农地流转交易市场的仿真模拟及政策响应研究

发布时间：2018-10-26 12:17

【摘要】：随着我国社会经济的快速发展,农业规模化、现代化以及新型城镇化进程的加快,加之大量农村劳动力转移,我国的农地流转交易市场得以快速发展。为进一步加快农地经营权流转交易市场建设、完善农地承包经营权,从2008年到2017年连续10年的中央一号文件都对农地流转作了相关指导和部署。与此同时,农地经营权在实际流转过程中所存在的流转价格不合理、流转过程繁琐、流转市场监管不足等问题严重阻碍了农地经营权流转市场的进一步完善。如何解决农地经营权流转交易市场中存在的问题,分析农地经营权流转的主要因素并以此为基础提出相应措施对策成为当前主要研究方向,具有重要现实意义。在此背景下,本文通过对当前农地流转相关研究成果的总结分析,筛选出农地流转交易市场的主要影响因素,并借鉴不同领域物权交易的研究方法,以芜湖市四县、四区实地调研问卷为数据来源,借助统计分析软件,对调研数据进行描述性统计以了解当前农地流转交易市场现状;同时结合多智能体系统,从农地经营权流转过程中流转交易双方入手,分析转出方与转入方的流转行为特征,以此为基础建立农地经营权流转交易市场仿真模型,从动态角度进一步预测外部政策环境对流转市场的作用效果,分析对比不同政策环境下流转市场可能产生的变化。最后根据不同情境下的模型仿真结论,提出相关针对性政策响应措施,为促进农地流转交易市场的完善和我国农业产业可持续发展提供借鉴参考。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's social economy, agricultural scale, modernization and new urbanization process, coupled with a large number of rural labor transfer, the transaction market of agricultural land circulation in China has been developed rapidly. In order to further accelerate the construction of the transaction market of farmland management right and perfect the farmland contract management right, the first document of the Central Committee from 2008 to 2017 has made the related instruction and arrangement to the farmland circulation. At the same time, the circulation price of farmland management right in the actual circulation process is unreasonable, the circulation process is cumbersome, the circulation market supervision is insufficient and so on, which seriously hinders the further improvement of the farmland management right transfer market. How to solve the problems existing in the transaction market of farmland management right, analyze the main factors of farmland management right circulation, and put forward corresponding countermeasures on this basis has become the main research direction at present, which has important practical significance. Under this background, this article through the summary analysis to the current farmland circulation correlation research result, screens out the farmland circulation transaction market main influence factor, and draws lessons from the different domain real right transaction research method, in Wuhu four counties, The questionnaire of field investigation in the four regions is the source of data, with the help of the statistical analysis software, the descriptive statistics of the survey data are carried out to understand the current situation of the agricultural land circulation transaction market. At the same time, combining with the multi-agent system, starting with the two sides of the circulation and transaction in the process of farmland management right transfer, this paper analyzes the characteristics of the transfer behavior of the transferor and the transferee, and establishes the market simulation model of the farmland management right circulation transaction based on this model. From the dynamic point of view, this paper further predicts the effect of external policy environment on the circulation market, and analyzes and compares the possible changes of the circulation market under different policy environments. Finally, according to the model simulation results under different circumstances, the relevant policy response measures are put forward, which can provide a reference for the improvement of the agricultural land circulation transaction market and the sustainable development of agricultural industry in China.
【学位授予单位】：安徽师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F321.1

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