气候变化背景下三江平原耕地利用变化研究

发布时间：2018-06-18 21:36

本文选题：气候变化 + 耕地　；参考：《东北农业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来气候变化显著,气候变化通过改变耕地的水热条件进而对耕地种植界限、物候期、生产潜力和种植结构布局影响深远。三江平原作为我国重要的商品粮基地,气候变化和耕地布局变化显著。因此,分析近年来三江平原气候变化特征、耕地变化特征以及气候变化对耕地的影响较有科研意义和实践意义。本文利用2000-2015年间三江平原耕作期(5月-9月)的均气温和降水量数据分析耕作期气候月间差异、年际差异、空间分布差异、距平和累积距平特征以及气候趋势系数差异,以期对研究区气候现状及变化进行简要分析;利用2000、2005、2010以及2015年的土地利用数据分析研究区耕地数量与规模的变化、内部结构变化、空间差异与演变以及景观特征,以期对研究区耕地的变化与现状进行简要分析;进而分析不同气候条件下耕地的分布特征以及气候变化对耕地及其内部结构的影响。本文的主要内容及结论如下:(1)耕作期气候因子变化分析。2000-2015年三江平原耕作期均温平均值为18.05℃,温差最大为1.62℃,气候倾向率为0.075℃/10a,长期形成偏冷期—波动期—偏暖期的变化趋势。时间差异小而空间差异大,低温区主要集中在高程较大的区域。气候趋势系数和倾向率在空间上呈现较为明显的经向地带性,同时呈由东向西递减的规律。农区和垦区耕作期均温变化趋势相似,且垦区的均温优势随着时间的推移呈增长态势。2000-2015年三江平原耕作期降水量平均值为428.25mm,差值最大为198.51mm,气候倾向率为88.12mm/10a,长期形成少雨期—多雨期的变化趋势。空间差异显著,有较明显的经向地带差异。农区和垦区耕作期降水量均值变化趋势相似,农区降水量优势随着时间的推移呈减少态势。抚远县、富锦市部分区域、饶河县部分区域和宝清县部分区域的增加趋势较为明显。(2)耕地利用变化分析。2000-2015年间耕地面积略有增加,但内部结构快速调整。耕地总面积由568.35万hm~2增至579.91万hm~2,旱地面积持续减少同时水田面积持续增加,二者比例由3.8:1变至1.2:1,同时水田的变化较旱地和耕地总量相比更为显著。耕地重心变化较小,旱地大之,水田重心变化最大。2000-2015年垦区垦殖指数均值约为农区的1.75倍。农区旱地与水田的比例由6.35减至2.43,垦区旱地与水田的比例由2.32减至0.50。2000-2015年间垦区旱改水面积约为农区的1.85倍,水改旱面积差异不大,其中建三江管理局和牡丹江管理局旱改水趋势明显。对垦区而言,水田较旱地比更为聚集,人为干扰程度更低,但是斑块面积差异更大,而农区则相反。(3)气候变化对耕地利用的影响分析。气温对耕地分布优势度的影响要大于降水对其的影响,降水量的缺失可以通过灌溉进行弥补,同时降水过量不利于耕作,气候条件较差(低温少雨)的地区耕地面积较少。降水和气温的变化对旱地的优势种植影响较小,气温变化对水田的优势种植影响较大。垦区不论在气候变化幅度还是耕地变化幅度上都高于农区,但是耕作期气温升高幅度对农区耕地(旱地和水田)面积变化幅度影响的效率高于垦区,耕作期降水量升高幅度对农区和垦区耕地(旱地和水田)面积变化幅度影响的效率相差不大。随着耕作期降水量增加(增温)幅度的增加,耕地和水田动态度表现出增加的趋势,同时水田动态度的增加幅度较大,而旱地动态度表现出减少的趋势。耕作期气温变化幅度对耕地、旱地和水田动态度的影响在强度和程度上大于降水量对其的影响。随着区域耕作期降水量增加(增温)幅度的升高,旱改水面积变化度表现出增加的趋势,而水改旱面积变化度表现不显著。研究耕地数量、内部结构组成的现状与变化,气候因子(气温和降水)的变化以及气候对耕地的影响为耕地种植结构调整、作物适应性种植、耕地合理有效地布局提供依据。
[Abstract]:In recent years, climate change has been remarkable. Climate change has a profound influence on cultivated land by changing the water and heat conditions of cultivated land, planting boundary, phenophase, production potential and planting structure. As an important commodity grain base in China, the climate change and the distribution of cultivated land have changed significantly in Sanjiang plain. Therefore, the characteristics of climate change in the Sanjiang plain in recent years are analyzed. The characteristics of cultivated land change and the influence of climate change on cultivated land have more scientific and practical significance. In this paper, the temperature and precipitation data of the cultivation period of the Sanjiang plain (-9 month of May) were used to analyze the climate monthly difference, the interannual difference, the spatial distribution difference, the anomaly and the cumulative anomaly, and the poor climate trend coefficient. With a view to the brief analysis of the climate status and changes in the research area, the changes in the quantity and scale of cultivated land, the changes in the internal structure, the spatial difference and evolution and the characteristics of the landscape are analyzed by using the land use data in 200020052010 and 2015, in order to analyze the change and present situation of the cultivated land in the study area. The distribution characteristics of cultivated land and the influence of climate change on cultivated land and its internal structure under the same climate conditions. The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the average temperature of the tillage period in Sanjiang plain is 18.05, the maximum temperature difference is 1.62, and the climate tendency is 0.075 centigrade at 0.075. The change trend of cold period - fluctuating period - warm period. The time difference is small but the spatial difference is large. The low temperature area is mainly concentrated in the high elevation area. The climate trend coefficient and the tendency rate show more obvious meridional zonality in space, while the trend is decreasing from east to west. The average temperature advantage of the region shows an increasing trend with time. The average value of the precipitation in the farming period of Sanjiang plain is 428.25mm, the maximum difference is 198.51mm, the climate tendency is 88.12mm/10a, and the change trend of the rainy period - Multi rain period is formed for a long time. The spatial difference is significant, and there is a obvious difference in the meridian zone. The farming area and the cultivation period of the reclamation area are obvious. The change trend of the mean precipitation was similar, the precipitation advantage of the agricultural region decreased with the time. The trend of the increase of Fuyuan County, Fujin part, Rao River and Baoqing county was more obvious. (2) the cultivated land use change analysis in.2000-2015 years increased slightly, but the internal structure was quickly adjusted. The total area increased from 5 million 683 thousand and 500 hm~2 to 5 million 799 thousand and 100 hm~2, the area of dryland continued to decrease and the area of the paddy field increased continuously. The proportion of the two was changed from 3.8:1 to 1.2:1, and the change of the paddy field was more significant than that of the dry land and the total amount of cultivated land. The change of the barycenter of the cultivated land was small, the dry land was large, and the mean value of the reclamation index of the largest.2000-2015 year reclamation area of water Tian Zhong heart was about For the 1.75 times of the agricultural area, the proportion of dry land and paddy field decreased from 6.35 to 2.43, the proportion of Dryland and paddy field in the reclamation area was reduced from 2.32 to 1.85 times of the agricultural area in the reclamation area during 0.50.2000-2015, and the water change area of the Sanjiang Administration Bureau and the Mudanjiang Administration Bureau were obvious. The ground ratio is more aggregated and the degree of human disturbance is lower, but the patch area difference is greater, and the agricultural area is the opposite. (3) the influence of climate change on cultivated land use. The influence of temperature on cultivated land distribution dominance is greater than the effect of precipitation on it. The loss of precipitation can be made up through irrigation, while excessive precipitation is not conducive to farming, climate is not conducive to the climate. The area of cultivated land with poor conditions (low temperature and less rain) is less. The change of precipitation and temperature has little influence on the dominant planting of dry land, and the change of temperature has great influence on the dominant planting of the paddy field. The efficiency of the area variation is higher than that in the reclamation area. The effect of the increase of precipitation on cultivated land and the cultivated land (Dryland and paddy field) has little difference efficiency. The dynamic degree of farmland and paddy field increases with the increase of precipitation (increasing temperature) in tillage period and the dynamic degree of paddy field. The effect of the change of temperature on the cultivated land, the Dryland and the dynamic degree of the Dryland and the paddy field is greater than the effect of the precipitation on its intensity and degree. The changes in the amount of cultivated land, the present situation and change of the structure of the cultivated land, the change of the structure of the internal structure, the change of climate factors (temperature and precipitation) and the influence of the climate on the cultivated land are the adjustment of the cultivated land structure, the crop adaptability planting and the rational and effective layout of the cultivated land.
【学位授予单位】：东北农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.211

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