基于生态足迹的武汉市土地低碳利用分析与改进研究

发布时间：2018-07-27 15:26

【摘要】：工业文明的出现,使社会生产力有了飞速的发展,人类利用自然的能力也进一步得到提高。但自上世纪70年代以来,人类就开始超负荷的使用地球,使得生物资源和能源过度消耗,从而对生态环境产生不利影响,全球气候变暖担忧加剧。20世纪80年代,气候变暖开始受到人们的普遍关注,已有的研究表明,土地利用变化已成为第二大温室气体排放源。土地不仅为人类的社会活动提供了承载空间,也为区域的发展提供了自然物质基础。当今,转变土地利用方式,促进土地低碳集约利用,已成为实现区域土地可持续利用的核心。武汉市作为中部唯一的副省级城市,既是“两型社会”综合配套改革试验区,也是“低碳城市”建设试点城市,理应将资源节约、环境友好、低碳生活作为城市发展目标。为此本文将土地利用碳排放的核算与生态足迹模型相结合,对武汉市土地利用状况进行动态分析,并针对其存在的问题提出相关改进措施。通过研究得出以下结论:(1)1996-2012年武汉市土地利用碳排放量总体呈上升趋势,尤其在2002-2006年,上升速度较快;而土地利用碳吸收量增速较为平稳,且与碳排放量相比,其作用较小,从而导致土地利用净碳排放量的增加。而武汉市地均碳排放强度明显大于地均碳吸收强度,由此也说明了武汉市减碳压力较大。(2)将土地利用碳排放的核算与生态足迹模型相结合,基于城市土地碳排放测算和整体的碳吸纳能力,考察碳足迹;通过改进的生态足迹模型,测算包括碳足迹在内的生态足迹以及生态承载力,测算结果表明武汉市人均生态足迹总体呈上升趋势,而人均生态承载力呈现出下降趋势;降低碳足迹有赖于土地利用碳排放的控制和碳汇用地的保护。(3)选取灰色系统预测模型对武汉市2013-2020年的人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力进行预测,结果表明,2013-2020年武汉市人均生态足迹逐年增加,人均生态承载力逐年减少,从而导致人均生态赤字的不断加大。综上,武汉市区域可持续发展状况不容乐观,需要通过调整土地利用结构,控制建设用地扩张;转变经济发展方式,实施低碳经济发展战略;推进生态文明建设,提高土地利用的生态效益;适度转移生态压力,释放区域负荷等,以实现区域的可持续发展。
[Abstract]:With the emergence of industrial civilization, the social productive forces have developed rapidly, and the ability of human beings to utilize nature has been further improved. But since the 1970s, humans have been overloading the Earth, causing excessive consumption of biological and energy resources, which has had a negative impact on the ecological environment, and global warming concerns intensified in the 1980s. Global warming is getting more and more attention, and some studies have shown that land use change has become the second largest source of greenhouse gas emissions. Land not only provides the carrying space for the social activities of human beings, but also provides the natural material basis for the development of the region. Nowadays, the transformation of land use mode and the promotion of low carbon intensive land use have become the core of regional sustainable land use. As the only sub-provincial city in central China, Wuhan is not only the experimental area of comprehensive reform of "two type society", but also the pilot city of "low carbon city". It should take resource saving, environment friendly and low carbon life as the goal of urban development. In this paper, the land use carbon emission accounting and ecological footprint model are combined to analyze the land use situation in Wuhan City, and the relevant improvement measures are put forward in view of the existing problems. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the carbon emissions from land use in Wuhan showed an increasing trend from 1996 to 2012, especially in 2002-2006, and the increase rate of carbon uptake of land use was relatively stable, and its effect was less than that of carbon emissions. This leads to an increase in net carbon emissions from land use. However, the intensity of average carbon emission in Wuhan is obviously higher than that in average carbon absorption, which also shows that the carbon reduction pressure in Wuhan is great. (2) the calculation of carbon emissions from land use is combined with the ecological footprint model. Based on the measurement of urban land carbon emissions and the overall carbon absorption capacity, the carbon footprint is investigated, and the ecological footprint including carbon footprint and ecological carrying capacity is measured through the improved ecological footprint model. The results show that the per capita ecological footprint of Wuhan is on the whole rising and the per capita ecological carrying capacity is decreasing. The reduction of carbon footprint depends on the control of land use carbon emissions and the protection of carbon sequestration land. (3) the grey system prediction model is selected to predict the ecological footprint per capita and ecological carrying capacity per capita in Wuhan from 2013 to 2020. The results show that the per capita ecological footprint of Wuhan increases year by year, and the per capita ecological carrying capacity decreases year by year from 2013 to 2020, which leads to the increasing per capita ecological deficit. In summary, the sustainable development of Wuhan region is not optimistic. It is necessary to adjust the structure of land use, control the expansion of construction land, change the mode of economic development, implement the strategy of low-carbon economic development, and promote the construction of ecological civilization. In order to realize the sustainable development of the region, the ecological benefit of land use should be improved, the ecological pressure should be transferred moderately and the regional load should be released.
【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F301.2

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