基于CA-MARKOV模型的江苏沿海土地利用变化情景分析

发布时间：2018-07-28 18:29

【摘要】：以江苏沿海为例,基于2000年、2005年、2010年TM影像解译数据,分析了江苏沿海土地利用类型的动态变化,结合转移矩阵和CA-Markov模型,设定了自然发展趋势、生态环境保护管理和城市规划与区域发展3种不同的情景进行模拟预测。结果表明:(1)2000—2010年耕地、草地、林地面积有所减少,其他面积有所增加,2005—2010年城乡居民用地增加1 341.45km~2,耕地减少1 147.65km~2,城镇化发展速度较快,建设用地占用大量生态用地。(2)自然发展趋势情景与生态保护情景相比,林地、草地的面积变化不大,仅城乡居民用地面积多出583.68km~2,说明该情景既保护生态环境也保证城乡发展;生态保护情景下城乡居民用地面积10年间仅增长684.78km~2,说明该情景下生态环境虽然得到保护,但也限制了该区域城镇化发展;城市规划与区域发展情景下城乡居民用地比2010年增加3 963.35km~2,而耕地、林地和草地面积大幅度减少,说明过分强调城市的发展,不仅会导致耕地面积大幅减小,威胁粮食安全,也会对当地的生态系统带来巨大的危害。通过对不同情景的模拟,可为区域土地规划、生态保护以及可持续发展提供决策依据。
[Abstract]:Taking Jiangsu coastal area as an example, based on the TM image interpretation data of 2000, 2005 and 2010, the dynamic changes of land use types in Jiangsu coastal area were analyzed, and the natural development trend was set up by combining the transfer matrix and CA-Markov model. Three different scenarios of ecological environmental protection management, urban planning and regional development were simulated and forecasted. The results are as follows: (1) the area of cultivated land, grassland and woodland decreased from 2000 to 2010, and the other areas increased. From 2005 to 2010, the land use of urban and rural residents increased by 1 341.45 km2, the cultivated land decreased by 1 147.65 km2, and the rate of urbanization developed rapidly. Construction land occupies a large amount of ecological land. (2) compared with the ecological protection scenario, the area of woodland and grassland is not changed much, only the area of urban and rural residents is 583.68 km2, which shows that the situation not only protects the ecological environment but also guarantees the development of urban and rural areas. The land area of urban and rural residents only increased by 684.78 km2 in 10 years under the ecological protection scenario, which indicated that although the ecological environment was protected, it also restricted the development of urbanization in the region. Under urban planning and regional development scenarios, urban and rural residents' land use increased by 3 963.35 km2 compared with 2010, while the area of cultivated land, woodland and grassland decreased significantly, indicating that over-emphasis on urban development will not only lead to a significant decrease in cultivated land area and threaten food security. It can also do great harm to the local ecosystem. Through the simulation of different scenarios, it can provide decision basis for regional land planning, ecological protection and sustainable development.
【作者单位】：南京师范大学地理科学学院;江苏省环境演变与生态建设重点实验室;江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(31470519) 江苏省自然科学基金(BK20131399) 江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目
【分类号】：F301.2

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