北京市农产品冷链物流需求预测研究

发布时间：2019-05-15 17:54

【摘要】：近年来,北京市的地区生产总值不断升高,经济快速增长,居民收入以及消费水平的不断地提高,从2009年的22023亿元上涨到2014年的36057亿元,上涨的幅度接近63.7%。北京市经济的良好发展态势和居民消费水平的提高使得北京市生鲜农产品物流的需求量不断呈现上升趋势,北京农产品冷链物流总额由2009年的237.1亿元上涨到2013年的316.8亿元。尽管北京市生鲜农产品的冷链物流率在逐年提高,由2009的4.1%上升至2011年的6.6%,生鲜农产品市场一定程度上仍然存在供需不平衡的现象。北京市农产品冷链物流起步较晚,规模体系尚不完善,决策缺少必要定量研究数据支撑,为确保北京市生鲜农产品物流行业的快速协调发展,物流资源合理有效的配置以及生鲜农产品供需的协调平衡,亟需对北京市生鲜农产品冷链物流展开需求预测研究。本文从北京市农产品冷链物流切入,对北京市农产品冷链物流的需求总额实施预测,并对其未来一段时间的发展趋势进行定量的分析与探讨,从而促进该行业的健康蓬勃发展。具体来讲,首先,详细论述了农产品冷链物流相关的知识体系,包括：农产品冷链物流的内涵和特点；物流需求预测理论和方法,为本研究打下坚实的理论基础；其次,分析论述北京市农产品冷链物流的发展现状和需求特点,并构建农产品冷链物流需求预测的指标体系；在此基础上,借助基于主成分回归及BP神经网络的组合模型对北京市农产品冷链物流需求展开分析研究。最后,本文针对预测结果提出促进北京市农产品冷链物流行业健康协调发展的建议以及措施。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Beijing has been rising, the economy is growing rapidly, and the income and consumption level of residents have been rising from 2.2023 trillion yuan in 2009 to 3.6057 trillion yuan in 2014, an increase of nearly 63.7 percent. With the good development of Beijing's economy and the improvement of residents' consumption level, the demand for fresh agricultural products logistics in Beijing is on the rise. The total amount of cold chain logistics of agricultural products in Beijing rose from 23.71 billion yuan in 2009 to 31.68 billion yuan in 2013. Although the cold chain logistics rate of fresh agricultural products in Beijing is increasing year by year, from 4.1% in 2009 to 6.6% in 2011, there is still an imbalance between supply and demand in fresh agricultural products market to a certain extent. The cold chain logistics of agricultural products in Beijing started late, the scale system is not perfect, and the decision-making is lack of necessary quantitative research data support. In order to ensure the rapid and coordinated development of fresh agricultural products logistics industry in Beijing, With the rational and effective allocation of logistics resources and the coordination and balance of supply and demand of fresh agricultural products, it is urgent to carry out demand forecasting research on cold chain logistics of fresh agricultural products in Beijing. Based on the cold chain logistics of agricultural products in Beijing, this paper forecasts the total demand of cold chain logistics of agricultural products in Beijing, and makes a quantitative analysis and discussion on the development trend of cold chain logistics of agricultural products in the future, so as to promote the healthy and vigorous development of the industry. Specifically, first of all, the knowledge system related to cold chain logistics of agricultural products is discussed in detail, including: the connotation and characteristics of cold chain logistics of agricultural products, the theory and method of logistics demand forecasting, which lays a solid theoretical foundation for this study. Secondly, the development status and demand characteristics of cold chain logistics of agricultural products in Beijing are analyzed and discussed, and the index system of forecasting the demand of cold chain logistics of agricultural products is constructed. On this basis, the demand of cold chain logistics of agricultural products in Beijing is analyzed and studied with the help of the combination model based on principal component regression and BP neural network. Finally, according to the prediction results, this paper puts forward some suggestions and measures to promote the healthy and coordinated development of the cold chain logistics industry of agricultural products in Beijing.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F326.6

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