吉林省粮食产能预警系统建设问题研究

发布时间：2018-08-20 14:23

【摘要】：作为商品粮供应基地及全国十三个粮食主产区之一,吉林省的农业机械化不断提高,现代农业迅猛发展,粮食产能也随之逐渐增长。然而,在全国粮食政策的指导下及供需平衡的作用下,粮食产能并非越多越好。粮食产能过少,可能会引起由温饱问题而造成的恐慌;粮食产能过高,可能会由粮食降价而引起的谷贱伤民的情况发生。因此,建立合理的粮食产能预警系统及其运行机制,对于保障粮食的供求平衡具有十分重要的作用。同时,也为国家对于粮食的宏观调控及政策安排提供了可靠依据。本文主要内容包括七部分:第一部分为导论部分,主要是对粮食产能预警系统问题国内外研究现状进行介绍,并阐述文章的立题依据、研究内容、研究方法、技术路线及研究创新点;第二部分是概念界定与理论基础,主要对粮食产能及粮食产能预警系统的相关概念进行界定,并主要对蛛网理论、梯度理论和供需均衡理论等相关理论进行解释和说明,为全文设定研究对象和做出了研究范围;第三部分对吉林省粮食产能预警系统建设现状进行分析,主要是对粮食产能市场预警、粮食产能制度预警、粮食产能物流预警及关联产业预警进行分析。第四部分提出了吉林省粮食产能预警系统目前存在的问题,为后面行文做基础铺垫;第五部分则是通过构建合理有效的粮食产能预警系统和机制对当前吉林省粮食产能预警系统行实证研究,主要构建粮食产能市场预警系统、粮食产能制度预警系统、粮食产能物流预警系统及关联产业预警系统,同时构建使四个预警系统合理运作的运行机制。第六部分提出相关对策建议,确保粮食产能预警系统高效、有序地运行。第七部分为结论,对文章进行总结。通过本文研究,主要得出了以下结论:第一,市场要素是粮食产能预警系统的基础;政策和制度是建立预警系统的风向标;物流要素预警系统的重要保障;关联产业是预警系统的关键因素。第二、吉林省粮食产能预警系统存在很多问题,即粮食交易市场预警信息发展滞后;地方政策的预警能量传输效率低;低效率粮食存储抑制了粮食产能预警;粮食产业低关联阻碍了粮食产能预警;种子研发的预警功能发挥不足等。第三、要想充分发挥四个要素的预警功能,要大力发展粮食期货,提升粮食产能预警功能;其次,要完善订单模式粮食生产,加速粮食生产合作社发展;同时,政府要健全法律制度,扩大预警影响;并且要完善交通运输基础建设,发展物流新业态;最后,要提高粮食科技研发功能,加速粮食关联产业发展。
[Abstract]:As a commodity grain supply base and one of the 13 main grain producing areas in China, agricultural mechanization in Jilin Province has been continuously improved, modern agriculture has developed rapidly, and grain production capacity has gradually increased. However, under the guidance of national grain policy and balance of supply and demand, grain production capacity is not as much as possible. Too little food production may cause panic caused by the problem of food and clothing. Therefore, the establishment of a reasonable early warning system for grain production capacity and its operational mechanism plays an important role in ensuring the balance of grain supply and demand. At the same time, it also provides reliable basis for national macro-control and policy arrangement for grain. The main contents of this paper include seven parts: the first part is the introduction part, mainly introduces the domestic and foreign research status of grain production capacity early warning system, and expounds the basis of the article, research content, research methods, The second part is the concept definition and the theoretical basis, mainly defines the grain production capacity and the grain production capacity early warning system related concept, and mainly to the cobweb theory, The gradient theory and supply-demand equilibrium theory are explained and explained to set the research object and scope for the full text. The third part analyzes the current situation of the construction of grain productivity early warning system in Jilin Province. It mainly analyzes the market early warning of grain production capacity, the early warning of grain production capacity system, the early warning of grain production capacity logistics and the early warning of related industries. The fourth part puts forward the existing problems of the grain production capacity early warning system in Jilin Province, which lays the foundation for the future work. The fifth part is an empirical study on the current grain productivity early warning system of Jilin Province through the construction of a reasonable and effective early warning system and mechanism of grain production capacity, mainly to build a market early warning system for grain production capacity and an early warning system for grain production capacity system. The logistics early warning system of grain production capacity and the early warning system of related industries are constructed, and the operation mechanism of the four warning systems is constructed. The sixth part puts forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestions to ensure the efficient and orderly operation of the early warning system of grain production capacity. The seventh part is the conclusion, carries on the summary to the article. The main conclusions are as follows: first, market factor is the basis of grain production capacity early warning system, policy and system is the wind vane of establishing early warning system, the important guarantee of logistics element early warning system; The related industry is the key factor of the early warning system. Second, there are many problems in the early warning system of grain production capacity in Jilin Province, that is, the development of early warning information in the grain trading market is lagging behind, the efficiency of early warning energy transmission in local policies is low, and the low efficiency grain storage inhibits the early warning of grain production capacity. The low correlation of grain industry hinders the early warning of grain production capacity; the early warning function of seed R & D is insufficient. Third, if we want to give full play to the early warning function of the four elements, we should vigorously develop grain futures and enhance the early warning function of grain production capacity; secondly, we should improve the order pattern of grain production and accelerate the development of grain production cooperatives; at the same time, The government should perfect the legal system, enlarge the influence of early warning, perfect the transportation infrastructure and develop the new logistics mode. Finally, it should improve the research and development function of grain science and technology and accelerate the development of grain related industries.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F326.11

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