新疆粮食安全评价及影响因素研究

发布时间：2019-07-05 12:22

【摘要】：粮食安全乃民生之本,实现粮食自给自足,才能保障社会经济稳步发展,进而能够立足于国内市场,在复杂多变的国际形势中站稳脚跟。粮食安全问题一直是保证国家社会安定的基石,是当下需要面临的三大经济安全中的首要问题,决定着国家能否自立、人民能否自强、社会能否稳定、经济能否发展。目前,新疆正处在粮食提高产能的关键时期,面临着重大历史性机遇,土地资源丰富决定了其巨大的粮食生产潜力,是最具有粮食增产空间的省区,国家欲把新疆打造成全国粮食后备基地,充分发挥其丰富土地资源的优势,确保十三亿人的粮食安全长久持续地得到保障。新疆粮食安全不仅具有经济战略意义,同时还具有政治战略意义,因此,新疆粮食安全对国家安全的保障至关重要。本研究以新疆全区为研究对象,在对研究区进行自然条件、气候水文、社会经济及粮食安全现状研究的基础上,采用熵权法计算得到权重,利用物元模型对新疆2006-2015年的粮食安全发展态势进行时空序列的综合评价,包括对各指标层(生产、消费、流通)与单个指标的安全状况评价;同时,采用障碍度模型,经过诊断得到阻碍新疆粮食安全发展的障碍因子,理清影响粮食安全发展的主导因素,最后,结合新疆区域特征,为粮食安全可持续发展提出具有针对性的政策建议。主要研究结论如下:(1)2006-2015年新疆粮食安全等级变化:基本安全(III)-基本安全(III)-基本安全(III) 比较安全(II)-安全(I)-比较安全(II)-比较安全(II)-安全(I)-安全(I)-安全(I),新疆粮食安全状态整体水平较好,没有年份处于临界安全、不安全级别,且相对于基本安全的关联度逐渐减弱,而相对于安全等级、比较安全等级的关联度在增强,说明十年间新疆粮食安全状态发展态势良好。(2)2006-2015年新疆粮食安全各因素层(粮食生产、粮食消费、粮食流通)关联度等级均不同程度地上升,从基本安全等级跳跃到安全等级,大部分所处状态不稳定,都有转化的可能,表明各因素层发展态势良好。(3)新疆粮食安全状况空间存在差异,全区实现供需平衡。粮食产区状况最安全,有昌吉州、塔城地区、伊犁州等;粮食销区如乌鲁木齐市、克拉玛依市等,由于其粮食消费、流通安全状况良好,从而实现全区粮食安全。(4)新疆粮食安全主要的障碍因素是粮食生产因素,粮食生产因素的障碍度逐渐减弱,粮食消费与粮食流通的障碍度逐渐加强,2006-2009年粮食生产因素的第一障碍因子是农业机械化总动力、第二障碍因子是化肥施用量;2010-2015年影响粮食安全的主要障碍因子主要是成灾面积占受灾面积比,人口自然增长率。(5)新疆粮食安全的发展应当结合各地区的区域性特点,发挥资源优势,在政策有利支撑的条件下,提高粮食生产能力,实现新疆粮食安全的可持续发展。
[Abstract]:Food security is the foundation of people's livelihood. Only by realizing food self-sufficiency can we ensure the steady development of social economy, and then be able to gain a firm foothold in the complex and changeable international situation based on the domestic market. The problem of food security has always been the cornerstone of ensuring the social stability of the country, and it is the first of the three economic security issues that need to be faced at present, which determines whether the country can stand on its own feet, whether the people can strengthen themselves, whether the society can be stable, and whether the economy can develop. At present, Xinjiang is in a critical period of grain production capacity, and is facing great historical opportunities. Rich land resources determine its huge grain production potential, and it is the province with the most room for grain production. The state wants to turn Xinjiang into a national grain reserve base, give full play to its advantages of rich land resources, and ensure that the food safety of 1.3 billion people is guaranteed for a long time. Xinjiang food security has not only economic strategic significance, but also political strategic significance. Therefore, Xinjiang food security is very important to the guarantee of national security. This study takes the whole region of Xinjiang as the research object, on the basis of the study of natural conditions, climate, hydrological, social economy and food security in the study area, the entropy weight method is used to calculate the weight, and the matter-element model is used to evaluate the development trend of food security in Xinjiang from 2006 to 2015, including the evaluation of the security status of each index layer (production, consumption, circulation) and a single index. At the same time, the obstacle degree model is used to obtain the obstacle factors that hinder the development of food security in Xinjiang, and the leading factors affecting the development of food security are clarified. Finally, combined with the regional characteristics of Xinjiang, some targeted policy suggestions are put forward for the sustainable development of food security. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the change of food security grade in Xinjiang from 2006 to 2015: basic security (III)-basic safety (III) / relatively safe (II)-safe (I)-relatively safe (II)-safer (II)-safe (I)-safe (I), Xinjiang food security status is better, no year is in the critical safety level, unsafe level, And the correlation degree relative to the basic security is gradually weakened, but compared with the security grade, the correlation degree of the comparative security level is strengthening, which indicates that the development trend of Xinjiang's food security is good in the past ten years. (2) the correlation degree of various factors (grain production, grain consumption, grain circulation) in Xinjiang from 2006 to 2015 has increased to varying degrees, jumping from the basic safety level to the safety level. Most of the states are unstable, and there is a possibility of transformation, which indicates that the development trend of each factor layer is good. (3) there are differences in the spatial situation of food security in Xinjiang, and the balance between supply and demand is realized in the whole region. Grain production areas are the safest, including Changji, Tacheng, Yili and so on. Grain marketing areas such as Urumqi and Karamay have achieved food security in the whole region because of their good grain consumption and circulation security. (4) the main obstacle factors to food security in Xinjiang are grain production factors, the obstacle degree of grain production factors is gradually weakened, and the obstacles to grain consumption and grain circulation are gradually strengthened. The first obstacle factor of grain production factors from 2006 to 2009 is the total driving force of agricultural mechanization. The second obstacle factor is the amount of chemical fertilizer. The main obstacle factors affecting food security from 2010 to 2015 are the proportion of disaster area to affected area and the natural growth rate of population. (5) the development of food security in Xinjiang should combine the regional characteristics of various regions, give full play to the advantages of resources, improve the grain production capacity and realize the sustainable development of food security in Xinjiang under the condition of favorable policy support.
【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F326.11

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