基于Markov和CLUE-S模型的克拉玛依市土地利用变化模拟研究
发布时间：2018-08-30 15:46
【摘要】：克拉玛依作为新中国第一个因油而生、因油而兴的都市,其油气开发与油气化工业在我国有着举足轻重的位置。伴随着克拉玛依市人口的增长,经济的发展,城市化进程加快,合理的利用土地,预测土地利用变化对社会和经济发展很有必要。本文懫用Markov模型和CLUE-S模型相结合的方法,对克拉玛依市2025年土地利用变化进行情景模拟。运用克拉玛依市2010年、2015年土地利用年末变更数据作为基础数据,选取驱动因子,模拟得到2015年土地利用模拟图,与2015年土地利用年末变更数据进行对比,通过精度验证,结果发现模拟精度较高。模拟结果说明Markov模型和CLUE-S模型相结合的方法用于中小区域土地利用变化模拟效果较好,可用于模拟2025年克拉玛依市土地利用变化情况。本文主要研究内容与结论如下:(1)对2010年与2015年土地年末变更数据进行重分类,分为六类,根据研究区域特征选取驱动因子,结合使用SPSS与Arc GIS软件,以ROC为评判标准,分析地类之间的驱动因素之间的关联性。(2)采用栅格像元大小为100m×100m的2010年土地利用现状图模拟2015年土地利用现状,采用logistics回归分析模型,选用驱动因子,运用Markov与CLUE-S模型模拟得到2015年数据,并与2015年实际现状数据进行对比,采用Kappa系数验证,精度达到0.816,模拟预测结果较好。(3)用2015年土地利用年末变更库数据模拟2025年克拉玛依市土地利用情况,通过设置参数,得到三种不同状态的转变:(1)按照现状自然增长情景下的模拟,建设用地持续增加,耕地面积逐渐减少,林地、草地面积急剧下降,导致生态环境质量下降,石油项目用过的建设用地抛荒严重,不利于克拉玛依市长久可持续发展。(2)经济发展模式下,建设用地面积增加比例较大,其余地类均减少,林草地面积较少量较大,不利于克拉玛依市生态环境的保护。(3)生态环境保护情景模式下,保障经济发展的同时又要保护生态环境,建设用地面积增长较为缓慢,占用耕地面积减少,林地、草地面积减少幅度降低。三种不同的情景设置,土地利用格局具有显著的空间差异。
[Abstract]:Karamay is the first city born and flourished by oil in New China. Its oil and gas development and oil / gas chemical industry play an important role in our country. With the increase of population, the development of economy, the acceleration of urbanization, the rational use of land and the prediction of land use change are necessary for social and economic development. In this paper, the method of combining Markov model with CLUE-S model is used to simulate the land use change in Karamay in 2025. Using the land use end-year change data of Karamay in 2010 and 2015 as the basic data, selecting the driving factor, simulating the land use simulation map of 2015, comparing with the land use end-year change data of 2015, through the accuracy verification, The results show that the simulation accuracy is high. The simulation results show that the combination of Markov model and CLUE-S model can be used to simulate land use change in small and medium-sized areas and can be used to simulate land use change in Karamay in 2025. The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the land change data of 2010 and 2015 are reclassified and divided into six categories. According to the regional characteristics of the study, the driving factors are selected, combined with SPSS and Arc GIS software, and ROC is taken as the criterion. This paper analyzes the relationship between the driving factors among ground classes. (2) the 2010 land use status map with grid pixel size of 100m 脳 100m is used to simulate the land use status in 2015, and the logistics regression model is used to select the driving factor. The 2015 data are simulated by Markov and CLUE-S model, and compared with the actual data of 2015. The Kappa coefficient is used to verify the results. The precision reaches 0.816, and the result of simulation and prediction is good. (3) the land use situation of Karamay City in 2025 is simulated with the data of land use change database at the end of 2015, and the parameters are set up. Three different changes were obtained: (1) according to the simulation of the current natural growth scenario, the construction land continued to increase, the area of cultivated land gradually decreased, the area of woodland and grassland decreased sharply, which led to the decline of ecological environment quality. The abandoned construction land used in petroleum projects is not conducive to the sustainable development of Karamay for a long time. (2) under the economic development model, the area of construction land increases by a large proportion, the other land types decrease, and the area of forest and grassland is relatively small. It is not conducive to the protection of ecological environment in Karamay City. (3) under the ecological environment protection scenario, the economic development should be protected at the same time, the area of construction land should be increased slowly, the area of cultivated land occupied will be reduced, and the forest land should be protected. The range of grassland area decreased. Three different scenarios, land use patterns have significant spatial differences.
【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F301.2
[Abstract]:Karamay is the first city born and flourished by oil in New China. Its oil and gas development and oil / gas chemical industry play an important role in our country. With the increase of population, the development of economy, the acceleration of urbanization, the rational use of land and the prediction of land use change are necessary for social and economic development. In this paper, the method of combining Markov model with CLUE-S model is used to simulate the land use change in Karamay in 2025. Using the land use end-year change data of Karamay in 2010 and 2015 as the basic data, selecting the driving factor, simulating the land use simulation map of 2015, comparing with the land use end-year change data of 2015, through the accuracy verification, The results show that the simulation accuracy is high. The simulation results show that the combination of Markov model and CLUE-S model can be used to simulate land use change in small and medium-sized areas and can be used to simulate land use change in Karamay in 2025. The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the land change data of 2010 and 2015 are reclassified and divided into six categories. According to the regional characteristics of the study, the driving factors are selected, combined with SPSS and Arc GIS software, and ROC is taken as the criterion. This paper analyzes the relationship between the driving factors among ground classes. (2) the 2010 land use status map with grid pixel size of 100m 脳 100m is used to simulate the land use status in 2015, and the logistics regression model is used to select the driving factor. The 2015 data are simulated by Markov and CLUE-S model, and compared with the actual data of 2015. The Kappa coefficient is used to verify the results. The precision reaches 0.816, and the result of simulation and prediction is good. (3) the land use situation of Karamay City in 2025 is simulated with the data of land use change database at the end of 2015, and the parameters are set up. Three different changes were obtained: (1) according to the simulation of the current natural growth scenario, the construction land continued to increase, the area of cultivated land gradually decreased, the area of woodland and grassland decreased sharply, which led to the decline of ecological environment quality. The abandoned construction land used in petroleum projects is not conducive to the sustainable development of Karamay for a long time. (2) under the economic development model, the area of construction land increases by a large proportion, the other land types decrease, and the area of forest and grassland is relatively small. It is not conducive to the protection of ecological environment in Karamay City. (3) under the ecological environment protection scenario, the economic development should be protected at the same time, the area of construction land should be increased slowly, the area of cultivated land occupied will be reduced, and the forest land should be protected. The range of grassland area decreased. Three different scenarios, land use patterns have significant spatial differences.
【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F301.2
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