我国玉米价格波动及影响因素研究
发布时间：2018-08-18 11:04
【摘要】：粮食是民生之本,粮食安全问题不仅是社会问题更是政治问题。粮食价格作为百价之基,长期以来为社会各界广泛关注。随着我国粮食市场的发展以及开放程度的逐步提高,影响粮食价格波动的因素逐渐趋于多元化和复杂化,粮价的频繁波动给粮食生产者和消费者造成了重大的影响。玉米作为我国重要的粮食品种,在我国粮食安全中占据重要地位,对玉米价格波动特征和波动影响因素的全面深入的研究有助于进一步了解我国玉米价格波动的规律,以期为稳定我国玉米市场提供决策依据,进而促进我国玉米市场的健康稳定发展,为我国其他粮食品种的调控策略提供参考。本文从我国玉米供给和需求现状着手,系统分析了我国玉米生产、消费、贸易以及库存等方面的具体状况,并以直观的图表方式反映了改革开放以来我国玉米变化发展状况;接着采用H-P滤波分解法对1990年-2015年我国玉米价格的时间序列数据进行趋势分离,在成分分解和周期化分的基础上对玉米价格波动进行了趋势特征和周期特征分析;并进一步在局部均衡理论分析框架的基础上构建由面积方程、单产方程、饲用玉米消费方程等七个行为方程、两个定义方程和一个平衡方程组成的我国玉米市场局部均衡模型,并通过对影响价格波动的主要外生变量进行情景模拟,实证探究1990年-2013年影响我国玉米价格波动的主要影响因素。研究结果表明:在波动特征上,我国玉米价格波动存在平稳增长的长期趋势,整体上呈现非对称性和显著的周期性,且在不同的时期我国玉米价格波动特征存在较大差异,2002年以前价格波动幅度较大,其后波动幅度降低,直至2007年在国际因素的影响下波动幅度出现小幅上涨,但涨幅有限。在价格波动的影响因素上,人均国内生产总值以及城镇化率的上升是2009年-2013年影响我国玉米价格波动的主要影响因素,且人均国内生产总值对玉米价格波动的影响更大:国际玉米价格对我国玉米市场价格影响相对有限;临时收储政策调动了农民的生产积极性,促进了玉米生产和价格的稳定,使玉米价格波动在国际粮价剧烈波动大背景下仍然保持着相对稳定,但同时也造成我国玉米库存大量积压,国内外玉米价格倒挂。基于以上研究结论,本文从提高玉米生产效率、稳定玉米市场、完善玉米价格形成机制、统筹国内外市场等角度提出了政策建议。
[Abstract]:Food is the root of people's livelihood, food security is not only a social problem but also a political issue. Grain price as the basis of 100-price, has long been widely concerned by the community. With the development of China's grain market and the gradual improvement of the opening degree, the factors affecting the fluctuation of grain prices tend to be diversified and complicated, and the frequent fluctuations of grain prices have a great impact on grain producers and consumers. Maize, as an important grain variety in China, plays an important role in China's food security. A thorough study on the characteristics of corn price fluctuation and its influencing factors is helpful to further understand the regularity of corn price fluctuation in China. In order to provide the decision basis for stabilizing the corn market in our country, and then promote the healthy and stable development of the corn market in our country, and provide the reference for the regulation and control strategy of other grain varieties in our country. Based on the current situation of corn supply and demand in China, this paper systematically analyzes the specific situation of corn production, consumption, trade and stock in China, and reflects the change and development of maize in China in the form of intuitionistic chart since the reform and opening up. Then the time series data of maize price in China from 1990 to 2015 were separated by H-P filter decomposition method, and the trend characteristics and periodic characteristics of corn price fluctuation were analyzed on the basis of component decomposition and periodicity. On the basis of the analysis frame of local equilibrium theory, a local equilibrium model of corn market in China is constructed, which consists of seven behavioral equations, including area equation, yield equation, forage corn consumption equation, two definition equations and one equilibrium equation. Through the scenario simulation of the main exogenous variables which affect the price fluctuation, this paper empirically explores the main factors that affect the price fluctuation of maize in China from 1990 to 2013. The results show that there is a long-term trend of stable growth of corn price fluctuation in China, and the whole maize price fluctuates with asymmetry and significant periodicity. The price fluctuation of maize in China varied greatly in different periods. Before 2002, the price fluctuation range was large, then the fluctuation range decreased, until 2007, under the influence of international factors, the fluctuation range increased slightly, but the increase was limited. Among the influencing factors of price fluctuation, the increase of per capita GDP and urbanization rate is the main factor that affects the price fluctuation of maize in China from 2009 to 2013. Moreover, the per capita GDP has a greater impact on the fluctuation of corn price: the international corn price has relatively limited influence on the corn market price in China; the temporary reserve policy has mobilized the farmers' enthusiasm for production and promoted the stability of maize production and price. The fluctuation of corn price is still relatively stable under the background of severe fluctuation of international grain price, but at the same time, it also causes a large backlog of corn stocks in our country, and domestic and foreign corn prices are hanging upside down. Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions from the aspects of improving the maize production efficiency, stabilizing the corn market, perfecting the mechanism of corn price formation and coordinating the domestic and foreign markets.
【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.7
本文编号：2189271
[Abstract]:Food is the root of people's livelihood, food security is not only a social problem but also a political issue. Grain price as the basis of 100-price, has long been widely concerned by the community. With the development of China's grain market and the gradual improvement of the opening degree, the factors affecting the fluctuation of grain prices tend to be diversified and complicated, and the frequent fluctuations of grain prices have a great impact on grain producers and consumers. Maize, as an important grain variety in China, plays an important role in China's food security. A thorough study on the characteristics of corn price fluctuation and its influencing factors is helpful to further understand the regularity of corn price fluctuation in China. In order to provide the decision basis for stabilizing the corn market in our country, and then promote the healthy and stable development of the corn market in our country, and provide the reference for the regulation and control strategy of other grain varieties in our country. Based on the current situation of corn supply and demand in China, this paper systematically analyzes the specific situation of corn production, consumption, trade and stock in China, and reflects the change and development of maize in China in the form of intuitionistic chart since the reform and opening up. Then the time series data of maize price in China from 1990 to 2015 were separated by H-P filter decomposition method, and the trend characteristics and periodic characteristics of corn price fluctuation were analyzed on the basis of component decomposition and periodicity. On the basis of the analysis frame of local equilibrium theory, a local equilibrium model of corn market in China is constructed, which consists of seven behavioral equations, including area equation, yield equation, forage corn consumption equation, two definition equations and one equilibrium equation. Through the scenario simulation of the main exogenous variables which affect the price fluctuation, this paper empirically explores the main factors that affect the price fluctuation of maize in China from 1990 to 2013. The results show that there is a long-term trend of stable growth of corn price fluctuation in China, and the whole maize price fluctuates with asymmetry and significant periodicity. The price fluctuation of maize in China varied greatly in different periods. Before 2002, the price fluctuation range was large, then the fluctuation range decreased, until 2007, under the influence of international factors, the fluctuation range increased slightly, but the increase was limited. Among the influencing factors of price fluctuation, the increase of per capita GDP and urbanization rate is the main factor that affects the price fluctuation of maize in China from 2009 to 2013. Moreover, the per capita GDP has a greater impact on the fluctuation of corn price: the international corn price has relatively limited influence on the corn market price in China; the temporary reserve policy has mobilized the farmers' enthusiasm for production and promoted the stability of maize production and price. The fluctuation of corn price is still relatively stable under the background of severe fluctuation of international grain price, but at the same time, it also causes a large backlog of corn stocks in our country, and domestic and foreign corn prices are hanging upside down. Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions from the aspects of improving the maize production efficiency, stabilizing the corn market, perfecting the mechanism of corn price formation and coordinating the domestic and foreign markets.
【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.7
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