基于Nerlove模型的我国大豆供给反应实证分析

发布时间：2019-06-10 07:01

【摘要】：为了全面了解影响我国大豆供给的主要因素,基于2001-2014年全国10个大豆主产区大豆生产和价格的面板数据,同时引入替代作物收益、农业政策及时间趋势虚拟变量,运用Nerlove模型对我国大豆的供给反应进行了实证分析。结果表明:我国大豆的播种面积受滞后一期大豆播种面积和滞后一期大豆单价的显著正向影响,受滞后一期替代作物单位面积纯收益的显著负向影响;2008年出台的大豆临时收储政策这一变量的回归系数没有通过显著性检验,因此不能断定大豆临时收储政策对我国大豆的供给有作用;大豆种植户在决策时主要受以往多期大豆价格的影响;我国大豆供给对价格变化的反应并不敏感,短期价格弹性较小,长期有所提升,存在滞后性。最后提出了保障我国大豆供给的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In order to fully understand the main factors affecting soybean supply in China, based on the panel data of soybean production and price in 10 major soybean producing areas in China from 2001 to 2014, the virtual variables of alternative crop income, agricultural policy and time trend were introduced. The Nerlove model was used to analyze the supply response of soybean in China. The results showed that the sown area of soybean in China was significantly positively affected by the sowing area of soybean in the first stage of lag and the unit price of soybean in the first stage of lag, and negatively affected by the net income per unit area of substitute crop in the first stage of lag. The regression coefficient of the variable of temporary soybean collection and storage policy issued in 2008 did not pass the significant test, so it can not be concluded that the temporary soybean collection and storage policy plays an important role in the supply of soybean in China. Soybean growers are mainly affected by the price of soybean in the past, the response of soybean supply to price change is not sensitive, the short-term price elasticity is small, the long-term improvement, there is a lag. Finally, the policy suggestions to ensure the supply of soybeans in China are put forward.
【作者单位】：中国农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社科基金项目“我国大豆产业纵向关联价格传递问题研究:基于跨国市场力量视角”(11YJC790104)
【分类号】：F326.12

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