地方政府土地出让策略互动行为的检验及其影响分析

发布时间：2018-06-23 02:35

本文选题：地方政府 + 土地出让　；参考：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年07期

【摘要】：本文以山东省设区市地方政府土地出让行为作为研究对象,通过构建空间面板模型,从价格和数量两个维度,全面检验了地方政府商服、住宅、工业用地出让的策略互动行为,并利用空间计量工具,分析了地方政府土地出让策略互动行为的影响。研究发现:(1)山东省内地方政府商服、住宅、工业用地出让价格以及工业用地出让量存在显著的策略互动,地方政府的商服、住宅、工业用地出让价格以及工业用地出让量,不仅会受城市自身情况的约束,还会受邻近地区地方政府土地出让行为的影响,外在表现为你涨我跌、你增我减的反向变动格局;(2)由于未考虑策略互动,传统计量经济学非空间面板模型对地方政府土地出让行为影响因素的估计普遍存在偏误。对于商服用地出让价格,第三产业比重、人口密度的影响分别被低估了33.33%、13.08%;对于住宅用地出让价格,人口城镇化率、人均可支配收入的影响分别被低估了20.00%、9.98%,人口密度的影响被高估了32.34%;对于工业用地出让价格,人均外商直接投资的影响被高估了3.68%;对于工业用地出让量,第二产业比重、地均工业产值的影响分别被高估了13.95%、31.36%;(3)地方政府土地出让行为的影响因素普遍存在明显的空间溢出效应。对于商服用地出让价格,具有空间溢出效应的影响因素为人口密度;对于住宅用地出让价格,具有空间溢出效应的影响因素为人口城镇化率、人口密度、人均可支配收入;对于工业用地出让价格,具有空间溢出效应的影响因素为人均外商直接投资、地均固定资产投资;对于工业用地出让量,具有空间溢出效应的影响因素为第二产业比重、地均固定资产投资。
[Abstract]:This paper takes the land transfer behavior of the local government in the district of Shandong Province as the research object, through constructing the spatial panel model, from the two dimensions of price and quantity, the paper comprehensively examines the strategic interactive behavior of the local government commercial service, housing and industrial land transfer. Using spatial measurement tools, this paper analyzes the influence of the interactive behavior of local government land transfer strategy. The results are as follows: (1) there are significant strategic interactions among local government services, residential buildings, industrial land transfer prices and industrial land sales volume in Shandong Province, local government commercial services, housing, industrial land transfer prices and industrial land transfer volume. It will be bound not only by the city's own situation, but also by the behavior of local governments' land sales in neighboring regions. The external manifestation is that you rise and drop, you increase or decrease, you increase or decrease the reverse pattern of change; (2) because you do not consider strategic interaction, The traditional econometrics non-spatial panel model has a wide range of errors in estimating the factors affecting the land transfer behavior of local governments. The effects of commercial land transfer prices, tertiary industry proportions, and population density were underestimated by 33.33% and 13.08% respectively; for residential land transfer prices, the population urbanization rate, The impact of per capita disposable income was underestimated by 20.00 to 9.98, the impact of population density was overestimated by 32.34; for the price of industrial land transfer, the impact of foreign direct investment per capita was overestimated by 3.68; for industrial land transfer, the proportion of the secondary industry was overvalued. The influence of the industrial output value of local government was overestimated by 13.95% and 31.36% respectively. (3) the spatial spillover effect of local government land transfer behavior was obvious. For the price of commercial land transfer, the influencing factors with spatial spillover effect are population density, for residential land transfer price, the influencing factors with spatial spillover effect are population urbanization rate, population density, per capita disposable income. For the price of industrial land transfer, the influencing factors with spatial spillover effect are foreign direct investment per capita, fixed assets investment per capita, and secondary industry proportion with spatial spillover effect for industrial land transfer volume. Land average fixed assets investment.
【作者单位】：山东师范大学商学院;池州学院管理与法学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金青年项目“农村宅基地退出补偿激励机制研究”(批准号:15CJY047)
【分类号】：F301

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