贵阳市土地利用变化碳排放响应研究

发布时间：2018-06-27 22:28

本文选题：碳排放 + 碳蓄积　；参考：《贵州师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：20世纪70年代以来,由于二氧化碳等温室气体急剧增加所造成全球气候变暖已带来了一系列的社会、经济、生态环境等方面的问题,严重影响了人类社会经济的可持续发展。人类活动中土地利用变化是引起全球气候变暖的主要活动之一,已成为除化石能源燃烧排放以外的第二大温室气体排放源,约占人为总排放的1/3。因此,研究不同土地利用类型的碳蓄积/碳排放,分析碳排放和土地利用变化之间的定量关系,不仅能为优化土地利用结构减少碳排放提供理论依据,还对区域实现低碳经济具有重要意义.从贵阳市经济发展迅速最为明显的十年出发,分析其土地利用变化情况,综合性地考虑陆地生态系统碳收支和人为源碳排放,测算土地利用变化所造成的碳蓄积与碳排放。进一步的,运用马尔科夫模型预测2020年碳排放情况,对土地利用结构变化和碳排放进行关联性分析,并从低碳经济出发提出土地利用结构优化的碳增汇和碳减排对策。主要研究结果如下:(1)在2000-2010年这十年间,耕地、林地和建设用地的变化最为明显,耕地减少了448.7790km2,而林地和建设用地则分别增加了210.0088 km2、200.7948 km2,而草地、水域和未利用地则表现为未发生变化或变化幅度较小。从土地利用动态度来看,这十年间贵阳市总体的土地利用变化速度还是比较缓慢的。而土地利用结构上的变化主要表现为:耕地主要转化为林地和建设用地,分别为229.32km2、178.71km2;建设用地为主要的转入用地类型,共转入200.5902 km2,而草地、水域和未利用地变化幅度较小。(2)通过对2000年、2010年土地利用现状图与土壤类型图和植被类型图分别叠加综合分析后,可以看出贵阳市在这十年期间,陆地生态系统整体上来说表现为碳汇,碳汇增加了2576.3203万t,其中保持用地类型土壤碳蓄积为1802.5532万t,转变用地类型土壤碳蓄积为106.6694万t,保持用地类型植被碳蓄积为616.0799万t,转变用地类型植被碳蓄积为51.0177万t。而从能源部门、工业过程和产品使用、农林牧部门和废弃物处理部门测算人为源碳排放,结果表明,2000年贵阳市土地利用载体上的人为源碳排放达到了2107.9400万t,到2010年时将近翻了一倍,达到3992.0472万t,主要是由于贵阳这十年处于快速发展阶段,城市化进程较快,能源消费结构不合理且能源利用率低。其中,2010年贵阳市能源部门排放二氧化碳3464.79万t,工业过程和产品使用排放二氧化碳417.34万t,农林牧部门排放二氧化碳42.45万t,废弃物处理部门排放二氧化碳67.46万t。(3)采用马尔科夫模型预测2020年土地利用及其碳排放。到2020年,建设用地面积增长较为明显,比2010年翻了两倍多,其他土地利用类型相比于2010年来说有不同程度的下降。预测到2020年,土壤碳蓄积将达到1120.1620万t,植被碳蓄积将达到304.8439万t,碳排放将达到6845.8598万t,土地利用净碳排放为5418.7247万t。与马尔科夫模型预测数据相比,土地利用总体规划数据相对是滞后的,建设用地增长最为明显,对碳排放贡献最大,而林地、草地、耕地的碳汇水平也不容忽视。(4)针对低碳经济导向下土地利用结构优化,结合研究区发展现状及土地利用相关政策、法规,主要从土地利用结构碳汇优化以及水土保持和生态保护、林地管理、农地管理、草地管理等方面提出土地利用碳增汇政策,从土地利用结构碳减排优化以及农业碳减排、建设用地碳减排等方面提出碳减排政策。
[Abstract]:Since the 1970s, global warming caused by the rapid increase of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, has brought a series of social, economic, ecological and environmental problems, which seriously affected the sustainable development of human society and economy. The change of land use in human activities is one of the main activities of global warming. It has become the second largest greenhouse gas emission source except fossil energy combustion, accounting for about 1/3. of human total emissions. Therefore, the study of carbon storage / carbon emissions from different land use types and the quantitative relationship between carbon emission and land use change can not only provide a theoretical basis for optimizing land use structure to reduce carbon emissions, but also provide a theoretical basis for the reduction of carbon emissions. It is of great significance to realize the low carbon economy in the region. From the ten years of rapid economic development in Guiyang, the change of land use, carbon budget of land ecosystem and anthropogenic carbon emissions are synthetically considered, and the carbon accumulation and carbon emission caused by land use change are calculated. Further, the Markoff model is used. In order to predict the carbon emissions in 2020, the relationship between land use structure change and carbon emissions is analyzed, and the Countermeasures of carbon increase and carbon emission reduction are put forward from the low carbon economy. The main results are as follows: (1) in the ten years of 2000-2010 years, the change of cultivated land, forest land and construction land is the most obvious, and the cultivated land has decreased by 448. .7790km2, while woodland and construction land increased by 210.0088 km2200.7948 km2 respectively, while grassland, water and unused land showed no change or small change. From the land use dynamics, the overall land use change rate of Guiyang was relatively slow during the ten years. The main manifestations are: the main transformation of cultivated land to woodland and construction land, respectively, 229.32km2178.71km2, construction land as the main transfer to land type, a total of 200.5902 km2, and grassland, water and unused land change less. (2) through the 2000, 2010 land use status map and soil type map and vegetation type map superposition After the comprehensive analysis, it can be seen that during the ten years in Guiyang, the terrestrial ecosystem on the whole showed carbon sequestration, and the carbon sink increased by 25 million 763 thousand and 203 T, of which the soil carbon storage of the land type was 18 million 25 thousand and 532 T, the soil carbon accumulation of the land type was 1 million 66 thousand and 694 T, the land type vegetation carbon storage was 6 million 160 thousand and 799 T, and the change was used. The land type vegetation carbon storage was 510 thousand and 177 T. and the anthropogenic carbon emissions were measured from the energy sector, industrial process and product use, the agriculture, forestry and animal husbandry department and the waste disposal department. The results showed that the anthropogenic carbon emissions from the Guiyang land use carrier reached 21 million 79 thousand and 400 t in 2000, and nearly doubled to 39 million 920 thousand and 472 t by 2010. If Guiyang is in the rapid development stage in the ten years, the process of urbanization is faster, the energy consumption structure is unreasonable and the utilization rate of energy is low. In 2010, the energy department of Guiyang City discharged 34 million 647 thousand and 900 t of carbon dioxide, 4 million 173 thousand and 400 t of carbon dioxide emissions from industrial processes and products, 424 thousand and 500 t of carbon dioxide from agriculture, forestry and animal husbandry department, and waste place 674 thousand and 600 T. (3) T. (3) was used to predict land use and carbon emissions in 2020. By 2020, the area of construction land growth was more obvious, more than two times more than in 2010, and the other land use types had a different degree of decline compared to 2010. The soil carbon storage will reach 1120.162 in 2020. 0 million T, vegetation carbon accumulation will reach 3 million 48 thousand and 439 T, carbon emissions will reach 68 million 458 thousand and 598 T, land use net carbon emissions to 54 million 187 thousand and 247 T. compared with the Markoff model forecast data, the land use overall planning data is relatively lagging, the construction land growth is most obvious, the largest contribution to carbon emissions, and woodland, grassland, cultivated land carbon sink level (4) in view of the optimization of land use structure under the guidance of low carbon economy, combined with the development status of the research area and the relevant policies of land use, laws and regulations, mainly from the land use structure carbon sequestration optimization, soil and water conservation and ecological protection, woodland management, farmland management, grassland management and other aspects of land use carbon sequestration policy, from land benefit. Carbon emission reduction policy is proposed in terms of structural carbon reduction optimization, agricultural carbon emission reduction, and carbon emission reduction in construction land.
【学位授予单位】：贵州师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F301.2

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