中亚五国农业投资环境组合评价研究

发布时间：2018-11-23 07:57

【摘要】：入世之后,农业国际化成为了中国农业发展的必然选择。新常态下,要实现农业可持续发展,提高农业现代化水平,就必须发展外向型农业。中亚五国农业自然资源丰富,在世界上享有“资源之乡”的美誉。而中国在农业科技、管理和资金方面具有相对优势,中国与中亚五国农业互补性强,合作潜力巨大,且丝绸之路经济带建设和地缘优势等也为中国农业“走出去”进入中亚国家开展投资活动提供良好机遇。中亚被认为是丝绸之路经济带沿线最具有投资潜力的地区,对其农业投资环境的科学、客观评价将对中国农业“走出去”具有重要指导意义。本研究首先基于国内外有关中亚地区和投资环境评价的现有研究成果,梳理相关理论及评价方法,发现现有文献在国际农业投资环境评价方法的选择上,多采用定性评价或单一评价方法,对组合评价方法的使用相对很少。其次从政治环境、经济发展环境、基础设施、社会与文化环境、法律环境、农业资源条件以及农产品的生产、消费状况七个方面,较为全面地分析中亚五国农业投资环境的现状。最后,从政治与法律、经济与对外开放、基础设施与公共服务、农业生产环境4个方面构建了包含27项指标的综合评价指标体系,并在组合评价方法应用原理分析基础上,采用改进模糊Borda法对中亚五国农业投资环境进行组合评价分析。结果如下:从评价方法上看,采用的改进模糊Borda法既考虑评价值大小也结合评价序的相对秩次,得到的组合评价结果相对单一评价结果更为精确。从评价结果上看,经济与对外开放环境、基础设施与公共服务环境、农业生产环境是影响中亚国家农业投资环境的主要方面;空间维度上,哈萨克斯坦农业投资环境相对最好,得分均值最高(254.056),乌兹别克斯坦(131.110)、吉尔吉斯斯坦(107.158)两国次之,塔吉克斯坦(17.673)、土库曼斯坦(15.886)两国最低;时间维度上,哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦三国农业投资环境总体呈趋好态势,而塔吉克斯坦、土库曼斯坦两国农业投资环境较差,处于不稳定状态。
[Abstract]:After China's entry into WTO, agricultural internationalization has become an inevitable choice for China's agricultural development. Under the new normal, to realize the sustainable development of agriculture and improve the level of agricultural modernization, we must develop export-oriented agriculture. The five Central Asian countries are rich in agricultural natural resources and enjoy the reputation of "the land of resources" in the world. On the other hand, China has a comparative advantage in agricultural science and technology, management and capital. China and the five Central Asian countries are highly complementary in agriculture and have great potential for cooperation. The construction of the Silk Road economic belt and its geographical advantages also provide a good opportunity for Chinese agriculture to "go out" and carry out investment activities in Central Asian countries. Central Asia is regarded as the region with the most investment potential along the Silk Road economic belt. The scientific and objective evaluation of its agricultural investment environment will be of great guiding significance to Chinese agriculture "going abroad". Firstly, based on the existing research results of Central Asia and investment environment assessment at home and abroad, this paper combs the relevant theories and evaluation methods, and finds out that the existing literature on the choice of international agricultural investment environment assessment methods. Qualitative evaluation or a single evaluation method is often used, but the combination evaluation method is seldom used. Secondly, from the political environment, the economic development environment, the infrastructure, the social and cultural environment, the legal environment, the agricultural resource conditions and the production and consumption of agricultural products, The present situation of the agricultural investment environment of the five Central Asian countries is analyzed comprehensively. Finally, from the aspects of politics and law, economy and opening to the outside world, infrastructure and public service, agricultural production environment, a comprehensive evaluation index system including 27 indexes is constructed, and the application principle of combined evaluation method is analyzed. An improved fuzzy Borda method is used to evaluate the agricultural investment environment in five Central Asian countries. The results are as follows: from the point of view of the evaluation method, the improved fuzzy Borda method not only considers the evaluation value but also combines the relative rank of the evaluation order, and the combined evaluation result is more accurate than the single evaluation result. From the evaluation results, the economic and opening environment, infrastructure and public service environment, agricultural production environment are the main factors that affect the agricultural investment environment of Central Asian countries. In spatial dimension, Kazakhstan has the best agricultural investment environment, with the highest score (254.056), Uzbekistan (131.110), Kyrgyzstan (107.158) and Tajikistan (17.673). Turkmenistan (15.886) is the lowest; In the time dimension, the agricultural investment environment of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan is in an overall trend of improvement, while that of Tajikistan and Turkmenistan is poor and unstable.
【学位授予单位】：新疆农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F336

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