中国冬油菜籽供给反应模型及实证分析
发布时间：2018-09-12 17:33
【摘要】：油菜是我国播种面积最大,种植区域分布最广的油料作物,其稳定供给是保障我国食用植物油供给安全的“基础稳定器”。2015年6月国家取消了油菜籽临时收储政策,菜籽价格的断崖式下跌重挫了农民的种植积极性,致使油菜籽播种面积显著下滑。在当前的严峻形势下,构建我国油菜籽供给反应模型,研究油菜籽供给价格弹性及和影响供给的因素就具有重要的现实意义,能为国家稳定油菜籽生产规模、引导油菜产业平稳度过转型“阵痛期”提供思路。此外,由于各类型油菜在生长收获期、竞争作物、品质、成本收益等方面都存在着较大的差异,本文选择了占全国油菜籽总播种面积90%以上的冬油菜进行研究。基于全国冬油菜产区固定农户观测点2013-2016年的动态短面板数据,本文运用Nerlove供给反应模型和差分GMM估计方法测算了我国14个冬油菜产区近4年来的冬油菜籽供给价格弹性,并通过逐步回归的方法考察了油菜籽临时收储政策对冬油菜籽供给的作用机制。研究结果表明:1、冬油菜籽面积的调整相对于自身价格的变动存在一定的时滞性。2、种植成本对我国冬油菜籽面积有负向影响,而机械化水平则对其有正向影响。3、在当前油菜种植净利润大幅亏损的情况下,非农务工收入占总收入比重较高的农户对油菜种植收益的“钝感”抵消了非农生产活动本身对其供给意愿的消极影响。4、油菜籽临时收储政策对冬油菜籽面积的积极影响主要通过政策对收购价格的直接拉动而体现,政策本身设置价格信号、引导农户价格预期的作用并不显著。研究启示如下:打造国产菜籽油品牌、推进低芥酸、健康营养菜籽油的加工,以此拉动国产菜籽市场价格;大力发展油菜种植专业合作社、推进适度规模经营以降低油菜种植成本;推进油菜产业供给侧改革,开发油菜的蜜用、菜用、观光用等附加价值,提升综合效益;攻坚农机品种、农艺衔接不当的问题,整合农机资源,提升机械利用率以推进油菜产业机械化进程。
[Abstract]:Rapeseed is the most widely distributed oil crop in China, and its stable supply is the "basic stabilizer" to ensure the safety of edible vegetable oil supply in China. In June 2015, the state abolished the temporary storage policy of rapeseed. Steep falls in rapeseed prices have dampened farmers' enthusiasm for planting, causing rapeseed planting areas to fall significantly. In the current severe situation, it is of great practical significance to construct a response model of rapeseed supply in China, to study the price elasticity of rapeseed supply and the factors affecting the supply, and to stabilize the scale of rapeseed production for the country. Guide rape industry smoothly through the transformation of "labor pain period" to provide ideas. In addition, the winter rapeseed, which accounts for more than 90% of the total sowing area of rapeseed in China, is studied in this paper because there are great differences in the growth and harvest period, competitive crops, quality, cost and income of all types of rapeseed. Based on the dynamic short panel data of fixed farmer observation points in winter rape production areas in China from 2013 to 2016, the price elasticity of winter rapeseed supply in 14 winter rapeseed production areas in China in the past 4 years was calculated by using Nerlove supply response model and differential GMM estimation method. The mechanism of rapeseed temporary storage policy on winter rapeseed supply was investigated by stepwise regression method. The results show that the adjustment of winter rapeseed area has a delay of 0.2, and the planting cost has a negative effect on the winter rapeseed area in China. The level of mechanization has a positive effect on it. The "bluntness" of non-farm workers' income as a proportion of total income to rapeseed production offsets the negative effect of non-agricultural production itself on their willingness to supply. 4. The accumulation of rapeseed area in winter by the temporary storage policy of rapeseed The extreme influence is mainly reflected by the direct pull of the policy on the purchase price. The policy itself sets the price signal, the guidance farmer price anticipates the function is not remarkable. The inspiration of the research is as follows: to build a brand of domestic rapeseed oil, to promote the processing of low erucic acid and healthy nutritious rapeseed oil, and to boost the market price of domestic rapeseed oil; to vigorously develop the specialized cooperative of rapeseed cultivation, To promote moderate scale operation to reduce rape planting costs; to promote the supply-side reform of the rape industry, to develop the additional value of rape for honey, vegetable and sightseeing, and to enhance comprehensive benefits; and to tackle the problem of improper convergence of agricultural machinery varieties and agronomy. Integrate agricultural machinery resources, improve the utilization rate of machinery to promote the mechanization process of rape industry.
【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.7
本文编号：2239750
[Abstract]:Rapeseed is the most widely distributed oil crop in China, and its stable supply is the "basic stabilizer" to ensure the safety of edible vegetable oil supply in China. In June 2015, the state abolished the temporary storage policy of rapeseed. Steep falls in rapeseed prices have dampened farmers' enthusiasm for planting, causing rapeseed planting areas to fall significantly. In the current severe situation, it is of great practical significance to construct a response model of rapeseed supply in China, to study the price elasticity of rapeseed supply and the factors affecting the supply, and to stabilize the scale of rapeseed production for the country. Guide rape industry smoothly through the transformation of "labor pain period" to provide ideas. In addition, the winter rapeseed, which accounts for more than 90% of the total sowing area of rapeseed in China, is studied in this paper because there are great differences in the growth and harvest period, competitive crops, quality, cost and income of all types of rapeseed. Based on the dynamic short panel data of fixed farmer observation points in winter rape production areas in China from 2013 to 2016, the price elasticity of winter rapeseed supply in 14 winter rapeseed production areas in China in the past 4 years was calculated by using Nerlove supply response model and differential GMM estimation method. The mechanism of rapeseed temporary storage policy on winter rapeseed supply was investigated by stepwise regression method. The results show that the adjustment of winter rapeseed area has a delay of 0.2, and the planting cost has a negative effect on the winter rapeseed area in China. The level of mechanization has a positive effect on it. The "bluntness" of non-farm workers' income as a proportion of total income to rapeseed production offsets the negative effect of non-agricultural production itself on their willingness to supply. 4. The accumulation of rapeseed area in winter by the temporary storage policy of rapeseed The extreme influence is mainly reflected by the direct pull of the policy on the purchase price. The policy itself sets the price signal, the guidance farmer price anticipates the function is not remarkable. The inspiration of the research is as follows: to build a brand of domestic rapeseed oil, to promote the processing of low erucic acid and healthy nutritious rapeseed oil, and to boost the market price of domestic rapeseed oil; to vigorously develop the specialized cooperative of rapeseed cultivation, To promote moderate scale operation to reduce rape planting costs; to promote the supply-side reform of the rape industry, to develop the additional value of rape for honey, vegetable and sightseeing, and to enhance comprehensive benefits; and to tackle the problem of improper convergence of agricultural machinery varieties and agronomy. Integrate agricultural machinery resources, improve the utilization rate of machinery to promote the mechanization process of rape industry.
【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.7
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