩大内需以转变经济增长方式的迫切要求,国内学者有关农民工的研究视角经历了由“生产工具”到“消费主体”的转移。当下,农民工消费已成为国内学界研究的一大热点命题。作为社会高度关注的一个群体,农民工在为中国经济高速增长做出巨大贡献的同时,并未享受到城市居民的工资收入和福利待遇,这对其而言是不公平的。农民工进城务工后,必然会面临个人与家庭消费的城乡空间分割状况。由于进城务工的暂时性及预期收入的不稳定,农民工出于自身与家人消费的均衡考虑,最终形成了“进城挣钱,回乡消费”的消费模式,进而引发了有关城乡收入分割、城乡消费分布以及消费行为、规模、结构的城乡差异等诸多问题,笔者将之统称为农民工消费的城乡二元性现象。与国内学者单一地研究农民工消费水平、结构、行为及影响因素不同,本文遵循“理论溯源—现状描述—机理探析—实证分析—趋势预判—社会效应—对策建议”的基本思路,在翔实梳理有关农民工城乡二元消费国内外文献的基础上,结合农民工城乡二元消费的具体特征,以绝对收入理论和生命周期理论为建模依据,聚焦于收入性质、城市融入、身份认同、社会保障及消费信贷等视角,试图探寻农民工城乡二元消费的形成机理,进而对二元性消费的发展趋势和社会效应展开分析,最终提出弥合农民工消费二元性的对策建议。本文主要的创新性成果如下：(1)农民工城乡二元消费的具体特征。首先,农民工多以汇款解决其城乡收入分割问题,多数农民工汇款占收入的比例低于30%。其次,农民工进城之后,其个人消费普遍增长,但就未来城乡消费分布而言,仅有25%的农民工愿意将其收入增值的一半用于城市消费。最后,伴随着农民工在城乡之间“候鸟”式的迁徙,其两栖消费特征尤为突出。(2)农民工城乡二元消费的形成机理。以凯恩斯的绝对收入假说和生命周期消费理论为建模基础,同时以1071份有效调研问卷为数据来源的实证分析结果表明,工资性收入比例的增长、市民身份认同意识的增强、城市融入程度的加深以及消费信贷政策的完善都有利于城乡二元消费的弥合,而预期收入增长的不稳定以及城镇社会保障体系的排斥则效果相反。以实证结论为基础,围绕着体制根源、核心要素、迁徙模式、个体特征及产品供给五个视角凝练农民工二元消费的形成机理。(3)农民工城乡二元消费的趋势预判。2025年,我国农民工总量有望达到峰值3亿人,而农民工未来流向区域更多地集中于重庆、陕西、河南、湖北及四川等西部省市。据本文测算,2013年农民工的收入和消费的GDP占比分为11.3%和5.51%,农民工群体无疑还具有相当的消费潜力。就当下而言,由于政府并不具备快速推动农民工市民化的能力,再加之新生代农民工的未来生活预期并非返回农村,因此,农民工未来消费会更侧重于城市地区,但城乡二元消费短期难以彻底消除。(4)农民工城乡二元消费的社会效应。农民工在对城镇低端消费作出巨大贡献的同时,其汇款也已成为农村地区的重要收入来源,而农民工作为城乡居民消费示范效应的中介载体,对改变传统消费观念和提升消费结构具有重要意义。同时,我们也要看到,农民工在城市长期的“边缘”地位,使其消费陷入到一种两难困境,而新生代农民工的炫耀性与符号消费行为的盛行,势必会挤压其教育型消费开支,削弱市民化能力,从而延缓城镇化进程。(5)弥合农民工消费城乡二元性的对策建议。农民工城乡二元消费的解决出路跟其最终流向有关。对于农民工而言,要么融入城市,要么返回农村家乡。只有农民工不陷入到城乡双重“边缘”境地,他才有可能摆脱这种消费困境。在农民工未来生活的筹划当中,政府扮演了关键角色。因此,政府要切实重视农民工的消费困境,愿意为农民工提供均等化的公共产品服务,包括一系列消费政策支撑,创造农民工融入城市或返回农村的良好氛围,督促企业改变生产产品的市民偏好,培养农民工未来的消费热点。只有如此,随着时间的积累,农民工才有可能改变城乡二元消费的两难困境。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, with the gradual transition from the planned economy to the market economy system, the imprisoned production factors have begun to shift. Benefiting from the implementation of the household contract responsibility system, the efficiency of agricultural production has been greatly improved, the supply and demand of rural labor has changed radically, and the surplus labor has begun to flow out of the countryside. There are two kinds of way of transfer, which are in system and outside the system. The system mainly consists of higher education, urban construction land expropriation and joining the army, while the system is represented by the migrant workers spontaneously outside the system. The rural surplus labor has become the beneficiary group in the two yuan system of urban and rural areas in China, and also bears the evolution of the two yuan structure in urban and rural areas. There is a lag and no thorough pain, so there is a "peasant worker" group, who still maintains the identity of the peasant in the city life, but the peasant worker, "farmer" is its identity, and the "worker" refers to its occupation. The separation of the occupation and identity is the embodiment of the two yuan structure in the urban and rural areas of China, and the situation of the migrant workers is bound to be born to it. By the end of 2014, the urbanization rate in China has reached 54.6%, but the real urbanization rate is only 37.1% according to the census register population. The statistical difference between the two is mainly based on the migrant workers as the main body. The peasant workers are praised by many scholars for the consumption market because of the large scale of the number of migrant workers and the rapid increasing income level. "The third pole", coupled with the urgent demand that our government is eager to expand domestic demand in order to change the way of economic growth, the research perspective of domestic scholars on migrant workers has gone through the transfer of "production tools" to "consumer subject". At the moment, the consumption of migrant workers has become a hot topic in the study of domestic academics. As a group, migrant workers have made great contributions to the rapid economic growth of China, while they do not enjoy the wages and benefits of urban residents, which is unfair to them. After migrant workers come into the city, they are bound to face the situation of urban and rural space division. The instability of income, migrant workers from their own and family consumption balanced consideration, finally formed the "go to the city to earn money, return to the rural consumption" consumption pattern, and then caused the urban and rural income segmentation, urban and rural consumption distribution and consumption behavior, scale, structure of urban and rural differences and many other problems, the author collectively referred to as the rural rural migrant workers in urban and rural areas. Two yuan phenomenon. With the domestic scholars studying the consumption level, structure, behavior and influence factors of migrant workers in a single way, this article follows the basic idea of "theoretical tracing - current description - mechanism analysis - Empirical Analysis - trend prejudgement - social effect - Countermeasures" and combing the domestic and foreign language of two yuan consumption of rural migrant workers in Xiang Shi. Based on the specific characteristics of the two yuan consumption of urban and rural migrant workers, based on the theory of absolute income and the theory of life cycle, we focus on the nature of income, urban integration, identity, social security and consumer credit, trying to explore the formation mechanism of two yuan consumption of rural migrant workers, and then to the development of two yuan consumption. Analysis of the potential and social effects, and finally put forward the countermeasures and suggestions to bridge the two yuan of migrant workers' consumption. The main innovative results of this paper are as follows: (1) the specific characteristics of the two yuan consumption of rural migrant workers in rural and rural areas. First, the migrant workers can solve the problem of urban and rural income segmentation with remittance, and the proportion of the majority of farmers' remittances to income is lower than that of 30%.. After entering the city, its personal consumption is increasing, but only 25% of the migrant workers are willing to use half of their income increment for urban consumption in terms of the distribution of urban and rural consumption in the future. Finally, the characteristics of the amphibious consumption are particularly prominent with the migrant workers' migrating between urban and rural "migratory birds". (2) the formation mechanism of two yuan consumption of rural migrant workers in rural and urban areas. The empirical analysis based on Keynes's absolute income hypothesis and life cycle consumption theory and 1071 valid questionnaires as data sources shows that the increase in wage income ratio, the enhancement of citizen identity awareness, the deepening of urban integration and the consummation of consumer credit policy are beneficial to urban and rural two. The combination of yuan consumption, the instability of expected income growth and the exclusion of urban social security system is opposite. Based on empirical conclusions, the formation mechanism of two yuan elimination fee of migrant workers is condensed around five perspectives of institutional root, core elements, migration mode, individual characteristics and product supply. (3) the trend of two yuan consumption of rural migrant workers in urban and rural areas. In.2025 years, the total amount of migrant workers in China is expected to reach a peak of 300 million people, while the future flow of migrant workers in the region is more concentrated in the western provinces and cities of Chongqing, Shaanxi, Henan, Hubei and Sichuan. According to this paper, the income and consumption of migrant workers in 2013 are 11.3% and 5.51%, and the group of migrant workers will undoubtedly have considerable consumption potential. At the moment, because the government does not have the ability to quickly promote the citizenization of migrant workers, the future life of the new generation of migrant workers is not expected to return to the countryside. Therefore, the future consumption of migrant workers will focus more on urban areas, but the two yuan consumption in urban and rural areas is difficult to eliminate in the short term. (4) the social effect of two yuan consumption of rural rural migrant workers. While migrant workers make a great contribution to the low end consumption of cities and towns, the remittance has also become an important source of income in rural areas. As an intermediary carrier of the demonstration effect of urban and rural residents' consumption, migrant workers are of great significance to change the traditional consumption concept and improve the consumption structure. "Edge" status, make its consumption into a dilemma, and the popularity of the new generation of migrant workers' ostentatious and symbolic consumption behavior will be bound to squeeze their educational consumption expenditure, weaken the citizenization capacity, and thus delay the urbanization process. (5) to bridge the two yuan of rural migrant workers in urban rural areas. The rural rural migrant workers' urban and rural two yuan consumption The solution is related to its final flow. For the migrant workers, they either merge into the city or return to the rural home. Only the migrant workers do not fall into the dual "fringe" of the urban and rural areas, can he get rid of this consumption dilemma. In the planning of the future life of migrant workers, the government plays a key role. Therefore, the government should pay more attention to it. The consumption dilemma of migrant workers is willing to provide equal public product services for migrant workers, including a series of consumer policy support, create a good atmosphere for migrant workers into the city or return to the countryside, supervise enterprises to change the public preferences of production products, and cultivate the hot spots of migrant workers in the future. Only in this way, peasant workers are accumulated with the accumulation of time. It is possible to change the dilemma of two yuan consumption in urban and rural areas.
【学位授予单位】：陕西师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.8

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