基于CR-BDI模型的农户作物种植行为模拟——以陕西省米脂县姜兴庄为例

发布时间：2018-07-01 14:45

  本文选题：农户行为 + 土地利用　； 参考：《地理科学进展》2016年10期

【摘要】：运用模拟平台模拟农户土地利用行为,对揭示农户土地利用变化机制和调整土地利用决策具有重要意义。本文选择生态脆弱区一乡一业、一村一品典型村陕西省米脂县姜兴庄为例,以信念—愿望—意图模型(BDI)为基础,构建有限理性能力与资源(CR-BDI)模型。基于NetLogo平台对CR-BDI模型和传统BDI模型的模拟情况进行对比分析,结果表明:1CR-BDI模型更适于微观尺度农户土地利用决策研究。2014年该模型面积失误率为6.78%,比传统BDI模型低8.48%,空间准确率比传统BDI模型高10.10%,2015年CR-BDI模型和传统BDI模型的整体空间正确率分别为78.8%和69.2%;2CR指数有利于体现农户的有限理性,与实际种植决策较为符合;3利用NetLogo平台有利于直观再现农户土地利用行为,揭示土地利用变化的微观机理,可作为研究土地利用变化互动机理的良好平台。
[Abstract]:It is of great significance to simulate the land use behavior of farmers by using the simulation platform to reveal the mechanism of land use change of farmers and to adjust the decision-making of land use. In this paper, based on the model of belief, wish and intention (BDI), a limited rational ability and resources (CR-BDI) model is constructed by selecting one village, one village and one typical village in Mizhi County, Shaanxi Province, as an example, based on the model of belief, wish and intention (BDI). Based on NetLogo platform, the simulation of CR-BDI model and traditional BDI model is compared and analyzed. In 2014, the error rate of this model is 6.78, which is 8.48 lower than that of traditional BDI model, and the spatial accuracy is 10.10 higher than that of traditional BDI model. The overall error rate of CR-BDI model and traditional BDI model in 2015 is higher than that of traditional BDI model. The spatial accuracy rates were 78.8% and 69.2%, respectively. In accordance with the actual planting decision, the use of NetLogo platform is beneficial to the direct reproduction of farmers' land use behavior and reveals the microcosmic mechanism of land use change. It can be used as a good platform for studying the interactive mechanism of land use change.
【作者单位】： 西北大学城市与环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41271103)~~
【分类号】：F326.1
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本文编号：2088119