基于系统动力学的山西省农产品加工产业集群研究

发布时间：2018-06-21 21:34

本文选题：系统动力学 + 农产品加工产业集群　；参考：《江苏农业科学》2017年19期

【摘要】：通过分析山西省农产品加工产业集群现状,结合系统动力学方法,探索产业集群系统要素因果关系,建立系统动力学模型,进行有效性检验,根据灵敏度分析得出,财政支出、原材料成本和固定资产投资变化对农产品加工业集群发展的影响敏感,劳动力成本变化对农产品加工业集群发展的影响敏感度较小。在此基础上,进一步分析仿真模型结果得出,财政支出水平和固定资产投资对山西省农产品加工产业集群的积极影响要大于原材料成本的消极影响,其发展规模到2025年高速情景比基础情景高36%,达到711.89亿元;到2030年高速情景比基础情景高50%,达到8 993.54亿元。结合分析结果从财政支持体系、固定资产投资、原材料保障等3个方面提出加快山西省农产品加工产业集群发展的对策建议。
[Abstract]:By analyzing the present situation of agricultural product processing industry cluster in Shanxi Province, combining the system dynamics method, exploring the causality of system elements of industrial cluster, establishing the system dynamics model, carrying on the validity test, according to the sensitivity analysis, we can draw the conclusion that the financial expenditure, The change of raw material cost and fixed asset investment is sensitive to the development of agri-product processing industry cluster, while the change of labor cost has less sensitivity to the development of agro-product processing industry cluster. On this basis, further analysis of the simulation model results show that the level of fiscal expenditure and fixed assets investment on the positive impact of Shanxi agricultural products processing industry cluster is greater than the negative impact of raw material costs. Its development scale by 2025 is 36 times higher than the basic scenario, reaching 71.189 billion yuan, and by 2030, the high speed scenario is 50% higher than the basic scenario, reaching 899.354 billion yuan. Based on the analysis results, the countermeasures and suggestions for accelerating the development of agricultural product processing industry cluster in Shanxi Province are put forward from three aspects: financial support system, fixed assets investment and raw material guarantee.
【作者单位】：山西农业大学经济管理学院;山西农业大学公共管理学院;石河子大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：山西省高等哲学社会科学研究一般项目(山西省高等学校哲学社会科学研究项目资助)(编号:2015234) 山西省软科学项目(编号:2016042006-3) 山西农业大学引进人才科研启动项目(编号:2014YJ03);山西农业大学经济管理学院科研基金(编号:JGKY2015005)
【分类号】：F326.5

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