种质创新、灌溉与玉米稳产研究——兼论中国玉米生产“靠天吃饭”的局面是否有所改观

发布时间：2018-10-26 14:34

【摘要】：气候变化背景下中国玉米稳产的农业适应性策略研究,对于确保粮食安全和优化农业资源配置具有重要的现实意义。本文以玉米为例,对中国农业生产是否"靠天吃饭"这个老话题给予了一种新的检验。通过2004-2014年玉米主产区12个省(自治区)166个地级市(区、盟、自治州)的统计数据,研究发现玉米种质创新和灌溉条件改善作为减缓气候变化不利影响的适应性策略对稳定玉米产量具有重要的促进作用,而干旱对玉米单位面积产量具有显著负向影响。基于玉米种质创新、灌溉条件和干旱指数的联合检验结果表明,2004-2014年中国玉米生产"靠天吃饭"的局面已有所改观。然而,支撑玉米有效应对干旱的灌溉手段是不断扩张的机井数量,这对于农业灌溉水资源短缺的华北和西北地区,过度开采地下水资源,将加重粮食生产的生态环境脆弱性和安全性风险。"十三五"时期,在平衡粮食生产和环境资源的双目标时,有必要缩减农业灌溉水资源负荷过重地区的粮食生产任务,并就这一问题给予相关的科研论证。
[Abstract]:Under the background of climate change, the study on the agricultural adaptability strategy of stable yield of maize in China has important practical significance for ensuring food security and optimizing the allocation of agricultural resources. Taking corn as an example, this paper gives a new test to the old topic of whether China's agricultural production depends on heaven to eat. According to the statistics of 166 prefectural municipalities (districts, leagues, autonomous prefectures) of 12 provinces (autonomous regions) in the major maize producing regions from 2004 to 2014, It was found that maize germplasm innovation and irrigation condition improvement as adaptive strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change played an important role in stabilizing maize yield, while drought had a significant negative effect on maize yield per unit area. Based on maize germplasm innovation, irrigation conditions and drought index, the results show that the situation of maize production in China has improved from 2004 to 2014. However, the irrigation tools that support corn's ability to cope effectively with drought are the ever-expanding number of machine wells, which overexploit groundwater resources in North and Northwest China, where agricultural irrigation water resources are scarce. It will increase the ecological vulnerability and safety risk of grain production. " In the period of the 13th Five-Year Plan, it is necessary to reduce the task of grain production in areas with overloaded agricultural irrigation water resources when balancing the two goals of grain production and environmental resources, and to give relevant scientific research and argumentation on this issue.
【作者单位】：安庆师范大学经济与管理学院;南京农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：农业部软科学项目(2014102) 国家自然科学基金项目(71473121) 国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD160)~~
【分类号】：F323.213;F323.3;F326.11

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