延安市宝塔区土地利用时空格局变化及模拟研究

发布时间：2018-07-29 16:06

【摘要】：作为当前全球环境变化的热点问题,土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)在研究方向、研究内容和深度上不断的扩展和加深。随着研究的深入和技术手段的进步,近年来LUCC的研究更加注重土地利用时空格局的变化,并结合过去、现在、未来土地利用空间格局变化的特征、规律和趋势,探究其变化的驱动因素和机制,以此为土地管理部门的行为决策提供科学可靠的依据,从而促使土地资源的可持续利用。本文以延安市宝塔区为研究区域,借助RS和GIS等技术手段,以研究区2010年、2015年两期土地利用现状数据库为基础,结合土地资源的特点,将土地利用类型分为耕地、园地、林地、草地、城乡建设用地和水域六类。以此为基础数据,从数量结构变化、土地利用转移矩阵和土地利用空间格局三个方面,对过去五年间,各土地利用类型的变化规律进行了全面分析。然后根据二元Logistic回归模型,选取50m*50m、100m*100m、150m*150m、200m*200m四种模拟尺度,分析了影响各土地利用类型的驱动力及驱动力机制。最后运用CLUE-S模型对未来研究区土地利用变化空间格局模拟研究,通过对比分析生成的结果与宝塔区2020年土地利用总体规划,为政府部门和决策者合理利用土地资源提供一定的参考依据,同时也对类似区域的土地利用提供相关的借鉴。本文的研究结果表明:(1)2010年-2015年5年间宝塔区土地利用变化在数量结构上的主要特征为:林地、园地、草地面积减少,减少面积分别为:1078.74ha、1006.23ha、296.74ha;城乡建设用地和耕地面积增加,增加面积分别为2207.37ha、224.03ha,水域面积基本保持不变。在此基础上,分析了研究区耕地质量变化情况,得出5年期间宝塔区耕地质量有所下降;(2)首先,以土地利用转移矩阵为基础,从新增和减少两个角度,分别对研究初期土地利用的流失方向和末期的新增用地来源进行系统转换优势分析,得到研究区各土地利用类型间的转换规则;然后,从各土地利用类型的转出——不变——转入分析空间位置变化情况;最后,基于分形理论对2010年和2015年两期6种土地利用类型的分维值和稳定性指数进行计算,通过计算结果分析得出研究期内宝塔区城乡建设用地的空间分布趋于复杂,除水域外,其他土地利用类型相对趋于规整化。(3)根据二元Logistic回归模型结果的回归系数来探究土地利用变化的驱动力,并在50m*50m、100m*100m、150m*150m、200m*200m不同空间尺度下,经过对比ROC值,得到宝塔区土地利用空间格局模拟的最佳模拟尺度是100m*100m,并以此为基础对影响各土地利用类型的驱动力进行分析,揭示了其驱动力机制。(4)引入CLUE-S模型,预测2020年宝塔区土地利用空间格局,并对比分析2020年宝塔区土地利用总体规划。结果表明:受宝塔区新区规划、各驱动力因子和各地类的土地需求的共同作用,未来五年城乡建设用地增加较为显著,主要表现为林地、草地向城乡建设用地的转换为主,耕地持续保持小幅度增加。
[Abstract]:As a hot issue in the current global environment change, land use / Cover Change (LUCC) has been expanded and deepened in research direction, research content and depth. With the deepening of research and progress of technical means, LUCC research has paid more attention to the change of land use spatio-temporal grid in recent years, and combined with the past, now, and future land use The characteristics, laws and trends of the spatial pattern change, explore the driving factors and mechanisms of the change, so as to provide scientific and reliable basis for the behavior decision of the land management department and promote the sustainable utilization of the land resources. This paper takes the pagoda District of Yanan as the research area, and helps RS and GIS and other technical means to study the area in 2010, 2015 Based on the database of the status quo of land use, combining the characteristics of land resources, the land use types are divided into six categories: cultivated land, garden land, woodland, grassland, urban and rural construction land and water area. Based on this data, the land use transfer matrix and the spatial pattern of land use are the three aspects of the land use in the past five years. Based on the two Logistic regression model, four simulation scales of 50m*50m, 100m*100m, 150m*150m and 200m*200m were selected to analyze the driving force and driving force mechanism of the land use types. Finally, the spatial pattern of land use change in the non study area was simulated by the CLUE-S model. The results of comparison and analysis and the overall planning of land use in pagoda area in 2020 provide some reference for the rational use of land resources by government departments and decision-makers, and also provide reference for land use in similar areas. The results of this study show that: (1) the land use changes in the pagoda area in the 5 years of -2015 in 2010 The main characteristics of the quantitative structure are that the area of woodland, garden and grassland is reduced, and the area is reduced respectively: 1078.74ha, 1006.23ha, 296.74ha; the area of urban and rural construction land and cultivated land is increased, the area of the increase is 2207.37ha, 224.03ha, and the area of water area is basically unchanged. On this basis, the change of the quality of cultivated land in the study area is analyzed, and 5 The quality of cultivated land in pagoda area has declined during the year. (2) first, based on the land use transfer matrix, from the new and reduced two angles, the system conversion advantages of the loss direction of land use and the new land source at the end of the study were analyzed, and the transformation rules between the land use types of the research area were obtained. In the end, the fractal dimension and stability index of 6 types of land use types in 2010 and 2015 are calculated based on fractal theory, and the spatial distribution of the urban and rural construction land in the pagoda region is more complex in the study period. Outside the water, other types of land use tend to be regularized. (3) according to the regression coefficient of the results of the two Logistic regression model, the driving force of land use change is explored. Under the different spatial scales of 50m*50m, 100m*100m, 150m*150m and 200m*200m, the optimum simulation ruler of the spatial pattern simulation of the pagoda region is obtained by comparing the ROC values. The degree is 100m*100m, and on the basis of this, the driving force affecting land use types is analyzed and its driving force mechanism is revealed. (4) introducing CLUE-S model to predict the spatial pattern of land use in pagoda area in 2020, and comparing and analyzing the overall planning of land use in pagoda District in 2020. The results show that the driving force factors of the pagoda district are planned. In the next five years, the increase in urban and rural construction land is more significant, mainly in woodland, the conversion of grassland to urban and rural construction land, and a small increase in cultivated land.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F301.2

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