汉中市建设用地扩张与经济增长脱钩分析

发布时间：2018-07-22 19:33

【摘要】：土地是经济社会不可或缺的重要资源和活动场所。改革开放以来,我国经济快速增长,但由于我国资源掠夺式粗放发展模式,使得土地资源与用地需求之间的矛盾逐渐激化,未来如何科学合理、节约和集约用地,走可持续发展的道路成为各界关注的焦点。因此,研究建设用地扩张与经济增长的互动关系显得尤为重要。本文以汉中市为研究对象,懫用理论与实证相结合、定性定量相结合和历史分析与未来预测相结合的方法,基于1997-2014年的相关数据,研究建设用地扩张与经济增长之间的脱钩关系。首先,简要回顾了汉中市建设用地扩张与经济增长情况;然后,运用Tapio脱钩弹性系数模型分析了两者之间的脱钩状态及变化趋势;其次,采用脱钩努力模型评价政府脱钩努力程度,分析了上述脱钩状态产生的原因;最后,采用情景分析法预测不同情景模式下汉中市建设用地扩张与经济增长脱钩状态,并提出建设用地与经济增长优化建议。研究结果表明:(1)汉中市建设用地扩张与经济增长虽然没有实现绝对脱钩,但实现了相对的脱钩,说明汉中市经济增长仍需依靠建设用地的不断投入来获得,但依赖度不高。(2)从脱钩努力评价结果来看,研究期间汉中市政府的脱钩努力整体呈现出相对脱钩努力状态。从各效应的脱钩努力程度测算结果来看,建设用地利用强度效应、人口规模效应和产业结构效应中建设用地利用强度效应的脱钩努力作用最大,但作用效果有限,产业结构效应具有较大的建设用地脱钩努力潜力。(3)通过分析汉中市建设用地扩张与经济增长相对脱钩状态产生的原因,汉中市若要实现经济可持增长可进一步通过加强技术创新、优化产业结构和加强用地管理来实现。(4)根据2013-2020年汉中市建设用地与经济增长脱钩预测结果,汉中市还努力向发达地区看齐,进一步从转变用地观念、加大产业结构调整、创新经济增长方式和强化用地管理这四个方面出发,不断的优化建设用地扩张与经济增长间的关系。
[Abstract]:Land is an indispensable and important resource and activity place of economy and society. Since the reform and opening up, the economy of our country has grown rapidly, but the contradiction between land resources and land demand has been intensified gradually because of the extensive development mode of resources predatory in our country. How to make scientific, reasonable, economical and intensive land use in the future? To take the road of sustainable development has become the focus of attention. Therefore, it is particularly important to study the interactive relationship between construction land expansion and economic growth. This paper takes Hanzhong City as the research object, combining theory with demonstration, qualitative and quantitative analysis, and historical analysis and future prediction, based on the relevant data from 1997 to 2014. This paper studies the decoupling relationship between construction land expansion and economic growth. Firstly, the paper briefly reviews the situation of construction land expansion and economic growth in Hanzhong City, and then analyzes the decoupling state and changing trend by using the Tapio decoupling elastic coefficient model. The paper uses the decoupling effort model to evaluate the degree of government decoupling, and analyzes the reasons of the decoupling. Finally, the paper uses scenario analysis to predict the decoupling state of construction land expansion and economic growth in Hanzhong city under different scenarios. And put forward construction land and economic growth optimization suggestions. The results show that: (1) although the expansion of construction land and economic growth in Hanzhong City has not achieved absolute decoupling, it has achieved relative decoupling, indicating that the economic growth of Hanzhong City still depends on the continuous input of construction land. But the degree of dependence is not high. (2) judging from the evaluation results of decoupling efforts, Hanzhong municipal government's decoupling efforts showed a relative state of relative decoupling efforts. According to the calculation results of the degree of decoupling of each effect, the effect of construction land use intensity, population scale and industrial structure is the biggest, but the effect is limited. Industrial structure effect has great potential for decoupling of construction land. (3) by analyzing the reasons for the relative decoupling of construction land expansion and economic growth in Hanzhong City, If Hanzhong city wants to achieve sustainable economic growth, it can be further achieved by strengthening technological innovation, optimizing industrial structure and strengthening land use management. (4) according to the forecast results of decoupling between construction land and economic growth in Hanzhong City from 2013 to 2020, Hanzhong has also striven to be in line with the developed regions, further changing the concept of land use, increasing the adjustment of industrial structure, innovating the mode of economic growth, and strengthening land use management. Continuous optimization of the relationship between construction land expansion and economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F301.2

【参考文献】