中国农产品出口东盟影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-11-23 20:23

【摘要】：2001年以来中国对东盟农产品出口额呈现出不断增长、贸易逆差在近年迅速减少的态势,本文基于修正的CMS模型对中国整体和分类农产品出口东盟增长的影响因素进行动态分解分析。结果显示:在第一层次分解中无论是整体还是分类农产品的增长均是竞争效应和结构效应共同作用的结果,其中第一、三类产品以竞争效应为主,第二、四类产品以结构效应为主;在第二层次分解中,竞争效应方面,无论是整体还是分类农产品多数阶段基本上都源于整体竞争效应。结构效应方面,整体农产品源于市场效应和商品效应的共同作用,第一、四类产品市场效应与商品效应的作用在增强,第二类产品增长效应的作用在增强,第三类产品近期源于增长效应。二阶效应方面,无论是整体还是分类在多数增长阶段为负,但其纯二阶效应在第一、二、三类产品上多数增长阶段为正。
[Abstract]:Since 2001, China's exports of agricultural products to ASEAN have been increasing, and the trade deficit has been decreasing rapidly in recent years. Based on the modified CMS model, this paper analyzes the factors affecting the growth of China's agricultural export to ASEAN. The results show that in the first level decomposition, the growth of the whole or classified agricultural products is the result of both competitive effect and structural effect. Four kinds of products are mainly structural effect; In the second level decomposition, most stages of the whole or classified agricultural products come from the overall competitive effect. In terms of structural effect, the whole agricultural product originates from the joint action of market effect and commodity effect. First, the effects of market effect and commodity effect of four kinds of products are strengthened, and the effect of product growth effect of the second kind is strengthened. The third category of products is due to growth effects in the near term. The second order effect is negative in most growth stages, but the pure second order effect is positive in most growth stages on the first, second and third types of products.
【作者单位】：铜仁学院经济管理学院铜仁市文化科技产业创新研究中心;哈尔滨工程大学博士后流动站;铜仁学院研究生院;
【基金】：第61批中国博士后基金项目“中国与东盟农业经贸合作模式优化及共享式增长研究”(2017M613004) 贵州省教育厅人文社科青年项目“‘一带一路’背景下贵州省外向型经济发展研究”(2016qn01) 贵州省本科教学改革工程项目“基于卓越农林人才培养的实践教学模块化改革研究”(2016SJJGXM004) 铜仁学院博士科研启动项目“武陵山连片特困区扶贫开发研究”(trxy DF1404)
【分类号】：F323.7;F752.62

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