中国历史时期气候变化影响及其应对的启示*

气候变化的社会影响是当前全球变暖影响研究的一个重要领域。以古鉴今,历史上应对气候变化的经验和教训可以为现代人类应对以全球变暖为突出标志的气候变化挑战提供宝贵的借鉴。总结中国历史气候变化对社会影响研究领域的成果,归纳得到了历史时期气候变化对中国社会发展影响的若干认识及其对适应未来气候变化的启示。主要结论是历史气候变化影响的总体特征是“冷抑暖扬”,但影响与响应存在区域差异；社会经济的衰落与百年尺度的气候由暖转冷呈现同期性,与暖期相伴的社会快速发展会增加社会对资源、环境需求的压力,导致社会脆弱性加大；历史上应对气候变化策略因时、因地、因主体而异；而以政府为主导的主动因地制宜适应是应对气候变化的有效策略。

[1]  Parry M L, Canziani O F, Palutikof J P, et al. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability[M]. Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press, 2007.

[2]  The Compilation Group of the Second National Assessment Report of Climate Change. Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change[M].Beijing: Science Press, 2011.[《第二次气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会.第二次气候变化国家评估报告[M].北京:科学出版社, 2011.]

[3]  Weiss H, Bradley R S. What drives societal collapse?[J].Science, 2001, 291: 609-610.

[4]  Lamb H H. Climate, History and Modern World[M]. London: Routledge, 1995.

[5]  Nunn P, Hunter-Anderson R, Carson M, et al. Times of plenty, times of less: Last-millennium societal disruption in the Pacific basin[J]. Human Ecology, 2007, 35 (4):385-401, doi:10.1007/s10745-006-9090-5.

[6]  Zhang D, Lee H, Wang C, et al. The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2011, 108 (42):17 296-17 301.

[7]  DeMenocal P B. Cultural responses to climate change during the late Holocene[J]. Science, 2001, 292: 667-673.

[8]  Haug G H, Günther D, Peterson L C, et al. Climate and the collapse of Maya civilization[J]. Science, 2003, 299: 1 731-1 735.

[9]  Büntgen U, Tegel W, Nicolussi K, et al. 2500 years of European climate variability and human susceptibility[J]. Science, 2011, 331: 578-582, doi: 10.1126/science.1197175.

[10]  Costanze R, Graumlich L J, Steffen W, et al. Sustainability or collapse: What can we learn from integrating the history of humans and the rest of nature?[J].AMBIO, 2007, 36: 522-527.

[11]  Fang Xiuqi, Ge Quansheng, Zheng Jingyun. Progress and prospect of researcheson impact of environmental changes on Chinese civilization[J]. Journal of Palaeogeography, 2004, 6(1):85-94.[方修琦, 葛全胜, 郑景云.环境演变对中华文明影响研究的进展与展望[J].古地理学报, 2004, 6(1):85-94.]

[12]  IHOPE. Developing An Integrated History and Future of People on Earth (IHOPE): Research Plan (IGBP Report No. 59)[R]. 2010.[2013-11-02].http:∥

[13]  Li Siguang. Civil Warsand Order and Disordercycles of China Since the Warring States Period[Z].Bulletin of the Institute of History and Philology Academia Sinica, 1932, 5: 157-166.[李四光.战国后中国内战的统计和治乱的周期[Z].中央研究院历史语言研究所集刊, 1932, 5: 157-166.]

[14]  Zhang D, Jim C, Lin C, et al. Climate change, social unrest and dynastic transition in ancient China[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2005, 50(2): 137-144.

[15]  Wang Zheng, Li Huaqun, Kong Xiangde, et al. On the impact of climate warming on Chinese agriculture history[J].Progress in Natural Science, 2005, 15(6): 706-713.[王铮, 黎华群, 孔祥德, 等.气候变暖对中国农业影响的历史借鉴[J].自然科学进展, 2005, 15(6): 706-713.]

[16]  Ge Quansheng. The Climate Change in China during the Past Dynasties[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2011.[葛全胜.中国历朝气候变化[M].北京:科学出版社, 2011.]

[17]  Ge Quansheng, Liu Haolong, Zheng Jingyun, et al. The climate change and social development over the last two millennia in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Nature, 2013, 35(1): 9-21.[葛全胜, 刘浩龙, 郑景云, 等.中国过去2000年气候变化与社会发展[J].自然杂志, 2013, 35(1): 9-21.]

[18]  Lee H, Zhang D, Fok L. Temperature, aridity thresholds, and population growth dynamics in China over the last millennium[J]. Climate Research, 2009, 39(2): 131.

[19]  Lee H, Zhang D. A tale of two population crises in recent Chinese history[J]. Climatic Change, 2013, 116 (2): 285-308.

[20]  Zhao Hongjun, Yin Bocheng. China’s climate change towards colder since the 11th century and its dynamic effects on economic development since the Song onward[J].Social Science in China, 2011, (12):68-78.[赵红军, 尹伯成.公元11世纪后的气候变冷对宋以后经济发展的动态影响[J].社会科学, 2011, (12):68-78.]

[21]  Zhao Hongjun.Did climate change affect the social stability of Chinese agrarian economy in the past 2000 years? A positive analysis based on paleo-climatic reconstruction data and historic data[J].China Economic Quarterly, 2012, 11(2): 691-722.[赵红军.气候变化是否影响了我国过去两千年间的农业社会稳定？——一个基于气候变化重建数据及经济发展历史数据的实证研究[J].经济学, 2012, 11(2): 691-722.]

[22]  The Compilation Group of Military History of China. The Chronology of Wars in the Dynasties of China[M]. Beijing: The Press of Liberation Army, 2003.[《中国军事史》编写组.中国历代战争年表[M].北京:解放军出版社, 2003.]

[23]  Peng Xinwei. The Monetary History of China[M].Shanghai:Shanghai People’s Publishing House, 1958.[彭信威.中国货币史[M].上海:上海人民出版社, 1958.]

[24]  Chen Xinhai. The main agricultural area in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River during Southern and Northern Dynasties period[J].Journal of Chinese Historical Geography, 1990, 2:132-159.[陈新海.南北朝时期黄河中下游的主要农业区[J].中国历史地理论丛, 1990, 2:132-159].

[25]  Zhang Piyuan. Climate Changes in China during Historical Times[M]. Ji’nan: Shandong Science & Technology Press, 1996.[张丕远.中国历史气候变化[M].济南:山东科学技术出版社, 1996.]

[26]  Ge Q, Zheng J, Fang X, et al. Temperature changes of winter-half-year in eastern China during the past 2000 years[J]. The Holocene, 2003, 13(6):933-940.

[27]  Ge Q, Liu H, Zheng J, et al. Reconstructing temperature change in Central East China during 601~920 AD[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2010, 55(34):3 944-3 949.

[28]  Zhang D, Zhang J, Lee H, et al. Does climate change affect war frequency? The case of aastern China[M]∥Human Ecology. New York:Springer, 2010:255-272.

[29]  Lee Harry F, Lincoln Fok, Zhang D D. Climatic change and Chinese population growth dynamics over the last millennium[J]. Climatic Change, 2008, 88(2):131-156.

[30]  Fang Xiuqi, Zheng Jingyun, Ge Quansheng. Historical climate change impact-response processes under the framework of food security in China[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2014(in press).[方修琦, 郑景云, 葛全胜. 粮食安全视角下中国历史气候变化影响与响应的过程与机理[J].地理科学, 2014（待刊）.]

[31]  Fang X Q, Xiao L B, Wei Z D. Social impacts of the climatic shift around the turn of the 19th century on the North China Plain[J]. Science China Earth Sciences, 2013, 56(6):1 044-1 058, doi: 10.1007/s11430-012-4487-z.

[32]  Liu Jian, Wang Bin, Cane Mark A, et al. Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing[J].Nature, 2013, 493:656-659, doi:10.1038/nature11784.

[33]  Su Yun, Fang Xiuqi, Yin Jun. Impact of climate change on fluctuations of grain harvests in China from the Western Han Dynasty to the Five Dynasties (206 BC-960 AD)[J]. Science in China (Series D), 2014(in press).

[34]  Man Zhimin. Historical Climate Change in China[M]. Shandong:Shandong Education Press, 2009.[满志敏.中国历史时期气候变化研究[M].山东:山东教育出版社, 2009.]

[35]  Ge Quansheng, Liu Jian, Fang Xiuqi, et al. General characteristics of temperature change and centennial warm periods during the past 2000 years[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2013, 68(5): 579-592.[葛全胜, 刘健, 方修琦, 等.过去2000年冷暖变化的基本特征与主要暖期[J].地理学报, 2013, 68(5): 579-592.]

[36]  Li Zhongming, Zhang Li. The replacement of Ming and Qing Dynasty and its relationship with climate change[J].Academia Bimestris, 2011, (5): 159-163.[李忠明, 张丽.论明清易代与气候变化之关系[J].学海, 2011, (5): 159-163.]

[37]  Fang Xiuqi, Xiao Lingbo.The basis of environmental cognition in ancient China and the characteristics of its relative activities[J].Journal of Shaanxi Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition), 2007, 30(5):26-29.[方修琦, 萧凌波.中国古代土地开发的环境认知基础和相关行为特征[J].陕西师范大学学报:哲学社会科学版, 2007, 30(5):26-29.]

[38]  Xiao L, Fang X, Ye Y. Reclamation and revolt: Social responses in eastern Inner Mongolia to flood/drought-induced refugees from the North China Plain 1644-1911[J].Journal of Arid Environments, 2013, 88:9-16.