新常态下中国农业经济增长的三重冲击及其治理路径——基于1981—2013年中国农业全要素生产率的测算

发布时间：2019-03-22 18:27

【摘要】：该文基于对1981—2013年中国农业全要素生产率的测算,发现2007年以后,中国农业的固定资本增长率高企,而农业劳动力和全要素(TFP)增长率却进入下降通道,中国农业经济增长乏力,农业固定资本增长对农业TFP的挤出效应明显。原因是中国经济发展进入新常态后,资源环境的刚性约束、大规模农业投资遭遇资本报酬递减以及人口红利减少导致的农村"未富先老"和"未优先空"现象对中国农业经济的增长带来了三重冲击。并且这种三重冲击均属于供给冲击,意味着新常态下中国农业经济的增长速度下行已经无法避免。不过,在当前,政府不应急于制定相关的产业政策,而应着眼于夯实农业供给侧结构改革的制度基础。
[Abstract]:Based on the calculation of China's agricultural total factor productivity from 1981 to 2013, this paper finds that after 2007, the fixed capital growth rate of China's agriculture is high, while the growth rate of agricultural labor force and total factor (TFP) has entered the decline channel. China's agricultural economic growth is weak, agricultural fixed capital growth on agricultural TFP crowding out effect is obvious. The reason is the rigid restriction of resources and environment after China's economic development has entered the new normal. Large-scale agricultural investment suffers from the decline of capital reward and the decrease of population dividend, which results in the triple impact on the growth of China's agricultural economy due to the phenomenon of "not getting rich before getting old" and "not giving priority to empty" in rural areas. And this triple shock belongs to the supply shock, which means that the growth rate of China's agricultural economy in the new normal can not be avoided. At present, however, the government should not rush to formulate relevant industrial policies, but should focus on strengthening the institutional basis of agricultural supply-side structural reform.
【作者单位】：成都理工大学马克思主义学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金课题“中国特色社会主义‘新三农’协同发展研究”(批准文号:15BKS038) 四川省科技厅软科学研究项目“城乡一体化视域下四川省农村土地节约集约利用研究”(批准文号:2015ZR0116)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F323

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