农业劳动力老龄化、非农劳动力兼业化对农业生产环节外包的影响

发布时间：2018-07-10 08:12

本文选题：农业劳动力 + 老龄化　；参考：《农业经济问题》2017年10期

【摘要】：农业劳动力老龄化可能对农业生产造成不利冲击,农业生产环节外包被认为是实现资本对劳动力替代的现实路径。关于老龄化是否会增加外包需求,已有研究尚未达成共识,并且存在一个重要的不足之处:没有考虑到兼业化的非农劳动力协助农业生产的作用,非农劳动力协助农业生产往往与老龄化存在正相关关系,这导致老龄化对于外包影响的估计结果存在显著偏误。本文引入非农劳动力是否住家这一重要变量,剥离出非农劳动力协助农业生产的作用,仅评估老龄化对于外包的边际影响。研究结果表明,老龄化对外包的影响在不同的环节存在差异,在低劳动强度环节,老龄化非但不会增加外包,反而显著降低了外包概率;在高劳动强度环节恰好相反,老龄化显著增加了外包概率。此外,在农业劳动力年龄相同的条件下,相比于非农劳动力住家的家庭,非农劳动力不住家的家庭外包概率更高。
[Abstract]:The aging of agricultural labor may have a negative impact on agricultural production, and the outsourcing of agricultural production links is regarded as a realistic way to realize the substitution of capital to the labor force. There has been no consensus on whether aging will increase the demand for outsourcing, and there is an important shortcoming: non farming labor is not taken into consideration. The role of force assists in agricultural production, and the non-agricultural labor force assists the agricultural production with a positive correlation with aging, which leads to a significant error in the estimation of the impact of aging on outsourcing. This paper introduces the important variable of non-agricultural labor force to live home, peeling off the role of non-agricultural labor to assist agricultural production and assessing only the aging of aging. The results show that the impact of aging on outsourcing is different in different links. In low labor intensity, aging does not increase outsourcing, but significantly reduces outsourcing probability; in high labor intensity, it is the opposite, aging significantly increases the outsourcing probability. In addition, in agricultural labor. Under the same age of force, the family outsource of non farm labor is more likely to be outsourced than households with non farm labor.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“农地流转合约选择的机制分析及其对农业生产效率的影响研究”(编号:71673290) 国家自然科学基金面上项目“土地流转背景下农地经营投资行为与耕地质量提升研究”(编号:71573262) 江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD) “中国农业科学院科技创新工程(编号:ASTIP-IAED-2017-03)”
【分类号】：F323.6

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