农业从业人员人力资本对耕地产出率贡献研究

发布时间：2018-12-28 11:35

【摘要】：本文基于甘肃省各市(州)2001-2014年耕地产出投入要素数据,采用SPSS20.0,改进后的收入模型、卢卡斯溢出模型及基于MATLAB7.0灰色预测GM(1,1)模型分析方法,对甘肃省各市(州)农业从业人员人力资本存量及其对耕地产出贡献率进行定量分析,同时对2015-2020年甘肃省各市(州)耕地产出效率和农业从业人员人力资本存量进行预测。本文经过研究,得出如下结论:⑴对农业从业人员人力资本内涵做出界定。⑵构建农业从业人员人力资本存量模型,并在分析甘肃省各市(州)耕地产出率及其投入要素基础上,对卢卡斯溢出模型进行改进。⑶甘肃省各市(州)2001-2014年农业从业人员人力资本积累总体属于递增趋势,但各市(州)之间的农业从业人员人力资本存量积累存在差异。其中,定西市、陇南市、临夏州和甘南州为我省农业从业人员人力资本存量偏低市(州),分别为20448.88元、20259.98元、21204.88元和24000.50元;庆阳市、平凉市、白银市、天水市为我省农业从业人员人力资本存量较低市,分别为29442.35元、30242.56元、32049.56元、31390.67元;张掖市、武威市、金昌市、兰州市、酒泉市为我省农业从业人员人力资本存量较高市,分别为59747.53元、48572.50元、65546.34元、55312.94、81269.63元;嘉峪关市的农业从业人员人力资本存量为109204.15元,是我省农业从业人员人力资本存量偏高市。⑷农业从业人员人力资本这一投入要素对耕地产出效率拥有较高的贡献率和影响率。由于各市(州)的耕地资源禀赋及现代农业经济生产发展存在不同,各市(州)之间农业从业人员人力资本对耕地产出率的贡献率依然存在差异。其中,定西市、陇南市、临夏州和甘南州的农业从业人员人力资本对其耕地产出效率的贡献率偏低;庆阳市、平凉市、白银市和天水市的农业从业人员人力资本的贡献率较低;张掖市、武威市、金昌市、兰州市、酒泉市的农业从业人员人力资本的贡献率较高;嘉峪关市的农业从业人员人力资本贡献率偏高。⑸对2015-2020年耕地产出率预测结果分析可知:白银市、定西市和甘南州的耕地产出效率增长缓慢;平凉市、庆阳市、陇南市、临夏州的耕地产出效率增长较缓慢;张掖市、武威市、天水市、金昌市、酒泉市和兰州市的耕地产出效率增长较快;嘉峪关市的耕地产出效率增长最快;对2015-2020年农业从业人员人力资本存量预测结果分析可知:定西市、陇南市、临夏州和甘南州的农业从业人员人力资本增长缓慢;庆阳市、平凉市、白银市、天水市的农业从业人员人力资本增长较缓慢;张掖市、武威市、金昌市、兰州市、酒泉市的农业从业人员人力资本增长较快;嘉峪关市的农业从业人员人力资本增长最快。⑹本文通过将农业从业人员的人力资本作为研究提高耕地产出率的一种投入要素,并进行检验验证,得出其对提高耕地产出率有着极大的贡献率和影响率,故我认为建立切实能够提高耕地产出率的农业从业人员的人力资本投资机制,是保障粮食安全、增加耕地产出率的重大意义之所在。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of the input factors of the cultivated land output from 2001 to 2014 in the cities of Gansu province (state), the paper uses the SPSS10.0, the improved income model, the Lucas overflow model and the analysis method of the GM (1,1) model based on the MATLAB7.0 gray prediction. This paper makes a quantitative analysis of the human capital stock and the contribution rate of the cultivated land output to the agricultural workers in various cities of Gansu province, and forecasts the output efficiency of the cultivated land and the human capital stock of the agricultural workers in the counties of Gansu Province by the period of 2015 to 2020. In this paper, the following conclusions are drawn: the definition of the connotation of human capital of agricultural practitioners is given. Based on the analysis of the yield and the input factors of the cultivated land in various cities of Gansu province, the model of Lucas's overflow is improved. The accumulation of human capital of agricultural workers in various cities (states) of Gansu Province in 2001-2014 is an increasing trend, but there is a difference in the accumulation of human capital stock among the agricultural workers in each city (state). Among them, in the cities of Dingxi, Longnan, Linxia and Ganzhou, the human capital stock of the agricultural workers in our province is low (state), which is 20448. 88 yuan, 20259. 98 yuan, 21204. 88 yuan and 244,000 yuan. The city of Qingyang, Pingliang, Baiyin and Tianshui is the lower city of the human capital stock of the agricultural workers in our province. It is 29442. 35 yuan, 30242. 56 yuan, 32049. 56 yuan, 31390. 67 yuan, Zhangye City, Wuwei City, Jinchang City, Lanzhou City, Jiuquan City is the high city of the human capital of the agricultural workers in our province, it is 59747.53 yuan, 48572. 50 yuan, 65546. 34 yuan, 55312. 94, 81269. 63 yuan, and the human capital stock of the agricultural workers in Jiayuan City is 1094.15 yuan, It is the high-level city of human capital of the agricultural practitioners in our province. The input factors of human capital of agricultural workers in China have higher contribution rate and impact rate to the efficiency of cultivated land output. The contribution rate of the human capital to the yield of the cultivated land in the agricultural workers among the cities (states) is still different due to the different natural resources of the cultivated land and the development of the modern agricultural economy in each city (state). In the cities of Dingxi, Longnan, Linxia and Ganzhou, the contribution rate of human capital to the output of cultivated land is low; the contribution rate of human capital of agricultural workers in Qingyang City, Pingliang City, Baiyin City and Tianshui City is lower; Zhangye City, Wuwei City and Jinchang City, In Lanzhou, the contribution rate of human capital of agricultural workers in Jiuquan City is higher, and the contribution rate of human capital of agriculture in Jiayuan City is higher. According to the analysis of the forecast results of the cultivated land in 2015-2020, the output efficiency of the cultivated land in the city of Baiyin, Dingxi and Ganzhou is slow; the output efficiency of the cultivated land in the city of Pingliang, Qingyang, Longnan and Linxia is slow; Zhangye City, Wuwei City, Tianshui City and Jinchang City, The output efficiency of the cultivated land in Jiuquan City and Lanzhou is relatively fast, and the output efficiency of the cultivated land in Jiayuan is the fastest, and it can be found that the human capital of agriculture in the city of Dingxi, Longnan, Linxia and Gangnan is slow. In Qingyang City, Pingliang City, Baiyin City, Tianshui City, the human capital growth of agricultural workers is relatively slow; in Zhangye, Wuwei, Jinchang, Lanzhou, Jiuquan City, the human capital of agricultural workers is growing faster; and the human capital of agriculture in Jiayuan is the fastest. In this paper, by using the human capital of the agricultural practitioner as an input factor for the study of increasing the yield of the cultivated land, and the verification is carried out, it is concluded that it has a great contribution to the improvement of the yield of the cultivated land and the influence rate. Therefore, I think it is of great significance to establish the human capital investment mechanism of the agricultural workers who can improve the yield of the cultivated land, which is of great significance to guarantee the food security and increase the yield of the cultivated land.
【学位授予单位】：甘肃农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.5

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