授权植物品种综合质量与价值评估研究
发布时间：2018-08-25 11:33
【摘要】：植物新品种是农业生产的核心要素,品种权是未来农业发展的战略性资源,加速新品种育种创新和转化应用是提升我国农业国际核心竞争力、保障现代农业持续健康发展和国家粮食安全的根本出路。随着我国植物新品种保护事业的不断发展,调动了全社会育种创新的积极性,加速了新品种的培育,植物新品种权申请、授权量大幅增长。截至到2014年12月底,累计受理品种权申请达13221件,授权4808件,近七年来年申请量每年以7.26%的速度飞速增长。据UPOV统计,2004年以来,我国品种权年申请量一直位居UPOV成员第四,2010年跃居第二位,仅次于美国。从品种权申请量上看,我国可以称得上“品种权大国”,然而从品种权质量上看我国并非“品种权强国”,因为在申请的品种权中,大多品种都是创新性低的商业修饰品种以及急功近利型的短线品种,原创性的主控品种和防御型战略型的原创品种少,品种权竞争力较弱,质量令人担忧。另外,长期以来,我国基本形成了以科教单位为新品种选育主体的格局。科教单位虽然有突出的育种科研优势,但其科技成果自主开发和生产经营能力较弱;另一方面,我国大多数种业企业虽拥有健全的生产销售体系以及推广和经营品种优势,但其科研育种实力相对薄弱。这种研究与推广实施机构的分离是导致我国品种权转化利用率低的根本原因。因此,建立健全种业科企合作机制成为提高品种权转化利用率的关键,而合理的品种权定价机制是实现品种权顺利转化实施的基础。基于此,本论文借鉴现有无形资产价值评估模型以及质量评估方法,结合植物新品种权自身的特点,以统计学、计量学和经济学为基础,构建授权植物品种基于逻辑回归的综合质量模型和基于收益还原法的价值评估模型。首先,界定了授权植物品种的质量以及价值相关的概念,其次,利用均衡价值理论深入研究了品种权的价值形成机理;然后,从技术、市场和法律三方面出发,构建了授权植物品种综合质量指标体系,并建立了授权植物品种质量指数模型;接着,选用收益还原法估值模型,利用品种权数据资料,估算收益还原法各评估参数,动态测算授权植物品种价值,并进行案例分析;最后得出本文的主要研究结论以及需要进一步研究和探讨的问题。本论文研究结论主要有以下四个方面:第一,界定了授权植物品种的质量和价值的概念及两者之间的关系。本研究详细论述了授权植物品种的质量以及价值的概念界定问题,授权植物品种质量是授权植物品种对于授权植物品种使用者利用授权植物品种特性形成竞争力的重要程度,授权植物品种价值是指授权植物品种在整个品种权保护期内由于特征特性的改良而为企业或者个人带来的超额收益,或节约的成本,包括品种权的价值和植物新品种本身的价值,并且认为授权植物品种质量是其价值的重要决定因素,授权植物品种价值在一定程度上能够反映其质量,两者是两个不同层面的概念,不能笼统的一概而论,更不能等同。第二,剖析了基于均衡价值论的品种权价值评估区间。本研究利用均衡价值论,根据植物新品种权价值的特殊性和复杂性,从供给和需求的角度分析植物新品种权价值区间评估模型。对于供给方而言,确定其价值区间的下限是供给方价值评估的关键问题;对于需求方而言,确定其价值区间的上限是需求方价值评估的关键问题。当植物新品种权的供给方与需求方各自确定的价值区间进行复合时,确定双方可以同时接受的可能价格区间,然后通过双方交易者的谈判,最终形成一个合理的交易价格,这个价格就是市场机制下确定的植物新品种权的价值。第三,构建了授权杂交水稻综合质量指数。本研究利用线性加权综合法构建了授权杂交水稻质量综合指数,该指数将权利地域分布、抗稻瘟病和累计推广面积三个指标反映的不同质量信息综合为一体,不受授权年份的约束,不仅可以横向或纵向地比较授权杂交水稻之间的质量差异,还可以判断授权杂交水稻质量水平在系统中所处的位置,是一个操作性强、运用范围广、评价有效性高的综合指数。第四,设计了基于收益还原法的授权杂交水稻价值评估模型。本研究通过分析收益还原法的原理,利用授权杂交水稻数据,估算收益还原法的主要评估参数,建立了授权杂交水稻的价值评估模型。本研究利用威布尔生存分布函数估算出授权杂交水稻品种的平均寿命为10.013年,高斯模型估算出单个授权杂交水稻剩余有效寿命,例如两优培九的剩余有效寿命为9.485年;接着,通过对WACC和CAPM进行优化与发展,构建了改进型折现率估算模型,得出2013年的品种权折现率为5.3%;最后,结合植物新品种权的特点,利用投资回报率的原理,估算出中国品种权贡献率为4.51%,远远低于发达国家的平均水平15%。
[Abstract]:New plant varieties are the core elements of agricultural production and variety rights are the strategic resources for future agricultural development. Accelerating the innovation and transformation of new plant varieties is the fundamental way to enhance the international core competitiveness of China's agriculture and ensure the sustainable and healthy development of modern agriculture and national food security. By the end of December 2014, the cumulative number of applications for variety rights had reached 13221, and 4808 were authorized. In the past seven years, the annual number of applications has increased rapidly by 7.26% per year. China ranks fourth in the annual application volume of variety rights, ranking second only to the United States in 2010, and ranks second in the annual application volume of variety rights. In addition, for a long time, China has basically formed the pattern of taking scientific and educational units as the main body of new variety breeding. On the other hand, although most of the seed enterprises in China have sound production and marketing system, as well as advantages in popularization and management of varieties, their scientific research and breeding strength is relatively weak. The separation of research and popularization agencies is the fundamental reason for the low utilization rate of variety rights in China. Therefore, the establishment and improvement of seed industry cooperation mechanism between science and enterprise is the key to improve the utilization rate of variety right conversion, and a reasonable pricing mechanism of variety right is the basis for the smooth implementation of variety right conversion. Based on statistics, econometrics and economics, a comprehensive quality model of authorized plant varieties based on logistic regression and a value evaluation model based on income reduction method are constructed. Secondly, from three aspects of technology, market and law, the comprehensive quality index system of authorized plant varieties is constructed, and the quality index model of authorized plant varieties is established. Then, the income reduction method is used to estimate the evaluation parameters of the income reduction method, and the value of authorized plant varieties is dynamically calculated. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: Firstly, the concept of quality and value of authorized plant varieties and the relationship between them are defined. The quality and price of authorized plant varieties are discussed in detail. Conceptual definition of value, quality of authorized plant varieties is the importance of authorized plant varieties for the users of authorized plant varieties to use the characteristics of authorized plant varieties to form competitiveness. Excess income, or cost savings, including the value of variety rights and the value of new plant varieties themselves, and that the quality of authorized plant varieties is an important determinant of their value, authorized plant variety value to a certain extent can reflect its quality, both are two different levels of concepts, can not be generalized, let alone not be generalized. Secondly, the evaluation interval of new plant variety rights is analyzed based on equilibrium axiology. According to the particularity and complexity of the value of new plant variety rights, the evaluation model of new plant variety rights is analyzed from the angle of supply and demand. The key problem of supplier value evaluation is to determine the upper limit of the value interval for the demander. When the supplier and the demander of the new plant variety right compound their respective value intervals, the possible price interval that can be accepted by both sides is determined, and then the two sides negotiate with each other. Third, the comprehensive quality index of authorized hybrid rice was constructed. In this study, the comprehensive quality index of authorized hybrid rice was constructed by using the linear weighted synthesis method. The index will distribute the rights in different regions, resist rice blast and burden. Considering the different quality information reflected by the three indicators of extension area, it is not restricted by the authorized years. It can not only compare the quality differences between authorized hybrid rice horizontally or vertically, but also judge the position of the authorized hybrid rice quality level in the system. It is a highly operational, widely used and effective evaluation. Fourthly, an authorized hybrid rice value evaluation model based on income reduction method is designed. By analyzing the principle of income reduction method and using authorized hybrid rice data, the main evaluation parameters of income reduction method are estimated, and a model of authorized hybrid rice value evaluation is established. Distribution function estimates the average life of authorized hybrid rice varieties to be 10.013 years, Gauss model estimates the remaining effective life of a single authorized hybrid rice, such as Liangyoupeijiu residual effective life of 9.485 years; then, through the optimization and development of WACC and CAPM, an improved discount rate estimation model is constructed, and the variety of 2013 is obtained. The discount rate is 5.3%. Finally, according to the characteristics of new plant variety rights and the principle of return on investment, the contribution rate of China's variety rights is estimated to be 4.51%, which is far below the average level of developed countries by 15%.
【学位授予单位】：中国农业科学院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.5
，
本文编号：2202756
[Abstract]:New plant varieties are the core elements of agricultural production and variety rights are the strategic resources for future agricultural development. Accelerating the innovation and transformation of new plant varieties is the fundamental way to enhance the international core competitiveness of China's agriculture and ensure the sustainable and healthy development of modern agriculture and national food security. By the end of December 2014, the cumulative number of applications for variety rights had reached 13221, and 4808 were authorized. In the past seven years, the annual number of applications has increased rapidly by 7.26% per year. China ranks fourth in the annual application volume of variety rights, ranking second only to the United States in 2010, and ranks second in the annual application volume of variety rights. In addition, for a long time, China has basically formed the pattern of taking scientific and educational units as the main body of new variety breeding. On the other hand, although most of the seed enterprises in China have sound production and marketing system, as well as advantages in popularization and management of varieties, their scientific research and breeding strength is relatively weak. The separation of research and popularization agencies is the fundamental reason for the low utilization rate of variety rights in China. Therefore, the establishment and improvement of seed industry cooperation mechanism between science and enterprise is the key to improve the utilization rate of variety right conversion, and a reasonable pricing mechanism of variety right is the basis for the smooth implementation of variety right conversion. Based on statistics, econometrics and economics, a comprehensive quality model of authorized plant varieties based on logistic regression and a value evaluation model based on income reduction method are constructed. Secondly, from three aspects of technology, market and law, the comprehensive quality index system of authorized plant varieties is constructed, and the quality index model of authorized plant varieties is established. Then, the income reduction method is used to estimate the evaluation parameters of the income reduction method, and the value of authorized plant varieties is dynamically calculated. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: Firstly, the concept of quality and value of authorized plant varieties and the relationship between them are defined. The quality and price of authorized plant varieties are discussed in detail. Conceptual definition of value, quality of authorized plant varieties is the importance of authorized plant varieties for the users of authorized plant varieties to use the characteristics of authorized plant varieties to form competitiveness. Excess income, or cost savings, including the value of variety rights and the value of new plant varieties themselves, and that the quality of authorized plant varieties is an important determinant of their value, authorized plant variety value to a certain extent can reflect its quality, both are two different levels of concepts, can not be generalized, let alone not be generalized. Secondly, the evaluation interval of new plant variety rights is analyzed based on equilibrium axiology. According to the particularity and complexity of the value of new plant variety rights, the evaluation model of new plant variety rights is analyzed from the angle of supply and demand. The key problem of supplier value evaluation is to determine the upper limit of the value interval for the demander. When the supplier and the demander of the new plant variety right compound their respective value intervals, the possible price interval that can be accepted by both sides is determined, and then the two sides negotiate with each other. Third, the comprehensive quality index of authorized hybrid rice was constructed. In this study, the comprehensive quality index of authorized hybrid rice was constructed by using the linear weighted synthesis method. The index will distribute the rights in different regions, resist rice blast and burden. Considering the different quality information reflected by the three indicators of extension area, it is not restricted by the authorized years. It can not only compare the quality differences between authorized hybrid rice horizontally or vertically, but also judge the position of the authorized hybrid rice quality level in the system. It is a highly operational, widely used and effective evaluation. Fourthly, an authorized hybrid rice value evaluation model based on income reduction method is designed. By analyzing the principle of income reduction method and using authorized hybrid rice data, the main evaluation parameters of income reduction method are estimated, and a model of authorized hybrid rice value evaluation is established. Distribution function estimates the average life of authorized hybrid rice varieties to be 10.013 years, Gauss model estimates the remaining effective life of a single authorized hybrid rice, such as Liangyoupeijiu residual effective life of 9.485 years; then, through the optimization and development of WACC and CAPM, an improved discount rate estimation model is constructed, and the variety of 2013 is obtained. The discount rate is 5.3%. Finally, according to the characteristics of new plant variety rights and the principle of return on investment, the contribution rate of China's variety rights is estimated to be 4.51%, which is far below the average level of developed countries by 15%.
【学位授予单位】：中国农业科学院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.5
，
本文编号：2202756
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