中央“不得调地”政策:农民的态度与村庄的土地调整决策——基于对黑龙江、安徽、山东、四川、陕西5省农户的调查

发布时间：2018-08-03 18:06

【摘要】：本文基于2016年对黑龙江、安徽、山东、四川、陕西5省农户的调查数据,就农民对"不得调地"政策的态度和村庄的土地调整决策以及它们的影响因素进行了实证分析。研究结果显示:反对承包期内"不得调地"政策的农户占16.4%,反对"不得调地"政策长久不变的农户占39.3%,意味着二轮承包到期后农民的土地调整意愿极为强烈;2011~2016年,约16%的农户经历过土地调整,其土地调整次数平均为1.36次,明显低于已有相关文献提及的2010年前的水平;受"不得调地"政策负面影响的家庭人口越多,"不得调地"政策的受支持程度越低,说明家庭人口变动是影响农民对"不得调地"政策态度的主要因素;农民对承包期内"不得调地"政策的态度对村庄的土地调整决策具有显著影响,持反对态度的农民越多,村庄土地调整的概率和频率越高,反之,村庄土地调整的概率和频率越低,意味着村庄内部土地调整的呼声是村庄土地调整决策的重要考量因素。考虑到受"不得调地"政策影响的农村人口有相当大的比例,可以预见,二轮承包到期后要求进行土地调整的压力会很大,在农村土地集体所有制框架内,实现长久"不得调地"的政策目标有一定难度。
[Abstract]:Based on the survey data of rural households in Heilongjiang, Anhui, Shandong, Sichuan and Shaanxi provinces in 2016, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the farmers' attitude to the policy of "not to adjust land", the decision of land adjustment in villages and their influencing factors. The results show that the proportion of farmers who oppose the policy of "no adjustment of land" in the contract period is 16.4, and that of farmers who oppose the policy of "not to adjust land" for a long time is 39.3%, which means that the willingness of farmers to adjust their land after the expiration of the second round of contracts is extremely strong during the period from 2011 to 2016. About 16% of the farmers had experienced land adjustment, and the average number of land adjustment was 1.36, which was obviously lower than the level before 2010 mentioned in relevant literatures. The more the family population is negatively affected by the policy, the lower the support level of the policy is, which indicates that the change of family population is the main factor that affects the attitude of farmers to the policy of "no land transfer"; The farmers' attitude to the policy of "no land adjustment" during the contract period has a significant impact on the decision-making of land adjustment in villages. The more farmers are against it, the higher the probability and frequency of land adjustment in villages are. The lower the probability and frequency of the land adjustment in the village, the more the voice of the land adjustment within the village is an important factor in the decision-making of the land adjustment in the village. Considering that a significant proportion of the rural population is affected by the "no-land transfer" policy, it is foreseeable that there will be considerable pressure for land adjustment after the expiry of the second tranche of contracts, within the framework of collective ownership of rural land, It is difficult to achieve long-term policy goals.
【作者单位】：中国农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：农业部课题“农村人口变动对稳定土地承包关系的影响研究”(编号:04162130112243015)的部分研究成果
【分类号】：F321.1

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