农村劳动力转移对粮食生产的影响研究

发布时间：2018-12-17 21:14

【摘要】：在工业化、城镇化进程中,农村劳动力不断向城市和非农部门转移,务农劳动力减少对我国粮食生产造成一定影响。分析农村劳动力转移与粮食生产方式、粮食产出及生产成本之间的变化关系,探究农村劳动力转出后保障粮食生产的配套政策具有重要意义。论文对现有的理论和文献进行了梳理,应用发展经济学中关于农村劳动力转移的经典理论,对已有研究的内容框架进行了分析。通过实地调研并归纳典型案例,分析了不同发展阶段典型地区农村劳动力转移的特点以及当地粮食生产的变化特征。为宏观、定量把握农村劳动力转移对我国粮食生产的影响,本文搜集整理了1978年—2012年全国31个省区的数据,按主产省和非主产省划分,通过应用模型进行分析,结果表明农村劳动力转移对粮食产出的影响微弱,而起显著影响的因素为播种面积,其次分别为化肥使用量、机械化程度。为分析农村劳动力转移与粮食投入要素之间的变化关系,本文还运用农产品成本收益数据进行了研究。结果表明,农村劳动力转移致使粮食生产中的人工成本上涨,且其占粮食生产成本的比重越来越高,与产出增长相比较,劳动力转移对粮食生产成本的影响更加显著。论文还研究了工业化进程中日本农村劳动力转移,结果表明劳动力快速转移导致日本农户出现分化,兼业农户大量出现,以及粮食播种面积和产量减少,粮食生产地位下降。为保障该国粮食生产,日本不断完善社会化服务,大力普及农业机械,加强教育和培训,并提高粮食价格与农业工资。综合以上研究,本文结论是,农村劳动力转移对粮食生产方式有两方面的影响,积极方面主要表现为促进了土地规模经营和农业社会化服务的发展,但同时导致劳动力数量减少、老龄化问题较为突出;农村劳动力转移对粮食产出并没有太大的影响,但会引起人工成本上涨,这已成为推动粮食生产成本上涨的重要因素。在未来种粮劳动力减少、人工费用上涨的态势下,稳步推进农业生产,提高种粮收益是亟需解决的问题。为此本研究提出了加快适度规模化经营、推进农业机械化、完善社会化服务、加强农村人才队伍建设等政策建议。
[Abstract]:In the process of industrialization and urbanization, the rural labor force is constantly transferred to the urban and non-agricultural sectors, and the reduction of the agricultural labor force has a certain impact on the grain production in China. It is of great significance to analyze the relationship between the transfer of rural labor force and grain production mode, grain output and production cost, and to explore the supporting policies for ensuring grain production after the rural labor force is transferred out. This paper combs the existing theories and literature, and analyzes the content frame of the existing research by applying the classical theory of rural labor force transfer in development economics. Through field investigation and induction of typical cases, this paper analyzes the characteristics of rural labor force transfer and the changing characteristics of local grain production in typical areas of different development stages. In order to quantitatively grasp the impact of rural labor force transfer on grain production in China, this paper collects and collates the data of 31 provinces in China from 1978 to 2012, divides them into main and non-major production provinces, and analyzes them by applying the model. The results showed that the influence of rural labor force transfer on grain output was weak, and the significant influence factors were sowing area, followed by fertilizer usage and mechanization degree. In order to analyze the changing relationship between rural labor force transfer and grain input factors, this paper also uses the data of agricultural products cost and income to study. The results show that labor transfer in rural areas leads to the increase of labor cost in grain production, and its proportion in grain production cost is increasing. Compared with output growth, labor transfer has more significant effect on grain production cost. The paper also studies the transfer of rural labor force in Japan during the process of industrialization. The results show that the rapid transfer of labor force leads to the differentiation of Japanese farmers, the emergence of a large number of part-time farmers, the decrease of grain planting area and yield, and the decline of the status of grain production. In order to ensure the country's grain production, Japan has continuously improved socialized services, vigorously popularized agricultural machinery, strengthened education and training, and raised food prices and agricultural wages. Synthesizing the above research, this paper concludes that the rural labor transfer has two effects on grain production, and the positive aspects are mainly to promote the development of land scale management and agricultural socialized service. But at the same time, the number of labor force is reduced, the aging problem is more prominent; The transfer of rural labor has little effect on grain output, but it will lead to higher labor cost, which has become an important factor in pushing up grain production cost. Under the situation of decreasing labor force and increasing labor cost in the future, it is urgent to solve the problem of promoting agricultural production steadily and increasing the income of grain planting. Therefore, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions, such as speeding up moderate scale management, promoting agricultural mechanization, perfecting socialized service and strengthening the construction of rural talents.
【学位授予单位】：中国农业科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.6;F326.11

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