中国大米进出口形势及预测分析

发布时间：2018-12-16 04:00

【摘要】：大米作为居民生活主粮之一,其贸易状况直接影响国家粮食安全,基于此本文主要就中国大米进出口形势开展了分析预测,发现:(1)中国大米产量呈连续增长趋势,且国内大米市场需求增长率较低,大米市场消费模式也呈变化趋势;(2)从大米进出口总量上看,中国大米进口量已远超大米出口量,大米贸易逆差形势加剧;进出口品种方面,贸易品种类型渐趋丰富,但依然以大米类贸易品种为主;进口来源国方面,亚洲地区依然是中国主要的大米进口来源地,其中近年来越南已超越泰国成为中国大米进口主要来源地,与此同时巴基斯坦所占比重亦增加明显;(3)大米出口总量与年份数据呈负向关系,但线性关系并不显著,与此同时大米进口量与年份数据则呈显著正向关系,因此预计我国大米贸易逆差将扩大。
[Abstract]:Rice is one of the main grains in the daily life of the residents, and its trade situation directly affects the national food security. Based on this, the paper analyzes and forecasts the situation of rice import and export in China, and finds that: (1) the rice production in China is increasing continuously. And the domestic rice market demand growth rate is low, the rice market consumption pattern also presents the change tendency; (2) in terms of the total amount of rice import and export, China's rice import volume has far exceeded the rice export volume, the situation of rice trade deficit has been aggravated, and the import and export varieties, the types of trade varieties have gradually become rich, but they are still dominated by rice trade varieties; As for the countries of origin, Asia is still the main source of rice imports for China. In recent years, Vietnam has overtaken Thailand as the main source of rice imports from China, and at the same time, the proportion of Pakistan has increased significantly. (3) the total amount of rice exports has a negative relationship with the annual data, but the linear relationship is not significant. Meanwhile, the rice import quantity has a significant positive relationship with the annual data, so it is expected that China's rice trade deficit will expand.
【作者单位】：中南财经政法大学应用经济学博士后流动站;湖北农业科学院农业经济技术研究所;
【基金】：湖北省科技厅软科学项目(2016ADC040) 国家自然科学基金青年项目(71503074) 中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目(2016M602398)
【分类号】：F323.7;F752.61

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