攀枝花城市转型中的城市建设用地需求预测研究
发布时间：2018-08-29 08:00
【摘要】：我国正处于城镇化快速发展时期,伴随着社会、经济、人口不断变化,城市建设用地需求量也在不断增加。资源型城市作为利用特殊资源条件而发展起来的城市,目前正面临或即将面临资源枯竭的困境,如何走出困境?城市转型则是其城市可持续发展的必经之路。由于资源型城镇普遍具有用地条件特殊、城市用地难度大等典型特征,如何解决新能源利用与替代、城市功能置换、城市设施改造与更新,以及城市空间、城市文化、城市生态的修复等问题,这对资源型城市建设用地结构、合理利用开发都提出了更高、更严的要求。攀枝花作为西部典型的资源型城市,无论是其城市发展与转型的历程,还是未来即将面临的可持续发展困境,都将面临城市建设用地如何合理适度开发,如何改善城市居住环境等均具有较强的代表性的问题。本文以攀枝花市为例,在明确了城市建设用地定义及内涵基础上,结合相关历史文献与实地考察,综合分析攀枝花城市建设用地现状特征,利用灰色关联度法提取了影响攀枝花城市建设用地的主要因子,并使用GM(1,1)模型预测了攀枝花2020、2030年城市建设用地需求量。基于预测结果,讨论了2020、2030年城市建设用地规划布局结构,同时提出用地管理的相关建议。本文主要结论有:(1)分析了攀枝花城市建设用地现状,发现城市建设用地矛盾主要表现在以下方面:(1)城市空间结构布局分散,城市各功能分区之间距离过远,城市中心不突出,城市功能不能得到充分体现;(2)工业用地与居住用地混杂、交叉,造成城市在用地布局、居住环境、设施配套等方面的困难;(3)城市建设用地空间拓展不足,供需矛盾较为显着;(4)工业用地比重偏大,是导致城市环境问题更趋严重,以及是城市建设用地紧张的局面加剧的主要因素。(2)采用灰色关联度法分析了对攀枝花城市建设用地需求量相关的12个影响因素,发现人口、经济因素与攀枝花市城市建设用地关联度较高,其中固定资产投资额、城市常住人口以及国内生产总值(GDP)三项与攀枝花市区建设用地需求量关联性最高。(3)基于固定资产投资额、城市常住人口以及国内生产总值,以GM(1,1)模型预测攀枝花市城市建设需求量的综合权重,得出攀枝花市2020年城市建设用地量为96.83平方公里,2030年城市建设用地量为117.52平方公里。(4)攀枝花未来城市发展趋势为南向发展,局部向东、西两侧,并可总体概括为:“南扩北限,东西限控”;建议对未来城市用地管理做到如下调整,如合理挖掘现有土地潜力、促进城市建设用地结构的调整以及构建合理的土地管理政策机制。
[Abstract]:China is in the period of rapid development of urbanization, with the social, economic and population changes, the demand for urban construction land is also increasing. Resource-based city, as a city developed with special resource conditions, is now facing or is about to face the plight of resource depletion. How to get out of the dilemma? Urban transformation is the only way to the sustainable development of the city. Because of the typical characteristics of resource-based towns, such as special conditions of land use and difficulty of urban land use, how to solve the problems of new energy utilization and substitution, urban function replacement, urban facilities reconstruction and renewal, urban space, urban culture, etc. The restoration of urban ecology has put forward higher and stricter requirements for the construction land structure and rational utilization and development of resource-based cities. Panzhihua is a typical resource-based city in the west of China. Whether it is the course of urban development and transformation, or the dilemma of sustainable development in the future, Panzhihua will be faced with how to develop the urban construction land reasonably and moderately. How to improve the urban living environment has strong representativeness. Taking Panzhihua City as an example, based on the definition and connotation of urban construction land, combined with relevant historical documents and field investigation, this paper comprehensively analyzes the characteristics of the present situation of construction land in Panzhihua city. The main factors affecting the construction land use in Panzhihua city were extracted by using the grey correlation degree method, and the demand for construction land in Panzhihua 2020 and 2030 was predicted by using GM (1 / 1) model. Based on the prediction results, this paper discusses the layout structure of urban construction land planning in 2020 and 2030, and puts forward some suggestions on land use management. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the present situation of urban construction land in Panzhihua is analyzed, and it is found that the contradiction of urban construction land is mainly manifested in the following aspects: (1) the layout of urban spatial structure is scattered, the distance between the functional districts of the city is too long, and the urban center is not prominent. Urban function can not be fully reflected; (2) industrial land and residential land mixed, cross, resulting in urban land layout, living environment, facilities and other difficulties; (3) urban construction land space expansion, The contradiction between supply and demand is obvious. (4) the large proportion of industrial land leads to more serious urban environmental problems. It is also the main factor to aggravate the tense situation of urban construction land. (2) the paper analyzes 12 factors related to the demand for construction land in Panzhihua city by using the grey correlation degree method, and finds out the population. The correlation between economic factors and urban construction land in Panzhihua is high, among which fixed assets investment, urban resident population and gross domestic product (GDP) have the highest correlation with the demand for construction land in Panzhihua urban area. (3) based on the fixed assets investment, Based on the GM (1 ~ 1) model, the comprehensive weight of the urban construction demand in Panzhihua city is forecasted by the permanent resident population and the gross domestic product (GDP) of Panzhihua city. It is concluded that the amount of land used for urban construction in Panzhihua is 96.83 square kilometers in 2020 and 117.52 square kilometers in 2030. (4) the future urban development trend of Panzhihua is southward, partly eastward and westward, and can be summed up as: "extending the limit from south to north. It is suggested that the future urban land use management should be adjusted as follows, such as tapping the existing land potential rationally, promoting the adjustment of urban construction land structure and constructing a reasonable land management policy mechanism.
【学位授予单位】：成都理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F301.2
本文编号：2210678
[Abstract]:China is in the period of rapid development of urbanization, with the social, economic and population changes, the demand for urban construction land is also increasing. Resource-based city, as a city developed with special resource conditions, is now facing or is about to face the plight of resource depletion. How to get out of the dilemma? Urban transformation is the only way to the sustainable development of the city. Because of the typical characteristics of resource-based towns, such as special conditions of land use and difficulty of urban land use, how to solve the problems of new energy utilization and substitution, urban function replacement, urban facilities reconstruction and renewal, urban space, urban culture, etc. The restoration of urban ecology has put forward higher and stricter requirements for the construction land structure and rational utilization and development of resource-based cities. Panzhihua is a typical resource-based city in the west of China. Whether it is the course of urban development and transformation, or the dilemma of sustainable development in the future, Panzhihua will be faced with how to develop the urban construction land reasonably and moderately. How to improve the urban living environment has strong representativeness. Taking Panzhihua City as an example, based on the definition and connotation of urban construction land, combined with relevant historical documents and field investigation, this paper comprehensively analyzes the characteristics of the present situation of construction land in Panzhihua city. The main factors affecting the construction land use in Panzhihua city were extracted by using the grey correlation degree method, and the demand for construction land in Panzhihua 2020 and 2030 was predicted by using GM (1 / 1) model. Based on the prediction results, this paper discusses the layout structure of urban construction land planning in 2020 and 2030, and puts forward some suggestions on land use management. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the present situation of urban construction land in Panzhihua is analyzed, and it is found that the contradiction of urban construction land is mainly manifested in the following aspects: (1) the layout of urban spatial structure is scattered, the distance between the functional districts of the city is too long, and the urban center is not prominent. Urban function can not be fully reflected; (2) industrial land and residential land mixed, cross, resulting in urban land layout, living environment, facilities and other difficulties; (3) urban construction land space expansion, The contradiction between supply and demand is obvious. (4) the large proportion of industrial land leads to more serious urban environmental problems. It is also the main factor to aggravate the tense situation of urban construction land. (2) the paper analyzes 12 factors related to the demand for construction land in Panzhihua city by using the grey correlation degree method, and finds out the population. The correlation between economic factors and urban construction land in Panzhihua is high, among which fixed assets investment, urban resident population and gross domestic product (GDP) have the highest correlation with the demand for construction land in Panzhihua urban area. (3) based on the fixed assets investment, Based on the GM (1 ~ 1) model, the comprehensive weight of the urban construction demand in Panzhihua city is forecasted by the permanent resident population and the gross domestic product (GDP) of Panzhihua city. It is concluded that the amount of land used for urban construction in Panzhihua is 96.83 square kilometers in 2020 and 117.52 square kilometers in 2030. (4) the future urban development trend of Panzhihua is southward, partly eastward and westward, and can be summed up as: "extending the limit from south to north. It is suggested that the future urban land use management should be adjusted as follows, such as tapping the existing land potential rationally, promoting the adjustment of urban construction land structure and constructing a reasonable land management policy mechanism.
【学位授予单位】：成都理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F301.2
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