中国林业经济发展的波动及成因分析

发布时间：2018-08-18 13:36

【摘要】：林业是国民经济的重要组成部分,兼具生态、社会和经济效益。以1998年至2013年这一时期为例,中国林业经济连续15年的年均增长率达到了20.95%,为国民经济的稳定运行提供了保障。1998年特大洪灾过后,林业的生态功能被高度重视,林业六大工程的启动、《关于加快林业发展的决定》的推出、将生态文明纳入中国特色社会主义事业“五位一体”总体布局,这些改革在把林业的地位和作用推向新的战略高度的同时,也影响到了林业的经济效益。分析林业经济的周期性及波动的影响因素,有利于正确认识林业经济的发展规律、对现行的林业政策进行合理的评价,对于未来林业经济发展目标、模式的选择也具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。本文以林业总产值作为林业经济的考察指标,首先识别了1998年至今林业经济出现的4次短期波动及2次中期波动,其中2002年为中期波动的拐点。其次,运用线性回归、索洛余值法、格兰杰因果检验等方法分析了林业部门内各因素对林业经济波动的影响,并进一步研究了林业经济与国民经济的关联性,以及林业经济波动的区域差异。最后,本文运用ARIMA模型拟合和预测了林业经济的波动趋势。结果显示：全国31个省根据林业经济的波动特征可分为4个区域,其中3个区域在2008年前后林业第一、二产业的经济波动中出现波谷；林业产业结构、要素供给、林业财政政策及林业生态建设对林业经济的波动有显著影响；2006年～2013年,林业经济的波动滞后于国民经济的波动,二者呈负相关；预测结果显示,2014年～2018年林业经济将处于持续扩张阶段。最后,根据不同影响因素对林业经济波动的影响,本文提出以下对策建议：兼顾林业的生态、社会、经济效益,调整原有的林业产业结构、经营管理体制及产业布局；开发森林的多种效能,在发挥森林的生态功能的同时,开展林下经济、森林旅游等多种形式的经营模式；提高林业的技术贡献率,加快林业的科技体制改革；将林业的生态效益纳入国民经济核算体系,以提高社会对林业经济发展的重视等。
[Abstract]:Forestry is an important part of the national economy, with ecological, social and economic benefits. Taking the period from 1998 to 2013 as an example, the average annual growth rate of China's forestry economy for 15 consecutive years has reached 20.95%, which provides a guarantee for the stable operation of the national economy. After the catastrophic flood in 1998, the ecological function of forestry was highly valued. The launching of the six major forestry projects, the introduction of the "decision on speeding up Forestry Development" and the introduction of ecological civilization into the overall layout of the "five-in-one" cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics, These reforms not only push the status and function of forestry to a new strategic height, but also affect the economic benefits of forestry. The analysis of the periodicity of forestry economy and the influencing factors of fluctuation is beneficial to the correct understanding of the development law of forestry economy, the reasonable evaluation of current forestry policy, and the development goal of forestry economy in the future. The choice of model also has important theoretical significance and practical value. In this paper, the gross output value of forestry is regarded as the index of forestry economy. Firstly, four short-term fluctuations and two medium-term fluctuations of forestry economy have been identified from 1998 to now, of which 2002 is the inflection point of medium-term fluctuation. Secondly, using linear regression, Solow residual value method, Granger causality test and other methods, this paper analyzes the influence of various factors in forestry sector on forestry economic fluctuation, and further studies the relationship between forestry economy and national economy. And the regional difference of forestry economic fluctuation. Finally, this paper uses ARIMA model to fit and predict the fluctuation trend of forestry economy. The results show that according to the fluctuation characteristics of forestry economy, 31 provinces in China can be divided into 4 regions, 3 of which have troughs in the economic fluctuations of the first and second industries of forestry before and after 2008, the structure of forestry industry, the supply of factors, Forestry fiscal policy and forestry ecological construction have significant influence on the fluctuation of forestry economy, from 2006 to 2013, the fluctuation of forestry economy lags behind the fluctuation of national economy, and they are negatively correlated. The forecast results show that forestry economy will continue to expand from 2014 to 2018. Finally, according to the influence of different factors on forestry economic fluctuation, this paper puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions: take into account the ecological, social and economic benefits of forestry, adjust the original forestry industry structure, management system and industrial layout; Developing various kinds of efficiency of forest, developing many kinds of management modes such as forest economy, forest tourism and so on while giving play to the ecological function of forest, improving the technical contribution rate of forestry, speeding up the reform of science and technology system of forestry; The ecological benefit of forestry should be brought into the system of national economic accounting in order to enhance the society's attention to the development of forestry economy.
【学位授予单位】：北京林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F326.2

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