基于Shift-Share模型的“镰刀弯”地区粮食增产结构变动分析——兼论玉米种植结构调整

发布时间：2018-08-16 08:11

【摘要】：[目的]"镰刀弯"地区玉米种植面积大幅度增加,粮食种植结构单一,为确保粮食安全稳定、多元化发展,需要明确该地区粮食生产结构中不同作物的变化特点和竞争优势。[方法]文章运用ShiftShare模型对"镰刀弯"地区的粮食作物生产结构和竞争力优势进行比较,分析了水稻、玉米、薯类、豆类以及其他作物的结构和竞争力优势差异。[结果]"镰刀弯"地区内部不同区域之间不同作物的结构优势和竞争力优势差异明显,其主要原因在于不同作物的播种面积和单位面积产量增长变动速度不同。[结论]"镰刀弯"地区粮食种植结构的调整,尤其是玉米种植面积的调减,应当充分考虑不同作物之间的优势差异,在满足可持续发展和市场需求且不形成过度供给的情况下,增加优势作物的种植,最终形成合理的种植结构和区域布局。
[Abstract]:[objective] Maize planting area increased greatly and grain planting structure was single in "sickle bend" area. In order to ensure food security, stability and diversified development, it is necessary to make clear the changing characteristics and competitive advantages of different crops in grain production structure in this area. [methods] ShiftShare model was used to compare the production structure and competitive advantage of grain crops in "sickle bend" area, and the differences of structure and competitive advantage of rice, corn, potato, legume and other crops were analyzed. [results] the structural and competitive advantages of different crops in different regions of "sickle bend" area were obviously different. The main reason was that the growth rate of yield per unit area and sown area of different crops were different. [conclusion] the adjustment of grain planting structure in "sickle bend" area, especially the adjustment and reduction of corn planting area, should fully consider the advantage difference between different crops and meet the sustainable development and market demand without excessive supply. Increase the planting of superior crops, and finally form a reasonable planting structure and regional layout.
【作者单位】：吉林农业大学经济管理学院;吉林省农业科学院;吉林农业大学粮食主产区农村经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“东北粮食主产区耕地质量下降问题研究”(71640039) 农业部软科学研究项目“玉米临储价格调整效应和玉米目标价格改革问题研究”(Z201610) 吉林省教育厅“十二五”规划项目“粮食主产区农业基础设施增收效应研究”(吉教科文合字[2014]第45号) 吉林省社会科学基金重点项目“农村地租:现状、影响以及发展趋势的研究——以吉林省为例”(2016A21) 吉林省“十三五”智库规划基金项目“吉林省秸秆综合利用问题研究”(2017JLSZKZB038) 吉林省农业科学院创新工程(研究生基金)项目“吉林省农户对玉米生产者补贴政策的评价及行为响应”(c7208000204)
【分类号】：F326.11

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