福建省粮食需求量预测研究

发布时间：2018-11-21 18:58

【摘要】：为了实现资源的效用最大化、提供福建省粮食安全新的数据支持,分析了2003—2012年福建省粮食消费的特点,预测未来年份的粮食需求量。结果表明:第一,福建省粮食消费总量呈现递增的趋势,粮食消费结构也有较大幅度调整;第二,人均粮食消费量增加了44 kg,人均口粮消费量减少了12 kg,人均饲料粮消费量增加了55 kg,饲料用粮大幅增加,是导致福建省人均粮食消费量大幅增长的主要原因;第三,比较不同经济发展水平下和平衡膳食模式下的人均粮食需求量,发现差异明显,实际人均消费量远高于合理人均需求量,不合理的食物消费结构造成了不合理的粮食浪费现象;第四,按照高、中、低3种不同的人均粮食需求量分别预测全省的粮食需求量,基于平衡膳食模式的粮食需求量能较真实地反映福建省的实际需求量,即2020、2025年全省粮食需求量分别为1222万t、1243万t。
[Abstract]:In order to maximize the utility of resources and provide new data support for food security in Fujian Province, the characteristics of grain consumption in Fujian Province from 2003 to 2012 were analyzed and the grain demand in future years was predicted. The results show that: first, the total grain consumption in Fujian Province shows an increasing trend, and the structure of grain consumption is also adjusted by a large margin; Second, the per capita grain consumption increased by 44 kg, the per capita ration consumption decreased by 12 kg, the per capita feed consumption increased significantly by 55 kg, which was the main reason for the increase of the per capita grain consumption in Fujian Province. Third, comparing the food demand per capita under different levels of economic development and the balanced diet model, we find that the difference is obvious, and the actual per capita consumption is far higher than the reasonable per capita demand. Unreasonable food consumption structure caused unreasonable food waste; Fourthly, according to the high, medium and low per capita grain demand, the grain demand of the whole province is predicted separately, and the grain demand based on the balanced diet model can more truly reflect the actual demand in Fujian Province. In other words, the grain demand of the province was 12.22 million t and 12.43 million t respectively in 2020,2025.
【作者单位】：福建省农业区划研究所;
【基金】：2014年福建省属公益类科研院所基本科研专项“土地规模经营问题与对策研究”(2014R1027-2)
【分类号】：F326.11

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