农户禀赋、风险偏好对农户西瓜生产决策行为影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-07-29 13:30

【摘要】：基于西瓜农户实地调研数据,利用带罚函数的二项Logistic模型,对瓜农扩大西瓜种植决策的影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明:农户西瓜种植决策行为很大程度上取决于农户的风险态度,农户风险偏好水平越高,扩大种植的可能性越高;农户禀赋因素中,户主受教育年限、家庭人口规模、西瓜收入占家庭总收入的比重、参加培训、市场能力对农户扩大西瓜种植决策有显著正向影响。户主年龄、上期播种面积对农户扩大西瓜种植决策有显著负向影响。其中户主年龄、收入占比、市场能力对农户种植决策的边际影响均在20%以上;市场因素对农户扩大西瓜种植具有正向激励作用。基于此,提出设立政策性的特色农业保险产品分散西瓜生产风险,研发和推广西瓜简约化栽培技术、机械技术等来缓解劳动力老龄化带来的负面影响等政策建议。
[Abstract]:Based on the field investigation data of watermelon farmers and using the binomial Logistic model with penalty function, this paper empirically analyzed the influencing factors on the decision of expanding watermelon planting by melon farmers. The results show that the decision-making behavior of farmers' watermelon planting depends largely on the farmers' risk attitude, the higher the risk preference level, the higher the possibility of expanding planting, among the factors of farmers' endowment, the number of years of education for the head of household, the size of the household population. The proportion of watermelon income to total household income, participation in training, and market ability have a significant positive impact on farmers' decision to expand watermelon planting. The age of the head of household and the planting area in the previous period had a significant negative effect on the farmers' decision to expand the planting of watermelon. Among them, the age of head of household, the proportion of income, the marginal influence of market ability on farmers' planting decision are all above 20%, and market factors have positive incentive effect on farmers' expanding watermelon planting. Based on this, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions such as establishing policy-oriented agricultural insurance products to disperse watermelon production risks, developing and popularizing watermelon cultivation techniques, mechanical techniques, and so on, to alleviate the negative effects brought by the aging of labor force, and so on.
【作者单位】：中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71273263) 国家西甜瓜产业技术体系建设专项资助项目(CARS-26-23) 中国农业科学院科技创新工程资助项目(ASTIP-IAED-2015-05)
【分类号】：F326.13

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