基于碳减排目标的江苏省土地利用结构优化研究
发布时间：2018-08-06 12:42
【摘要】：近年来随着全球CO2等温室气体排放量及浓度的增加,碳减排问题日益受到全社会的关注并成为学术界研究的热点问题。土地作为生态环境的自然载体和人类社会经济活动的空间载体,土地利用中不可避免地产生大量的碳排放。结合土地利用碳排放对用地结构进行优化,既可以较好的实现碳减排,又有助于提升土地利用的整体效益。据此,本文从土地利用系统外部和内在动力两个方面对基于碳减排目标的土地利用进行理论分析,在此基础上构建了基于碳减排目标的土地利用结构优化模型,并基于该模型对《江苏省土地利用总体规划(2006-2020年)》(以下简称《规划》)给定的土地利用结构调整指标进行了优化,分析了优化结果的碳减排潜力。通过以上研究得出如下结论:(1)碳减排与土地利用系统运作之间相辅相成。有意识地调整土地利用结构,不仅能够在保护土地资源的同时实现经济的增长,而且能够在发展经济的同时实现碳减排的目标。(2)2005-2012年间江苏省土地利用碳收支总体表现为碳排放,且呈现增长态势。影响江苏省土地利用净碳排放量变化的各因素效应排序为:经济发展单位土地净碳排放强度土地利用结构人口规模单位GDP用地强度。尽管经济发展和土地利用结构效应对土地利用净碳排放量增长均有较为明显的拉动作用。但进一步研究表明,这8年间江苏省土地利用净碳排放与经济增长之间的脱钩关系表现为弱脱钩,且2009-2012年是江苏省土地利用结构变化净碳排放的高效应期。由此暗含,现阶段通过优化土地利用结构来减少土地利用净碳排放存在巨大的潜力。(3)根据优化模型所得到的江苏省土地利用结构优化方案与《规划》相比具有一定的优势。优化方案不仅能够在保证经济稳定增长的情况下,达到碳减排的目标,同时也兼顾了土地利用的生态效益。基本能够满足江苏省2020年经济发展、粮食安全以及生态保护的要求。基于以上研究结论,论文对江苏省土地利用提出相关政策建议:从土地利用结构的安排考虑,要严格控制建设用地扩张,减少高能耗产业用地的配置比例,同时加强生态用地保护,增强土地碳汇能力;从土地利用行政和市场管理角度来看,应推进差别化土地供应模式的实行,促进产业结构升级,推动高能耗的高碳产业向低能耗的低碳产业发展;从技术角度考虑,一方面应改善能源结构,提高能源利用效率,降低能源消耗,同时开发和利用清洁能源,另一方面也要改善农用地管理技术,节约农业投入,发展低碳农业。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the increase of greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations such as global CO2, carbon emission reduction has been paid more and more attention by the whole society and become a hot issue in academic circles. As the natural carrier of ecological environment and the space carrier of human social and economic activities, land inevitably produces a large amount of carbon emissions in land use. Combining with carbon emissions of land use to optimize the structure of land use can not only achieve better carbon emission reduction but also help to improve the overall efficiency of land use. On the basis of this, this paper analyzes the land use based on carbon emission reduction goal from the external and internal power of the land use system, and constructs the land use structure optimization model based on the carbon emission reduction target. Based on this model, the land use structure adjustment index given in the General Land use Plan of Jiangsu Province (2006-2020) is optimized, and the carbon abatement potential of the optimized result is analyzed. The conclusions are as follows: (1) carbon abatement and the operation of land use system complement each other. Consciously adjusting the land use structure can not only protect the land resources and realize the economic growth, but also achieve the goal of carbon emission reduction while developing the economy. (2) the carbon budget of land use in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2012 shows overall carbon emissions. And showing a growth trend. The factors affecting the change of net carbon emissions of land use in Jiangsu Province are listed as follows: net carbon emission intensity of land per unit of economic development land use structure population scale per unit GDP land intensity. Although the economic development and the land use structure effect have the obvious pulling effect to the land use net carbon emission growth. However, further studies show that the decoupling relationship between land use net carbon emissions and economic growth in Jiangsu Province is weak in the past eight years, and the period 2009-2012 is a high effect period of net carbon emissions from land use structure changes in Jiangsu Province. It implies that there is great potential to reduce the net carbon emissions of land use by optimizing the land use structure at present. (3) the land use structure optimization scheme of Jiangsu Province obtained by the optimization model has some advantages compared with the "plan". The optimized scheme can not only achieve the goal of reducing carbon emissions, but also give consideration to the ecological benefits of land use. It can basically meet the requirements of economic development, food security and ecological protection in Jiangsu Province in 2020. Based on the above conclusions, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on land use in Jiangsu province: considering the arrangement of land use structure, we should strictly control the expansion of construction land, reduce the proportion of land allocation in high-energy consumption industry. At the same time, we should strengthen the ecological land protection, enhance the ability of land carbon sequestration, from the point of view of land use administration and market management, we should promote the implementation of differentiated land supply mode and promote the upgrading of industrial structure. Promoting the development of high-carbon industries with high energy consumption to low-carbon industries with low energy consumption. From a technical point of view, on the one hand, the energy structure should be improved, energy efficiency should be increased, energy consumption should be reduced, and clean energy sources should be developed and utilized at the same time. On the other hand, we should improve agricultural land management technology, save agricultural input, and develop low-carbon agriculture.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F301.2
本文编号：2167772
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the increase of greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations such as global CO2, carbon emission reduction has been paid more and more attention by the whole society and become a hot issue in academic circles. As the natural carrier of ecological environment and the space carrier of human social and economic activities, land inevitably produces a large amount of carbon emissions in land use. Combining with carbon emissions of land use to optimize the structure of land use can not only achieve better carbon emission reduction but also help to improve the overall efficiency of land use. On the basis of this, this paper analyzes the land use based on carbon emission reduction goal from the external and internal power of the land use system, and constructs the land use structure optimization model based on the carbon emission reduction target. Based on this model, the land use structure adjustment index given in the General Land use Plan of Jiangsu Province (2006-2020) is optimized, and the carbon abatement potential of the optimized result is analyzed. The conclusions are as follows: (1) carbon abatement and the operation of land use system complement each other. Consciously adjusting the land use structure can not only protect the land resources and realize the economic growth, but also achieve the goal of carbon emission reduction while developing the economy. (2) the carbon budget of land use in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2012 shows overall carbon emissions. And showing a growth trend. The factors affecting the change of net carbon emissions of land use in Jiangsu Province are listed as follows: net carbon emission intensity of land per unit of economic development land use structure population scale per unit GDP land intensity. Although the economic development and the land use structure effect have the obvious pulling effect to the land use net carbon emission growth. However, further studies show that the decoupling relationship between land use net carbon emissions and economic growth in Jiangsu Province is weak in the past eight years, and the period 2009-2012 is a high effect period of net carbon emissions from land use structure changes in Jiangsu Province. It implies that there is great potential to reduce the net carbon emissions of land use by optimizing the land use structure at present. (3) the land use structure optimization scheme of Jiangsu Province obtained by the optimization model has some advantages compared with the "plan". The optimized scheme can not only achieve the goal of reducing carbon emissions, but also give consideration to the ecological benefits of land use. It can basically meet the requirements of economic development, food security and ecological protection in Jiangsu Province in 2020. Based on the above conclusions, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on land use in Jiangsu province: considering the arrangement of land use structure, we should strictly control the expansion of construction land, reduce the proportion of land allocation in high-energy consumption industry. At the same time, we should strengthen the ecological land protection, enhance the ability of land carbon sequestration, from the point of view of land use administration and market management, we should promote the implementation of differentiated land supply mode and promote the upgrading of industrial structure. Promoting the development of high-carbon industries with high energy consumption to low-carbon industries with low energy consumption. From a technical point of view, on the one hand, the energy structure should be improved, energy efficiency should be increased, energy consumption should be reduced, and clean energy sources should be developed and utilized at the same time. On the other hand, we should improve agricultural land management technology, save agricultural input, and develop low-carbon agriculture.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F301.2
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 方精云;郭兆迪;朴世龙;陈安平;;1981～2000年中国陆地植被碳汇的估算[J];中国科学(D辑:地球科学);2007年06期
，本文编号：2167772
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