云南省菜籽油自给率研究

发布时间：2018-09-17 10:15

【摘要】：云南省作为传统菜籽油主消费区的消费大省之一,菜籽油消费量占比食用植物油80%左右,是全省第一大食用油源。然而云南省目前食用植物油自给率不足40%,菜籽油自给率仅45%左右,凸显出全省食用油供给安全的严峻形势。全省菜籽油的供给直接影响到食用油供给安全,关乎全省近4700万人口的“油瓶子”安全。基于以上现实背景,本文首先试图对云南省过去近十年油菜种植面积、单产、油菜籽产量及菜籽油供需状况进行分析和总结,研究表明目前云南省菜籽油供需形势处于紧张状态,菜籽油自给率仅为45%左右,菜籽油产不足需,供需缺口大,消费量是供给量的2倍。其次本文对影响云南省菜籽油自给率的因素进行了分析,研究发现造成菜籽油自给率低下的主要因素是:1.油菜籽总产量低,不能满足消费需求;2.人口总量增加及城镇化速度加快;3.人们生活水平的提高和居民消费观念的改变。然后以平均发展速度为指标用Excel工具对2014~2020年云南省菜籽油供给量进行预测,应用Logistic人口阻滞增长模型对2014~2020年云南省人口进行预测,进而对此阶段的菜籽油消费量进行预测,从而测算出2014~2020年云南省菜籽油的自给率。测算结果表明,云南省未来几年菜籽油自给率较当前有所改善,2020年自给率可达60%左右。最后从六个方面提出了提升云南省菜籽油自给率的对策建议。本文的主要研究结论:2000~2013年云南省菜籽油自给率总体上是呈上升趋势,但增长缓慢,菜籽油供给形势不容乐观,消费量是供给量的2倍,自给率仅45%左右;对菜籽油自给率影响最大是总人口的增加、城镇化速度的加快和居民消费观念的改变等因素;经预测分析,2014~2020年云南省菜籽油自给率虽然较目前有所改善,但依旧不高,至2020年菜籽油自给率仅接近60%。
[Abstract]:As one of the major consuming provinces of traditional rapeseed oil, Yunnan province accounts for about 80% of the consumption of edible vegetable oil and is the largest edible oil source in the province. However, the self-sufficiency rate of edible vegetable oil in Yunnan Province is less than 40% and rapeseed oil self-sufficiency rate is only about 45% at present, which highlights the grim situation of edible oil supply security in Yunnan Province. The supply of rapeseed oil directly affects the safety of edible oil supply, and relates to the safety of oil bottles of nearly 47 million people in the province. Based on the above realistic background, this paper first attempts to analyze and summarize the rape planting area, yield per unit yield, rapeseed yield and supply and demand of rapeseed oil in Yunnan Province in the past ten years. The research shows that the supply and demand situation of rapeseed oil in Yunnan Province is in a tense state at present, the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil is only about 45%, the production of rapeseed oil is insufficient, the gap between supply and demand is large, and the consumption is twice as large as the supply quantity. Secondly, this paper analyzes the factors affecting the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil in Yunnan Province, and finds that the main factor that causes the low self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil is: 1. The total output of rapeseed is low and can not meet the consumption demand. The total population increase and the speed of urbanization accelerates 3. 3%. The improvement of people's living standard and the change of people's consumption concept. Then the average development rate is used to predict the supply of rapeseed oil in Yunnan Province from 2014 to 2020 with Excel tool, and the population of Yunnan Province is forecasted by using Logistic population block growth model, and then the consumption of rapeseed oil in this stage is forecasted. Therefore, the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil in Yunnan Province from 2014 to 2020 was calculated. The results show that the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil in Yunnan Province in the next few years is better than that at present, and the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil can reach about 60% in 2020. Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions to improve the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil in Yunnan province are put forward from six aspects. The main conclusion of this paper is that the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil in Yunnan Province is on the whole rising from 2000 to 2013, but the growth is slow, the situation of rapeseed oil supply is not optimistic, the consumption is twice as much as the supply quantity, and the self-sufficiency rate is only about 45%. The greatest influence on the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil is the increase of the total population, the acceleration of urbanization and the change of residents' consumption concept, etc. The self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil in Yunnan Province is still not high, although the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil in Yunnan Province has improved from 2014-2020. By 2020, the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil is only close to 60%.
【学位授予单位】：云南农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F326.12

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